The Buffalo Bills established supremacy over the AFC East in Sunday’s thrashing of the Miami Dolphins at home in the most highly anticipated game of Week 4. Now the Bills take their show global and across the pond to London, where Jacksonville has spent the last two weeks, to kick off an intriguing Sunday of Week 5.
There’s quarterback uncertainty again this week, including educated guesses on the true health of Joe Burrow, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Then there’s the situation in Pittsburgh, where backup Mitch Trubisky might be an upgrade over starter Kenny Pickett.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers, the undoubted game of the week, will hopefully deliver a high-quality Sunday Night Football contest following uncompetitive Thursday and Monday night games the last few weeks.
The Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks will be enjoying byes in Week 5, so here are my thoughts on each of the 14 games for Week 5 in the NFL, starting with Thursday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.
My picks are 14-4-1 using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| TNF |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 5 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Bears vs. Commanders
Ron Rivera wins the coaching blunder of Week 4 for his decision to not attempt a two-point conversion on the road in Philadelphia with the game on the line and no time on the clock. He instead chose to play overtime against the better team despite this Thursday night game looming.
Sam Howell still takes too many sacks and holds on to the ball for too long, but the efficiency numbers remain solid for him overall. He’s 17th in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE out of 34 qualified quarterbacks.
The Bears rank 20th in pass rush win rate and haven’t been able to get to the quarterback much, which should give Howell plenty of time to carve up a poor secondary with his plus offensive skill players.
The Bears saw a dead cat bounce offensively against a terrible Denver defense, but Justin Fields still took four sacks in the contest. Sack avoidance has been a major problem for Fields even though the Bears are seventh in pass block win rate.
Fields should have time to throw against the Commanders, but there’s no clear angle for me to bet.
Verdict: Pass
The Passes
Saints vs. Patriots
New England lost its two best defensive players when Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez went down in last week’s loss to Dallas.
The wheels are quickly coming off for the Patriots this season; Mac Jones was benched against the Cowboys following three turnovers and two Cowboys defensive touchdowns. Last season, New England could effectively run the ball and play defense despite an anemic passing attack.
The Patriots couldn’t run at all in Dallas or New York, and it ranks 22nd in rushing success rate and 29th in rushing EPA/play.
Derek Carr wasn’t close to healthy against the Buccaneers and it cost them the game. Until we get more on Carr, or the sportsbooks allow me to bet against both teams, I’ll be passing.
Verdict: Pass
Panthers vs. Lions
Imagine telling someone last year that Detroit would lay nearly double digits and it wouldn’t seem crazy.
As someone who's long been a Frank Reich believer as a head coach, I’m running out of excuses for this lifeless Carolina offense. The talent is really bad — the offensive line is 32nd in pass block win rate and the wide receiving room is maybe the worst in the NFL — but Reich hasn’t made life easy at all for Bryce Young.
Young has struggled in sack avoidance, he hasn’t hit any explosives and the Panthers don’t really have much of a chance to keep up with Jared Goff indoors. Goff’s passer rating was 14 points higher at home last year than away — his 23-3 TD-INT ratio dropped to 6-4 in road games. The Lions offensive line is a blossoming unit, too.
You’d be buying at the absolute peak of the market on Detroit to bet them here though, and I can’t get to this number.
Verdict: Pass
Giants vs. Dolphins
I wrote last week that the market overreacted to the Giants' dismal offensive showings against two elite defenses — San Francisco and Dallas — and that the Seattle defense was a solid get-right spot given the lack of havoc they create.
Then the Seahawks sacked Daniel Jones 10 times.
Miami’s defense really can’t be trusted to cover a big double-digit number like this and you’d be selling at the absolute floor of the Giants after they were blown out in three of four games. But the difference in skill-position talent and offensive line blocking is astronomical in this game.
Good luck blitzing this Dolphins offense given how quickly Tua Tagovailoa is releasing the ball.
Verdict: Pass
Packers vs. Raiders
Until we’re able to get more information on Jimmy Garoppolo, this is one of the easier passes on the board. He remains in the concussion protocol and I want no part of Aidan O’Connell after he fumbled three times and was sacked six times by Khalil Mack alone.
The Packers offense has struggled over the last few weeks, but the Raiders can’t run the ball and their defense creates no havoc.
Verdict: Pass
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The Leans
Ravens vs. Steelers
Pittsburgh has had the worst offense in football so I’m not too concerned about potentially losing Kenny Pickett to injury. We’ve seen Mitch Trubisky be competent at times and his floor may actually be higher than Pickett’s at the moment.
Trubisky won’t solve Pittsburgh's issues on the offensive line, or with the coaching or in the running game, but he can do enough to keep the offense functional and inside the number against an injury riddled Baltimore offense that has yet to put a full 60-minute performance together.
The Steelers' defensive front no-showed last week in Houston, but betting underdogs in the offensively challenged AFC North should continue to pay all year.
Lean: Pittsburgh +4.5 (bet if Trubisky starts)
Bengals vs. Cardinals
Unless you are Joe Burrow or his doctor, it’s really hard to know when he’s going to be 100%.
The Bengals are also bottom 10 in rushing success rate and have just three pass plays of 25+ yards in 2023. That is tied with Carolina, Las Vegas and New England for worst in the NFL.
Given the talent of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to win one-on-one downfield, three big plays all year are remarkably poor. Burrow didn’t complete a pass further than 10 yards downfield against Tennessee.
This is the ultimate buy low on Cincinnati if it gets below three, but I still don’t want to lay points with an injured Burrow on the road. No idea how to price him, but this total is probably too high at 45.
Lean: Under 45
Chiefs vs. Vikings
We’ve reached the time of the year when we have “What’s wrong with the Chiefs?” discourse.
Like the Bears game, this is an excellent spot for the Chiefs to get right and take advantage of a terrible secondary and mediocre pass rush.
The Vikings offense should have no problems moving the ball and scoring on Sunday though. The backdoor will be consistently open, and I’ll be looking to play against Kansas City live once the Chiefs get off their elite scripted portion of the game.
Verdict: Target Minnesota live north of +7 after Chiefs scripted plays
Jets vs. Broncos
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a quarterback get more praise for a negative EPA per play performance than Zach Wilson against an average Chiefs defense at home on Sunday night. The Jets offense averaged less than seven yards per attempt and had just a 52.9% series conversion rate on series that began with pass plays.
This market opened at 40 and immediately jumped to 43. I understand that the Broncos defense just made Justin Fields look elite and has been by far the worst in the NFL through four weeks. But this total spike feels like an overreaction to the Jets as well. Justin Simmons should return for this game, which is a major boost for the Broncos.
I’m looking to play against the total move to the over, but want to see if this keeps going up before locking in a wager.
Leans: Under 43, Broncos -2.5 or better
The Picks
Jaguars vs. Bills
This is an unprecedented spot with Jacksonville playing in London for the second consecutive week. Days after Buffalo had the most emphatic and important win of the NFL regular season thus far, it has to travel in a huge rest-disadvantage spot.
Jacksonville’s offense continues to underwhelm relative to both preseason expectations and market perception. The Jags haven’t been able to run the ball at all and the pass offense is around league average. They’ve gotten poor offensive line play — 29th and 30th in pass and run block win rate, respectively — and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been efficient or consistent despite a handful of flash plays.
One key injury to monitor in this one is safety Jordan Poyer. The Bills secondary lost cornerback Tre'Davious White for the season, while Poyer missed the Miami game due to injury.
Jacksonville is getting healthier along its offensive front, its secondary is considerably improved and it’s time to sell high on Buffalo.
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Colts vs. Titans
The market is too low on the Indianapolis offense given its explosiveness with Anthony Richardson.
It hasn't always been pretty for Richardson from a clean pocket, but the Colts should have their full offensive line back for this contest. They also could benefit from the return of Jonathan Taylor.
Shane Steichen didn’t have Richardson throw downfield at all in his first five quarters, but he showed against the Rams that he’s capable of pushing it downfield more.
The Colts secondary has real holes that can be exploited and is lacking depth at cornerback. The Titans offense impressed against the Bengals last week despite a mismatch in the trenches on paper. Tennessee could have scored more points if it wanted to, but the defense was so dominant that more points weren't necessary.
With Richardson now pushing the ball downfield more, that means two things.
He’ll be going against the weakness of the Titans defense, but he’s also more likely to make mistakes and turn the ball over. The Colts have flown over in all three games on the faster turf this year — at home or in Houston — and the offensive explosiveness makes 42.5 too low.
Texans vs. Falcons
It appears the Desmond Ridder experience has reached its limit.
Many were excited about the prospect of the Falcons in the offseason because of their dominant offensive line and talent around Ridder. He just needed to be serviceable — he’s been anything but.
Ridder is bottom five in success rate and second to last in EPA + CPOE composite. Only the injured version of Joe Burrow is worse.
The vaunted Falcons running attack is eighth in EPA per rush and just 16th in success rate. This offense isn’t good enough to warrant being a favorite when you consider how much better Houston is at quarterback.
The Texans completely overhauled their roster and are still trying to figure out who their best players are. Nico Collins and Tank Dell look like a solid receiver duo, and C.J. Stroud will get a lot of clean pockets in this game. The Falcons remain below average in pressure rate and pass rush win rate, which means another solid game for the rookie quarterback could be in the cards.
The sample is tiny, but opponents are 7-2 to the over on the team total when playing a team coming back from London without the bye, as Atlanta is here.
Another reason to like Houston as an underdog.
Eagles vs. Rams
This is a "choose your own adventure" handicap.
On one hand, it’s absolutely true that the Eagles have major advantages in the trenches on the offensive and defensive lines and should be able to control the game there. That’s the case most weeks, including last week’s game against the Commanders, when Sam Howell picked them apart.
I’m just not sure how good the Eagles defense really is to warrant them laying over a field goal to Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Philadelphia hasn’t been successful against a plus passer in years. It was a major criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defenses during his tenure and we’re going to figure out if Sean Desai has made any improvements come Sunday. Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and even Jared Goff have diced up this Eagles defense over the last two seasons.
Stafford is playing at an elite level. The Rams may get Cooper Kupp back and the Eagles have run extremely well from a turnover luck perspective. Jalen Hurts’ success rates as a passer have slipped considerably this season as well.
There are regression indicators popping up everywhere for Philly, and I’m not sure the market has bumped the Rams offense enough.
Pick: Rams +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Cowboys vs. 49ers
Dak Prescott has the lowest average depth of target out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. He’s cut down on the interceptions and tight-window throws dramatically as a result, but I’m not sure if that is the best way to attack San Francisco's defense.
The Niners defense sat on all the underneath stuff the last two seasons and completely shut down an elite Dallas offense in both playoff meetings. Now, the two sides will meet with new coordinators, and that’s the key matchup for me.
Dallas’ offense is moving the ball at an elite level, and with some better drive finishing, could easily beat the 49ers. The Cowboys have struggled mightily in the red zone, but their series success rate numbers and yards per drive numbers show that this offense is still humming.
The Cowboys have a ton of balance too, as the run offense is a top-eight unit by EPA per rush and success rate.
San Francisco has a ton of speed on its offense and the skill position players are elite, but Brock Purdy has beaten up on two bad defenses in the Cardinals and Giants. That has inflated San Francisco in the market; he’ll face a lot more pressure on Sunday as Dallas plays this game within a field goal.
The 49ers are marginally better and at home, but this line has touched four at some shops and I don’t agree with it being that high.
