We're onto my NFL picks for Week 5.
The Ravens put the NFL on notice on Sunday night with a demolition of a Bills team that previously seemed unimpeachable. Now, the Bills will look to bounce back with a road test against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. We also get our first international game of the season on Sunday morning, with the Jets and Vikings facing off in London.
The Lions, Chargers, Eagles and Titans will all be on bye this week, so we’re left with 14 games to break down. Here are my thoughts on all of them, starting with an NFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football.
My picks are 10-13 using lines listed in the bets section of this post. Get more of Action Network's NFL predictions.
NFL Picks Week 5
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 5 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
We were reminded last week how much of a crapshoot Thursday Night Football can be with penalties, injuries and unprepared players and coaches on a short week. The Buccaneers enter this game against the Falcons with tons of injury questions, making this a difficult game to handicap.
Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are all dealing with injuries, and the Bucs signed Sterling Shepard to the active roster as insurance so Tampa Bay could be shorthanded in its wide receiver room on Thursday. Offensive linemen Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke and Graham Barton are all listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, Atlanta could be without center Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary for the second straight week, which is terrible news for Kirk Cousins, who has struggled under pressure this season. Cousins ranks just 23rd in Pro Football Focus' passing grades under pressure with one big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays. The Buccaneers rank third in blitz rate, and Todd Bowles will give Cousins a ton of different looks to make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
With PFF’s third-ranked coverage unit backed by breakout star Zyon McCollum, the Buccaneers can trust their defensive backfield to hold up one-on-one. The Buccaneers also got defensive tackle Vita Vea back on Sunday, which is huge for their run defense. They'd also love to see stud safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back on the field here.
Trends will support the under for a Thursday Night Football game between divisional opponents, and I wouldn’t mind looking in that direction here. I also like the Buccaneers as a teaser piece, going up from +1.5 to +7.5. For now, though, I don’t have an official bet on this game as we wait for more injury news for both teams.
Verdict: Lean Under 43.5; Use Buccaneers as a Teaser Piece
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Passes
The Jets offense struggled mightily last week against the Broncos’ elite defense, and it doesn’t get any easier against the Vikings’ top-ranked defense by DVOA this week. Aaron Rodgers has shown flashes of elite play, but he ranks just 17th in EPA+CPOE on the season. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense will take advantage of an offensive line missing right tackle Morgan Moses; rookie Olu Fashanu allowed five pressures and finished with a 32 PFF pass-blocking grade last week.
Sam Darnold continues to impress with 11 touchdowns to three interceptions through four games, ranking third in yards per attempt and EPA+CPOE this year. The Jets have struggled to generate pressure, ranking 25th in pass-rush win rate, and Darnold has been lethal from a clean pocket this season.
International games always add an extra element of uncertainty, and I’m not rushing to bet on this game at the current numbers. I’d be intrigued by the Jets at +3 or better, and I don’t hate New York as a teaser leg, but this is a pass for now.
Verdict: Pass
So much for D’Andre Swift being phased out of Chicago’s rushing attack. Swift had his best game in a Bears jersey last week with 165 yards from scrimmage. If Chicago can find any consistency on the ground, it would be massive for Caleb Williams, who has struggled to find his footing. The No. 1 pick ranks just 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks with 5.6 yards per attempt.
The Panthers rank dead last in pressure rate and 26th in PFF’s coverage grades, so this is another friendly matchup for Williams to exploit. Perhaps he can find some consistency in downfield passing, having completed just 3-of-22 passes of 20+ air yards this season.
Andy Dalton has given the Carolina offense a measure of consistency, but this is a difficult matchup on the road against a Chicago defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate and eighth in coverage, according to PFF.
I’m in line with the market on this game, and I don’t see much value here.
Verdict: Pass
The Jaguars are in a pathetic state right now, with Doug Pederson putting his players on blast, saying, “As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays, right?” I’m sure that will go over wonderfully in the locker room. However, the 0-4 Jaguars are favorites this week due to injury uncertainty on the Colts side.
Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor both suffered injuries last week, which completely changes the Indianapolis offense's dynamic. The Colts defense is already in rough shape with DeForest Buckner and Julius Brents on IR, and Kwity Paye and Kenny Moore are now listed as questionable.
If Jacksonville loses this game, Pederson will probably be fired, and I’ll be excited to back them in Week 6. For now, this game is an easy pass from a side and total perspective.
Verdict: Pass
I came into this season wanting to fade both of these teams, and nothing I’ve seen through four weeks has changed that. Dak Prescott has failed to live up to last season’s MVP-level numbers, ranking just 22nd in EPA+CPOE, and the Cowboys are an easy offense to scheme against with CeeDee Lamb as the only consistently threatening weapon.
The Cowboys are also suddenly dealing with injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. With DaRon Bland already on IR, this defense has lost its teeth. Dallas ranks just 27th in DVOA and 24th in EPA on that end this season, and the run defense has been especially problematic, which the Steelers will look to exploit.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have a swarming defense that ranks sixth in EPA and seventh in DVOA. However, their schedule has included Kirk Cousins (in his first game off injury), Bo Nix, a hobbled Justin Herbert and Joe Flacco. Prescott represents a significant step up in class, even with the current state of the Cowboys offense.
I can make compelling cases for either side here, which probably means it’s a game to pass on from a betting standpoint. Even without Parsons and Lawrence, though, I don’t mind Dallas as a teaser leg this week.
Verdict: Pass
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Week 5 Leans
The Ravens looked like a juggernaut on Sunday night as they dismantled the Bills, and their run-heavy approach should pay dividends here against a short-handed Bengals defensive line. Cincinnati has Trey Hendrickson, B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins all listed as questionable, while Myles Murphy and McKinnley Jackson are on IR.
Cincinnati’s offense has begun to heat up against putrid defenses in the last two weeks, having scored 30+ points against Washington and Carolina. However, Baltimore’s defense just made Josh Allen, who had terrorized the NFL through the first three weeks, look human. Joe Burrow has averaged just 215 passing yards per game against the Ravens in his last four appearances, failing to throw for more than one touchdown in any of those games.
Over the last two seasons, games with totals of 50+ points have gone 16-4 to the under (80%). That extends to 34-14 (71%) over the last two seasons. This year, totals of 50+ points have gone 4-0 to the under, hitting an average of 13.6 points per game. In the current NFL scoring environment, totals in this range are very often priced too high.
I’ll wait to make sure the Bengals aren’t rolling out a complete skeleton crew on the defensive line, but I lean toward the under in this divisional matchup.
Verdict: Lean Under 51 or Better
One week ago, the Bills looked like far and away the best team in the NFL. However, the Ravens exposed some of their fatal flaws on Sunday night, employing a run-heavy approach and relying on an elite defense. This week, Buffalo gets an excellent bounce-back opportunity against a Houston team that can’t exploit it the same way.
The Texans have struggled to move the ball on early downs this season, ranking 28th in early down success rate. They’re far too committed to running the ball on early downs, resulting in a high rate of obvious passing situations for C.J. Stroud. So far, 28% of the Texans’ first downs lead to third-and-longs in the first halves of games, which is 27th in the NFL.
Stroud hasn’t been able to provide the same third-down magic as last year and is having a bit of a sophomore slump. He ranks 24th out of 37 qualified quarterbacks in highly catchable throw rate per Fantasy Points Data, and his deep ball accuracy has declined. Last year, he led the NFL in deep ball completion rate and yards per attempt. This year, he ranks 24th in completion rate and 23rd in YPA.
Buffalo’s defense struggled to contain Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson last week, but it’s still elite against the pass, ranking sixth in DVOA and EPA. Unlike the other teams Houston has faced this season, the Bills have the personnel to somewhat contain the explosive Nico Collins with elite cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford.
The Bills offense should also be able to bounce back here. Josh Allen still ranks second in EPA+CPOE this season and will be by far the most challenging competition Houston has faced. The Texans rank outside the top 10 in pass defense DVOA, EPA and success rate.
The Texans’ three wins have come by a combined 12 points, and they’ve come against three teams who are a combined 4-8 this season. According to Nick Giffen's data, Houston ranks as the luckiest team in the NFL after his expected scores had the Jaguars winning the game last week.
The Bills, meanwhile, won their first three games by a combined 64 points, including a 37-point win over the same Jaguars team the Texans barely escaped last Sunday. Buffalo is the much better team right now, and I’ll back them to right the ship after a disappointing loss to the Ravens.
UPDATE: The Bills' injury situation keeps getting worse throughout the week. WR Khalil Shakir, DT Ed Oliver, and S Taylor Rapp were all ruled out on Friday. DT Austin Johnson still isn't practicing, while OT Dion Dawkins, CB Taron Johnson, and LB Terrel Bernard are all limited participants.
I bought out of my Buffalo position due to the mounting injuries, but I'll still track it as an official pick for my record here since it's been published all week.
Verdict: Lean Bills ML
The Dolphins desperately miss Tua Tagovailoa. Mike McDaniel is now 1-6 in games without his star quarterback, averaging a measly 15.8 points per game. The Dolphins showed no signs of life offensively on Monday night, posting a horrifying 27% offensive success rate. For context, the Jets were dead last in the NFL last year at 35.6%.
Miami finally reached the end zone with 3:36 left in the fourth quarter, their first touchdown since the first quarter of Week 2. This offense still has elite weapons, but that doesn’t matter without a quarterback who can get them the ball. Tyler Huntley has a 57% off-target throw rate on passes of 10+ air yards, by far the highest in the NFL.
The Patriots, meanwhile, rank 29th in offensive DVOA and 28th in success rate. They’re dealing with severe issues on the offensive line, ranking 30th in pass blocking per PFF, and Jacoby Brissett was pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks against the 49ers. Even when he’s not pressured, this offense has a dearth of receivers who can separate. New England has scored one touchdown over its last two games.
This is the lowest over/under of the 2024 season, but it’s still not low enough. It’s difficult for the market to line totals low enough once we get into this range; the under is 32-12-1 (73%) in games with totals of 37 or fewer points since 2020. I’m waiting for now to see how the market handles this total, as I’d love to get back to 36 or 37 here, but I lean toward the under.
Verdict: Lean Under 35.5
I’m intrigued by the Cardinals catching over a touchdown in this game, as I’m still a believer in their offense long-term. Kyler Murray ranks seventh in EPA+CPOE this season, and Marvin Harrison Jr. has game-breaking potential at wide receiver. However, I’d need Trey McBride back on the field since the Arizona offense missed his presence over the middle. Head coach Jonathan Gannon said “It’s looking good” regarding McBride’s ability to clear concussion protocol.
Arizona’s defense still has massive flaws, but the hope is that rookie Darius Robinson can make his debut soon. Fellow rookie cornerback Max Melton also needs more snaps on defense, and that’s a change the Cardinals can make on that end that would pay dividends with how well he’s played this season.
San Francisco still has tons of injury issues with Christian McCaffrey and Javon Hargrave on IR, and Fred Warner suffered an ankle injury last week. He’s the highest-graded player in the NFL this season by PFF, so his status bears monitoring.
According to Evan Abrams, Murray is 26-16-2 (62%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in his career and has gone over .500 ATS as an underdog in each of his first six seasons in the NFL. Since entering the NFL, he’s the second-most profitable underdog quarterback, behind only Jared Goff.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals +7.5
I’m still very high on the Seahawks this season, but they’re in a brutal spot this week.
Seattle played in a back-and-forth shootout against Detroit on Monday Night Football and now must turn around on a short week against the Giants, who have been off since Thursday. That’s a massive four-day rest advantage for New York.
This game doesn’t quite qualify for the luck rankings criteria, but it’s worth noting that Seattle is seventh in Nick Giffen’s Luck Rankings, and the Giants are 28th. Seattle could also still be shorthanded on defense after Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams all missed the game on Monday.
Underdogs of +6 or higher are an incredible 14-2-1 ATS (88%) this season, and I’m intrigued by the Giants given their rest advantage in this spot. I’ll wait for now to see if this number somehow hits 7.
Verdict: Lean Giants +6.5
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NFL Week 5 Picks
Jayden Daniels has set the league on fire through the first month of the season, leading the league in EPA+CPOE and adjusted completion rate. I won’t blame any Commanders fan for being excited about the rookie quarterback. However, I believe it’s essential to consider his competition.
The Giants (17th), Buccaneers (25th), Bengals (26th) and Cardinals (32nd) all rank below average in dropback success rate defensively. Over the last two weeks, Daniels has faced the Cardinals (30th in PFF pass rush) and Bengals (32nd).
The difficulty ratchets up this week against the Browns, who had the league’s best pass defense last year by success rate. Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been quite as elite this year, ranking 11th in dropback success rate, but I’m still banking on defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz coming up with a great plan to attack Daniels.
The Commanders rotated between veteran Cornelius Lucas and third-round rookie Brandon Coleman at left tackle last Sunday, and they’ll both be overwhelmed against Myles Garrett, who ranks third in pass-rush win rate this season despite dealing with various ailments.
Deshaun Watson has had a rough start to the season, but he finished last week with an 88.5 PFF passing grade despite his paltry counting numbers. He hit Amari Cooper on an 83-yard touchdown that was called back on a phantom holding call, which likely would have been the game-winning play against the Raiders.
The Commanders’ defensive woes are still tremendous, and they rank dead last in pass defense EPA this season. Cleveland’s offensive line has been a significant weakness this season, but the Commanders rank just 26th in PFF pass rush grades, and I don’t expect them to overwhelm Watson in the pocket.
It’s worth noting that Nick Chubb has been cleared to resume practice. I don’t expect him to return this week, and he’s not part of my handicap, but that would significantly boost the Browns offense.
Ultimately, this is the best buy-low, sell-high spot on the board. The spread for this game was Browns -3 over the summer and Commanders -1 entering last week. Getting Cleveland over the key number of 3 is a tremendous value.
Verdict: Bet Browns +3.5
Over the first four weeks of last season, the Broncos ranked dead last in defensive EPA/play. Fans were calling for Vance Joseph’s head. Through four weeks this year, however, the Broncos rank fourth in defensive EPA/play, and Joseph has led one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL. Per Fantasy Points Data, Denver has an aggressive defense, owning the third-highest blitz rate and second-highest man coverage rate.
That Broncos defense will present plenty of challenges for Gardner Minshew and the Raiders, especially if Davante Adams misses another game. Even if Adams returns, he’d be facing All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who has owned their matchups in recent years.
Las Vegas found some success running the ball last week, but it still ranks dead last in rushing EPA. That will put Minshew consistently behind the sticks against an aggressive Denver defense.
Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been underwhelming at best, ranking 31st in success rate and leading the NFL in three-and-outs per drive, according to FTN. Bo Nix has a 37.9% passing success rate this year, which ranks 31st out of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
However, Sean Payton should be able to manufacture some offense against a Raiders secondary that ranks dead last in PFF's coverage grades. Bo Nix's numbers are underwhelming, to say the least, but it's worth noting that he's faced four defenses that rank top-half in DVOA against the pass. Now, he gets the Raiders, who rank 25th.
The under is 32-12-1 (73%) in games with totals of 37 or fewer points since 2020. In addition, high-scoring games have been rare in the Denver altitude as of late. The Broncos are 17-10 to the under at home over the last four years and 48-29-1 (63%) since 2015.
The Raiders have ten of their last eleven games over the Broncos, and it's time for Denver to exact revenge. Antonio Pierce seems to be losing his grip on the locker room, and with tons of injuries, the Raiders are in rough shape entering this game. I'm trusting Payton at home to get the win in a low-scoring game. With points at a premium, take the Moneyline over the spread for Denver.
Verdict: Bet Broncos ML and Under 36.5 Points
The Packers fell short at home against the Vikings last week, but I was incredibly impressed with their offense. Despite two missed field goals and six turnovers (including two on downs past the Vikings’ 40-yard line), Green Bay still posted 29 points against the top defense in the NFL by DVOA. Now, they face the Rams, who rank 31st.
The Rams have struggled mightily in coverage this season, and they might have the worst starting cornerback trio in the NFL. Outside corners Tre’Davious White and Cobie Durant rank 98th and 103rd in PFF’s coverage grades (out of 107 qualified), while slot corner Quentin Lake doesn’t fare much better at 86th.
Jordan Love will test this pass defense early and often. He ranks second in the NFL in deep throw rate behind only Anthony Richardson and put together his best Brett Favre impression last Sunday after showing up to the stadium in his jersey. Love looked somewhat rusty in the first half coming off the injury, but he looked more consistent after halftime as the Packers nearly rallied for the comeback win.
Matt LaFleur should have a field day with his diverse run scheme against a Rams defensive line that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards. Los Angeles has a young group up front and ranks 20th or worse in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. That puts them at a huge disadvantage against the Packers’ top-ranked pass-blocking offensive line by PFF grades.
I believe the Packers can name their number in this game, and we’ll see an offensive explosion from LaFleur’s group. The Rams should be able to do their part offensively with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to keep this from becoming a full-scale blowout and ensure Green Bay has to keep its foot on the gas for all four quarters.
Verdict: Bet Packers Team Total Over 25.5 Points
The Chiefs are 4-0, but according to Nick Giffen, they’ve been the second-luckiest team in the NFL through four weeks. Let’s review their results this season:
- One-score win over the Ravens after Isaiah Likely’s toenail touched out of bounds on what could have been the game-tying or game-winning play
- One-point win over the Bengals after a 4th and 16 pass interference put them in field goal range
- One-score win over the Falcons after Atlanta failed to convert a 4th and 1 play at the Chiefs’ 16-yard line with 56 seconds remaining in the game
Last week’s win over the Chargers was well-deserved, but the Chiefs have had a lower offensive success rate than their opponent in two wins this season. This is much closer to a 2-2 team than a 4-0 squad, and that’s before factoring in Rashee Rice’s unfortunate injury.
Rice was quickly becoming one of the most important weapons in the NFL, and he ranked third among qualified receivers with 3.16 yards per route run this season. He’ll be out for the foreseeable future, and this Chiefs offense is left extremely barren at the skill positions with Isiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown also out. Travis Kelce turned back the clock somewhat last week, but he’s posting career lows in yards per reception and yards per route run. It’s difficult to bank on him at this point in his career.
Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off two straight losses by a combined five points, but they had a higher offensive success rate than the Falcons last week and were unlucky to lose. Derek Carr has continued to look great in the new-look Klint Kubiak offense, grading out as the best quarterback in the NFL by PFF.
Kubiak has Carr operating on play-action on the third-highest rate of dropbacks in the NFL, and he’s the league’s highest-graded passer on play-action. That’s an excellent way to coach around a flawed offensive line and mitigate a Steve Spagnuolo defense that blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
The Saints also rank top five in offensive DVOA and EPA, and they have an excellent secondary featuring Tyrann Mathieu, Marshon Lattimore, and breakout star Alontae Taylor. New Orleans ranks seventh in PFF’s coverage grades, and it has the secondary to stymie a Chiefs offense that’s incredibly short on difference-making pass-catchers.
For what it’s worth, Patrick Mahomes is now 38-44-2 ATS (46%) as a favorite of more than a field goal. He’s 25-8-1 ATS (76%) in all other spots. These are the spots we want to fade Mahomes in, especially with a limited amount of skill position talent around him.
Verdict: Bet Saints +5.5
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