Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you're able to get the bets in as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 5 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
By everything we've seen so far, this is a huge mismatch.
The books seem like they haven't caught up to how good Seattle is. If the Seahawks go to Detroit on Monday Night Football and play close or win, as I think they might, the spread at least goes to -7.
The Giants defense is solid, but my only worry is that the defensive line has a tough matchup in front of it against Seattle's offensive line. Dallas was able to mitigate that last Thursday and showed that New York can be schemed against.
Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has made life incredibly easier for Geno Smith. Seattle has a top-eight DVOA ranking for both the run and pass, both of which I expect will continue. Defensively, first-year head coach Mike Macdonald calls the plays and hasn't missed a beat, leading Seattle to a top-three unit against the run and pass, according to DVOA.
New York's offensive line is horrendous and given that it has to play in a stadium that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, Daniel Jones could be in for a long day.
I'm expecting this to move to Seahawks -7 and beyond if Seattle beats Detroit on Monday night, so I'd recommend getting in on -5.5 while it's still there.
The injury list for this game is looking potentially ugly.
For the Saints, Alvin Kamara is playing with broken ribs, Chris Olave is in a walking boot, Taysom Hill injured his rib, and offensive linemen Cesar Ruiz and Erik McCoy are both out. That's just the offense. On defense, the Saints are feeling the losses of Tyrann Mathieu, Willie Gay and Alontae Taylor.
The Chiefs' injuries, while not as large as their counterparts, include many impact players in Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and now Rashee Rice, who went down with a reported torn ACL.
For an offense that built its entire passing attack around Rice, who was making a case to be considered a top-15 wide receiver, it'll make Kansas City even more vulnerable. I'd argue the Chiefs have a bottom-five WR corps without Rice, behind even Carolina and Pittsburgh.
Both of these squads have extraordinary defenses. New Orleans enters this week with a top-five DVOA and didn't allow a touchdown to Atlanta in Week 4. Kansas City has been great against the run this season and totally shut down the Chargers on Sunday. And don't forget, dating back to Derek Carr's time with the Raiders, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows all about the Saints QB's tendencies.
The Chiefs' offense hasn't exactly been tested all season. All four defenses they've played against have been average at best.
Can the Saints' offense find a hole in Spagnuolo's defense? Not only that, can a broken O-line hold up against Chris Jones?
For trends, for games with a total below 44, Saints head coach Dennis Allen has hit the under 57% of the time. He's at the same clip for road games as a head coach. We've also come to expect that primetime games are prone to reach the under. In 14 years, the under has hit 60% of the time.
The total for this game has already dropped from 45 on Sunday morning to 43 and even 42.5 on some books. I'd keep an eye out for anything between 40 and 44.
