October football means we're starting to get a feel for how the NFL season will shape up.
Crisp leaves, cool autumn breeze, jack-o-lanterns and the Cowboys playing a marquee game with the season on the line yet again — does it get any better than that?
After a tough start, it's been a great couple weeks for us in the picks column. We finished +3.95 units last week and now sit at +9.19 units on the season, a 15.7% ROI. We're continuing to take some risks — lots of escalators this week — but those long shots add up in the bank account when they hit!
Remember, the point of an escalator is betting an angle we like and aggressively playing alternate lines. If we're right about our main bet, that next alt line is then closer and more likely to hit by definition. So, our bet is providing us value by doing the work for us — just like an escalator! I'd typically split my bet something like 60% of my bet size on the main play, 25% on the first escalator and 15% on the top level.
We've got four escalators in play for Week 5, so let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 5 Picks
Bills vs. Texans Moneyline Pick
Bills (+100)
Books are effectively labeling this game a coin flip, with money coming in on both sides, but this is the one play I've had in ink since Sunday as it's a great spot to buy low on a team I believe in and continue to fade one I don't.
Both defenses look good, but not great — top 10, but not top five. And that's fine! But it's the way those defenses match up with the opposing offense that has my attention.
Buffalo's defensive weak spot is its run defense. The Bills are especially shorthanded at linebacker, and we saw Derrick Henry gash them last week. But Houston's rushing attack continues to be tepid and the Texans offensive line is struggling through some injuries, with Laremy Tunsil an especially big question mark. Stefon Diggs will be up for this game, but C.J. Stroud hasn't been great.
Houston's run defense is outstanding again, like last year, but its secondary remains beatable and its middle of the field defense could get exposed in this game against a Buffalo passing attack that ranks third by DVOA. Josh Allen is 25-13-2 ATS in his career (66%) as anything under a field goal favorite, and even better as an underdog outright if that's where this closes.
Even if you ignore the jerseys, this is just a great spot historically to back a good team off a blowout loss. Teams with a 60% win rate or better, coming off a 20+ point loss, are 65% ATS in the following game over the past two decades. That includes an impeccable 40-12-1 ATS (77%) on the road, like the Bills.
Buffalo is good, and though there are injuries, we've seen Sean McDermott's Bills handle that just fine in the past. I'll play the moneyline at +100 and expect the Bills to take care of business.
But I'm not stopping there.
Six of the nine Texans losses since the start of last season have come by double digits, with those six losses by an average of 19.3 PPG. When Houston loses, the Texans often aren't even competitive. The Bills have seven wins of 20+ points since the start of last season.
Time for an escalator! Give me Bills -9.5 (+350, FanDuel) and Bills -19.5 in case we get one of those 20-point blowouts (+1060, FanDuel).
Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under Pick
Under 36.5
You know I love an ugly, nasty under.
If you tailed last week, we played the Dolphins under on Monday night, had it all the way and got screwed late. With just 28 points on the board and under four minutes left, Miami scored a garbage-time touchdown, then got tackled for a questionable safety and got a penalty on the ensuing free kick that somehow gave Tennessee the ball at Miami's 10-yard line for reasons (??!), where the Titans scored a touchdown on fourth down in the final seconds to bust the under.
I'm mad.
But suffice to say, that under was the right play every time, so we're going back to the well.
Miami is averaging 11.3 PPG on the season. Excluding the one full game with Tua Tagovailoa, that drops to an awful 8.3 PPG, with games of 10, three and 12 points. Since Tagovailoa left hurt, Miami has scored exactly one touchdown on 28 drives — that garbage-time one — with nine turnovers, mostly on downs. Ugly. For his career, Tyler Huntley games average under 33 PPG and are 8-2 to the under.
The Patriots are at just 13 PPG themselves. Neither team has topped 20 points this season, and both offenses rank bottom six both running and throwing by DVOA. Neither defense has been great, but both defenses are talented and clearly have an advantage in this matchup.
And then there are the usual trends that love these ugly low unders.
Totals of 38 or below that drop 4.5 or more points from the lookahead line (45 here) are 63% to the under. Totals at 37 or below since November 2019 are 37-13-1 to the under (74%), including 3-1 this season.
How about one step further? What's the opposite of an escalator, maybe a mineshaft (copyright Matt Moore)? In those games with a total 37 or below, 30 of the 51 finished with a total at 30 or below. That's 59% of the time we get a total snoozefest, like the Dolphins gave us for 56 on minutes Monday night.
Miami owes us some money. Play the under 36.5 (grab 37 if it pops, as it's a key number) and put part of your bet on under 30.5 at +200 (FanDuel) for our first mineshaft bet.
Panthers vs. Bears Player Prop
Chuba Hubbard Over 58.5 Rush Yards
The total is falling in this game with heavy Chicago winds expected, and a lot of sharp folks are backing the Panthers in what is effectively the Bryce Young Bowl, hopefully not actually featuring Young.
But if the Panthers keep it close or win and it's a windy game, doesn't that mean they'll have to run the football?
Chicago's defense is legit. The Bears rank top five by passing DVOA defensively, and CB Jaylon Johnson has been especially good again. But the run defense has been surprisingly poor, bottom three by DVOA after such a strong finish last season.
The Bears have allowed 16 carries for 82 yards from Tony Pollard, 23 for 110 yards from Jonathan Taylor and 19 for 94 yards from Kyren Williams. These aren't hyper efficient games, but either way, Chicago is allowing serious volume by carries and yardage to the opposing RB1.
Carolina is still waiting on rookie RB Jonathan Brooks, but Chuba Hubbard is playing like an RB1 in the meantime. Behind a young, rapidly improving offensive line, Hubbard is running well with terrific yards after contact, and he's been a major beneficiary of the move to Andy Dalton. Dalton is competent, which means keeping the ball and moving the chains, and that means more rushing opportunities.
Hubbard had only six carries for 14 yards in the opener with Young, then 10 carries for 44 yards the next game. With Dalton, he's racked up 21 carries for 114 yards and 18 carries for 104 yards in admittedly more favorable matchups. He's one of only eight runners with multiple 100-yard games on the season. Hubbard ranks top 10 in rushing yards, and is the No. 6 PFF RB ahead of Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara.
Hubbard is good and getting good run, and he should see volume on a windy Chicago day against a beatable run defense. I think this line should be closer to 80, like some of the other top back.
Let's ride the Chuba-Hubba escalator: Over 58.5 rushing yards, then put part of our bet on 80+ yards at +245 (DraftKings) and a sprinkle on 110+ yards at +950 (DraftKings, playing instead of 100+ because that's just +600 for 10 yards fewer).
Packers vs. Rams ATS Prediction
Packers -3
Nothing super fancy here — just betting one team I love and want to keep investing in and fading one team I've been fading since before the season.
I was out on the Rams coming into the year because the offense was thin and top-heavy and the defense looked terrible. That's exactly what we've seen. L.A. ranks second to last by DVOA defensively, 31st against both the run and the pass. The Rams have allowed at least 24 points in every game, even against a moderate schedule in this lower-scoring NFL stretch.
The Rams have also seen their top-heavy offense fall short with immediate injuries. Green Bay's defense is improving but beatable, but the Rams don't have the receivers to challenge this secondary, and the blocking has been inconsistent at best with injuries.
As for the Packers, they somehow rank third in Offensive DVOA after four games, despite two of those games coming from Malik Willis, one with Jordan Love's return from injury and one on an ice rink in Brazil. Even with those setbacks, Green Bay ranks top 10 rushing and top five in passing. Once Love settled in last week, the Packers scored 29 points in barely one half of football against the league's top-ranked defense.
The Packers should score whatever they need to here.
Maybe that makes a team total over 25.5 the better play, and I don't mind that if this line gets past -3 and you lose the key number. But that's a touch high for me when we know Green Bay plays slow and runs the football a lot. I prefer the simple Packers -3 because we just have more ways to get there.
Don't pretend this is a road game either. There will be plenty of Packers fans in LA, supporting the much better team.
Just keep it easy: Packers -3.
NFL Week 5 Long Shots
Cowboys vs. Steelers Player Props
Justin Fields ATD (+185), 100+ Rushing Yards (+1200)
Sunday night isn't really a Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot against the Cowboys, but it does shape up as a nice matchup for the Steelers. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith falls asleep at night dreaming of running the football, and the Cowboys have the worst run defense in the league by DVOA. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been better under Smith, a staple for him, and the Steelers should be able to run, like they want to.
I was watching for Steelers rushing overs all week, but injuries in the running back room make that tricky. Instead, let's pivot to Justin Fields.
Dallas has allowed a QB rushing touchdown in six of its past 14 games — not great, Bob! — and Fields has all three of Pittsburgh's rushing touchdowns this season and half of their offensive scores on the year. I'll play for a Fields Anytime TD at +185 (DraftKings).
Hey, you know what we haven't seen yet in black and gold? One of those signature Justin Fields rushing games where he bites off a long one and scampers through the secondary.
Fields has at least 82 rushing yards in 23% of his career starts, which means one in four games put us in range of 100 with one more run. He's crossed 100 yards five times, 11% of his starts. Sprinkle 100+ rushing yards at +1200 (bet365) and let's have some Sunday night fun.
Ravens vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay
Derrick Henry 100 Rushing Yards & 2 TDs (+600)
I wanted the Ravens here and wish I had taken this game near a coin flip Sunday before Baltimore's statement win, but near the key number in another kitchen sink spot against a tough Bengals team, it's hard to find value. Instead, I'll use this angle as a proxy for a Baltimore win.
We played this angle in Week 2 and it looked like we had a shot. Derrick Henry had 80 yards and a touchdown with a double-digit lead heading into the fourth quarter, and we were setup well — until the Raiders inexplicably came back and won the game.
So what happened next? The Ravens won their next two games, and sure enough, Henry produced. He had 151 rushing yards and two scores in one win and 199 yards and two scores in the other — hitting this SGP in two Baltimore wins.
Henry has 20 games of 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his career. No other NFL player has even half that since Henry entered the league in 2016. But here's the key — all but two of those 100-yard, two-touchdown games came in games where Henry's team won. In Henry wins, he's reached these marks a remarkable 26% of the time, implying that this angle is playable at anything past +300 as a proxy for a Baltimore moneyline anytime we expect a Ravens win.
Cincinnati's defense has been miserable, bottom 10 against both the run and the pass. The total for this one is pretty high for an AFC North game, especially in a windy spot, but that should mean plenty of chances for Henry to rumble. He's found the endzone in all four Ravens games.
Sprinkle another 100-yard, two-touchdown Henry game as an aggressive proxy for a big Ravens win at +600 (Caesars).
Raiders vs. Broncos: The Futures Pick To Make
Broncos To Win AFC West +3500
I like the Broncos at home this week, but I'm not sure I need it. The Raiders have won eight straight in the rivalry and we're at the key number in what's expected to be a low-scoring game. I don't need Denver -3.
Why do I like the Broncos? Easy, defense.
Denver's defense is by far the standout unit in this game. Vance Joseph's aggressive unit has been terrific, especially a great secondary led by lockdown corner Patrick Surtain and emerging star safety Brandon Jones. The Broncos defense ranks top five by DVOA, allowing under 14 PPG.
I ranked the 13 different 2-2 NFL teams this week, and two of them play here. That means one of them will be 3-2 by the end of Sunday, and could be just a game out of the division if a shorthanded Chiefs team loses Monday night.
I'll sprinkle Broncos +3500 to win the division (Caesars) as something of a natural escalator for a Denver moneyline. We'll still have a lot of work to do even with a Denver win and a Kansas City loss, but that number is just way too long this early in the season.
Denver's defense is good enough to keep games low-scoring and close and give Bo Nix and the offense a chance in most games. It's boring, but it's a formula for competency — and if Patrick Mahomes gets hurt or the Chiefs offense continues to slog through games, competency could be enough in a bad division if the Chiefs stumble.
NFL Week 6 Lookahead Pick
Lions -2.5 at Cowboys
Do you remember the last time the Lions and Cowboys played? Dan Campbell does.
It was Week 17 just this January. Detroit trailed 20-19 late after scoring a touchdown and lined up to go for two and the win. A brilliant play call did the job, but the conversion was erroneously waved off when backup lineman Dan Skipper supposedly failed to report. Detroit lost and dropped out of the No. 1 seed, and that meant the Lions didn't get to host the NFC Championship Game.
I think Campbell and this team remember — can we get odds on a Dan Skipper Anytime TD next week — and will be ready to take it out on Dallas in a very favorable matchup.
The Cowboys, you recall, have the worst run defense in the NFL. That's bad news against the league's best offensive line and a team that wants to win by running the football, especially if they get C Frank Ragnow back after the bye week. Detroit could run for 300 yards in this game.
The Lions are home resting this week, while the banged-up Cowboys play a tough Pittsburgh squad Sunday night and are already without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, DaRon Bland and Brandin Cooks. Road favorites coming off a bye week are 60% ATS over the past two decades.
I like Detroit and will happily play the Lions under the key number. It could flip to the other side if Dallas loses in Pittsburgh Sunday night. Give me Detroit -2.5 (FanDuel).
