I've gone 8-for-9 on my two NFL player prop pieces this season, including 4-for-5 in Week 2 and 4-for-4 in Week 4.
Let's keep it rolling in Week 5 with more player props. Find out how I would play Tee Higgins, Andy Dalton, Tre Tucker and more.
Dr. Nick's NFL Player Prop Bets
- WR Tee Higgins Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards (-108 at FanDuel)
- QB Jacoby Brissett Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
- QB Andy Dalton Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-117 Caesars)
- WR Tre Tucker Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
In two games this year, Tee Higgins has 16 targets and has caught nine passes, but has gone 0-for-3 on deep passes from quarterback Joe Burrow, who has a decreasing completion percentage over expectation as pass depth moves from under five yards, to under 10 yards to 10 or more yards.
With sustained 13 mph crosswinds, and gusts up to 25 mph, deeper passes should decrease in both volume and accuracy.
There's also the fact that Burrow and Higgins are at their shortest pass and receiving depths of their careers so far in 2024. Burrow's intended air yards per target is just 6.3 yards, while Higgins' aDOT in two games is at 9.9 yards, a full yard below his previous low of 10.9 yards. And while there could be room for positive regression, it's unlikely to come on a windy day.
Baltimore struggles against the deep pass, but with a potentially reduced deep ball volume, that could play into the Ravens hands. Higgins has a negative xYAC since 2021, when fellow wideout Ja'Marr Chase joined the team, and the Ravens are 11th in defensive DVOA against shorter passes. Given Higgins' hamstring troubles, he may struggle to generate YAC for a bit longer as he sits at the lowest YAC per reception of his career so far in 2024.
For the most part, it seems we're sweating a deep ball in this one, which I feel good about given the weather and Burrow's wrist.
The Patriots haven't asked Jacoby Brissett to rush much this year as he has just one designed run on 11 rushing attempts.
The rest of Brissett's rushing attempts have been scrambles and kneel downs, with six of those scrambles coming under pressure. Thankfully for Brissett, he gets a reprieve from all the pressure he's faced lately, as the Dolphins average a 10% lower pressure rate than Brissett's past three opponents — the Jets, Seahawks and 49ers.
So while Brissett had his highest rushing output in a game against Cincinnati, which generates a pressure rate even lower than Miami, the Bengals have been horrendous against opposing quarterbacks. Miami, on the other hand, has allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterback, despite a game against Josh Allen, as well as three other quarterbacks with more rushing yards than Brissett on the season.
Given this is also New England's best chance for a win, there's some kneel down opportunity here as well.
In Andy Dalton's two starts, he's faced the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 23rd and 30th in pressure rate. In fact, Dalton ranks last in pressure-rate faced among qualified quarterbacks.
The Bears, on the other hand, have generated the seventh-highest pressure rate, which should be problematic for Dalton.
Dalton has the lowest yards per attempt against pressure among 33 qualified quarterbacks, even worse than Weeks 1-2 starter Bryce Young. When under pressure, Dalton has thrown the ball much deeper, at an aDOT of 12.1 yards, compared to just 6.5 yards with a clean pocket. That's not ideal considering the 17 mph winds with gusts up to nearly 30 mph.
And when Dalton does throw shorter, the Bears rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA against shorter passes.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Caleb Williams faces very similar pressure/no-pressure splits as Dalton, but the Panthers generate pressure at the lowest rate in the NFL, which should give Williams plenty of time to find his targets at shorter distances and run the clock.
Overall, there's about three fewer pass attempts in windy games, meaning more running plays that should also eat clock. And since both of these defenses rank in the bottom eight against the run, there should be plenty of focus on the rushing attacks.
I've bet on Tucker's over every week this season, but I'm going back to the well here for a fifth straight week, and this might be my favorite spot.
Tucker has performed best against single-high safety looks, and Denver runs those at a top-five rate with a skew toward Cover 1 over Cover 3, which has been Tucker's most beatable coverage over his career.
Against man coverage, of which Denver plays the most in the NFL, Tucker has been targeted on 23.3% of routes, compared to just 13.5% against zone.
Denver cornerback Pat Surtain could shadow Jakobi Meyers, leaving Tucker as arguably the receiver who should see the most targets. Even if Tucker has a lower volume or a lower catch rate, he can clear this on one catch given both his deep ball and YAC ability.
I also like parlaying over on his yards with under on his receptions, as Denver is stingy against receivers. You can get that +550 at BetMGM, and I'll play it for one-quarter unit.
