Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Amari Cooper
ATD +200
Cooper leads the Browns in targets and receiving touchdowns through three games, and it isn’t particularly close.
Now, Cleveland faces the Falcons, who have already given up six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, including four to the opposition’s WR1. Cooper has three red-zone targets and two touchdowns this season in that role.
The Falcons have been decent against the run this season, and Cleveland’s offense currently goes through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. If Atlanta is successful, the Browns will turn more toward the air, which would in turn help Cooper become more of a focus in the red zone.
Odds ranged from +110 to +140 last season for Cooper, and he was +180 against Pittsburgh in Week 3, which means we’re getting an extra bonus here from bet365.
Garrett Wilson
ATD +275
I went back and forth between Wilson and Elijah Moore for this one. It’s either the numbers or the talent. In the end, I went with the numbers.
Wilson is second in the NFL in red-zone targets with nine, and his snap counts have increased every week. The rookie is also eighth in overall targets through three games, with only the game’s elite receivers ranking ahead of him in that. All of those players, like Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs, are around +120 to score a touchdown this week.
The Jets have scored 16 fewer points than expected this season, while Pittsburgh has given up 17 fewer than expected. That makes this a good regression spot.
Wilson is as low as +210 at other books, so we’ll take the extra value this week at DraftKings.
Geoff Swaim
ATD +550
For anyone who has followed me, you know I’ve been pushing Swaim as the Titans’ TE1 since the start of last season. He’s now getting the snaps that indicate he’s in that role.
Swaim leads Titans tight ends in catches and snaps this season. He’s a better blocker than Austin Hooper, which is why he’s been on the field more.
The Colts defense is coming off a massive win against the Chiefs, but it’s still struggling against the pass. Indianapolis has allowed five passing touchdowns this season, and three of them have been caught by tight ends.
Swaim is as low as +320 at some books, so +550 is a great price at Caesars.
Trevor Lawrence
ATD +800
This is mostly a value play. Lawrence is +800 at FanDuel but +400 at some other books. Part of the reason why the odds are larger than usual is the Eagles’ strong defensive line, but I like our chances here.
Lawrence has five red-zone rushing attempts in three games this season, which may not seem like much but only trails Jalen Hurts, Marcus Mariota and Lamar Jackson. Each of those QB’s have odds of +250 or less to score every week.
The Eagles have faced Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz this season, and none of them are a red-zone threat like Lawrence. The Eagles gave up four rushing touchdowns to QBs last season, which means +800 is a strong price.
Mack Hollins
ATD +240
We cashed on Mack Hollins at +400 last week, and we’re going back to the well in Week 4.
Hollins has been a revelation through three weeks for Las Vegas, with 14 catches on 19 targets and a touchdown. He has also played 87% or more snaps in each game, and he has five red-zone targets this season, as well.
Davante Adams is still likely to get 10-plus targets per game, but he’s likely to be matched up with Patrick Surtain throughout this game. The Broncos allowed their first TD to a wide receiver last week, and it was San Francisco’s number-two option in Brandon Aiyuk.
Hollins is as low as +140 at other books, so we’ll take our action to FanDuel at +240.
