While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player props and will give out my best bets every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite player prop picks on Fridays. Through four weeks, I’ve gone 7-5 for +4.3 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 20 of 26 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading The Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 5!
Josh Allen
Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)
We hit this last week and I’m shocked FanDuel has decided to hang the same number. Once again, we’re taking Josh Allen to log at least 40 rushing yards against the Steelers.
The MVP front-runner has been putting the Bills on his back and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry (sixth in the NFL) on 30 attempts in 2022. He’s racked up 183 yards and has cashed the OVER for his rushing yard prop easily in 3-of-4 games. In Week 2, he only had 10 rushing yards on one attempt because the game was a blowout.
Dating back to last season (including playoffs), Allen has rushed for at least 40 yards in nine of his last 11 games. It may not be easy for Allen to pull this off, but the Steelers' defense hasn’t been sharp stopping QBs from running the ball thus far in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry).
Also, it’s worth noting that when these teams played each other in Week 1 last season, Allen rushed for 44 yards on nine attempts. I expect to see something similar again this week.
Dameon Pierce
Over 2.5 Receptions (+145, bet365)
One running back who is starting to turn heads is Texans bulldozer Dameon Pierce. The rookie burst onto the scene in the preseason and has slowly worked his way up the depth chart. Now, he’s starting to become an every-down back, which is why I love him to get at least three receptions vs. Jacksonville.
Pierce started the season off slowly as the Texans still tried to make RB Rex Burkhead a thing. The Texans were also facing the Colts and Broncos, two teams tough against the run.
Fast-forward to Week 3 and Week 4 and Pierce looks like the all-purpose back he was touted to be. In two games since he was given the starting role, he has played over 60% of the snaps and had eight catches on eight targets. In Week 4 against the Chargers, he exploded for six catches and was playing late in the fourth quarter. This bodes well facing a Jaguars squad that ranks 31st in total receptions allowed to RBs.
This line has sportsbooks daring you to take the OVER and I’m happy to oblige. If Pierce gets three or more catches, you’ll never get plus odds again — especially with QB Davis Mills' lack of downfield attempts (6.4 yards per pass, 27th in NFL).
Ryan Tannehill
To Throw An Interception (+105, DraftKings)
Eight QBs have plus odds to throw an INT in Week 5, including Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
While those four all have had some turnover issues recently, there’s a quarterback that I can’t overlook, and that’s Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill has three interceptions in four games so far this season, with a two-pick game in Buffalo in Week 2.
Part of the reason I’m betting on Tannehill to be inept is the opponent.
Washington may only have one interception this season, but its ability to get to the quarterback is elite with nine sacks in four games. The defensive line should be able to cause enough pressure to make Tannehill have to make quick decisions. This should allow the Commanders to pounce on an opportunity when Tannehill inevitably has to make a tough third-down throw.
At +105, there may be some better plus-money options out there — like Rodgers at +200 or better — but I trust the Commanders in this spot to show up at home and make the Titans' passing game difficult to execute.
