As we head into NFL Week 5, another round of shocking survivor pool eliminations and surprise upsets from underdog teams has shaken things up. In this article, we’ll cover key strategies for making your Week 5 NFL picks, whether you're locking in a survivor pool selection, assigning points in a confidence pool, or looking for upset picks to boost your chances of winning your weekly NFL contest.
At PoolGenius, we specialize in identifying top-value opportunities. We provide you with the tools to maximize your chances of success in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.
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NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks: Entering a High-Risk Week
As we approach Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, the elimination rates in survivor pools have reached historic levels, with less than 5% of entries still alive. This week presents another challenging hurdle for those who remain. Week 5 is shaping up to be one of the most difficult in recent years, with only three teams currently favored by more than 3.5 points and no team favored by more than a touchdown.
The biggest favorites of the week are:
- San Francisco (-7) vs. Arizona
- Seattle (-6) vs. NY Giants
- Kansas City (-5) vs. New Orleans
It's worth noting that San Francisco was the most popular pick last week, and Kansas City carries significant future value in upcoming weeks, making Week 5 a true test for survivor players.
Looking at the past decade, our database shows only three other weeks with three or fewer teams favored by more than 3.5 points at close:
- 2023, Week 9: Cleveland (-13), New Orleans (-9.5), Baltimore (-6)
- 2017, Week 5: Pittsburgh (-7), Philadelphia (-6)
- 2016, Week 8: Minnesota (-5.5), New England (-5.5), Dallas (-5)
In 2023, all three favorites won, but in 2017 (Pittsburgh) and 2016 (Minnesota), the most popular picks lost, each ending up over 35% in those risky weeks.
This week, Seattle is currently the most popular pick, sitting at 33% as of Tuesday, but that number is climbing. If Seattle becomes too heavily favored, the case for taking contrarian positions on riskier three-point favorites may become more appealing for those looking to stand out from the crowd.
Check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see which teams we’ve identified as the highest-value options for Week 5 in your pool.
NFL Week 5 Pick'em Pool Strategy: Capitalizing on Unpopular Upsets
As discussed in the survivor section, Week 5 is shaping up to be unique with so few large favorites. In fact, 11 of the 14 games feature a team favored by 3.5 points or less, creating a week full of closer matchups.
In games where the win odds for both teams are often between 40% and 60%, pick popularity becomes a key factor. Leveraging against the crowd can significantly improve your chances of standing out and winning in pick’em pools.
This week, for instance, among the eight games with a spread between -2.5 and -3.5, five favorites have between 78% and 81% pick popularity. These provide excellent opportunities to consider upset picks, as you'll get a substantial popularity discount on slight underdogs.
But which upsets should you target? Depending on your pool size, you might not need to gamble on five different upsets. Currently, Cincinnati (+2.5) has the best relative win odds among the less popular underdogs, though that could shift. Carolina, Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams, and the New York Jets are all close contenders, and any line movement or popularity shifts could change how you rank the value of these potential upsets in weekly pick’em contests.
Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product for specific recommendations for which value picks make sense based on the specifics of your pool.
Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024
Maximizing your chances of winning NFL survivor and football pick'em pools comes down to consistently stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, is navigating through the massive amounts of data and complex calculations involved—something most players don’t have the time, expertise, or interest to handle.
At PoolGenius, we take care of all the data collection and analysis for you, allowing you to compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Through our partnership with Action Network, you can use the links below to enjoy a no-obligation 3-day free trial and gain access to exclusive season discounts.
