NFL Odds & Picks
 | |
Sean Koerner: 74% of the action and 95% of the money has poured in on the over for this game. It makes sense, as both teams sailed over their Week 4 totals. However, I’m projecting this game closer to the opener of 43.5 points.
While the Seahawks' defense has been dreadful (31st in DVOA) and the offense has been one of the bigger surprises of 2022, we have to consider the fact that they just faced the Falcons and Lions, both of which rank outside of the top 20 in defensive DVOA.
The Saints possess the No. 9 defense in DVOA and should be able to cool off a hot Seahawks offense. Meanwhile, New Orleans will likely operate a more run-heavy and conservative offense with Andy Dalton making his second straight start for the injured Jameis Winston.
I’m fading the public here and going with the under.
| |
Sean Koerner: We debuted our NFL Luck Rankings this week and this matchup between the Titans and Commanders is one of my favorite to apply the concept.
The Titans have been the fourth luckiest team on the season — they are 2-2, but have played more like a 1-3 team. They own the second-worst point differential at -26. Plus, they are coming off a game in which they had the second luckiest outcome of Week 4, when they beat the Colts 24-17 but our expected score actually had the Indianapolis winning 24.9-20.7.
A lot of this had to do with Matt Ryan losing a fumble and throwing an interception that led to the Titans only needing to drive for around 30 yards for a touchdown after each turnover.
On the flip side, the Commanders had the third “unluckiest” outcome of Week 4, when they lost 25-10 to the Cowboys. Our Expected Score suggests the game should have been much closer as it graded as a 24.5-23.4 win for Dallas.
The Titans have been hit hard with injuries as Treylon Burks (toe), Zach Cunningham (elbow), Bud Dupree (hip) and Amani Hooker (concussion) have all been ruled out.
However, the public is all over the Titans here with 74% of the action on them. I’m projecting Washington closer to -1.
 | |
Sean Koerner: The Bengals rank 25th in our Luck Rankings while the Ravens rank 8th. That’s why it makes sense the public is all over Baltimore, with 56% of the action and 76% of the money on the home team.
However, the Bengals are much better than their 2-2 record indicates as they are one of six teams who have a point differential of +20 or better. Both of their losses were by a field goal.
With average one-score luck, Cincy would be a 3-1 team right now and their public perception would likely be much better. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 2-2, but have benefited from having the second-highest turnover margin (+5) on the season.
The Bengals also matchup well against their AFC North foes as they beat them by 20-plus points in both meetings last year.
The Ravens will be without top WR Rashod Bateman (foot) and edge rusher Justin Houston (groin), while the Bengals are expected to be at full strength.
The public perception of both of these teams is off and we should not be getting a key number of +3.5 here.
