I've made my NFL predictions for Sunday of Week 5. I'm backing three favorites against the spread and a player prop as part of my NFL predictions and picks.
NFL betting expert Chris Raybon has hit 56% of the bets he has tracked for a 7.31% ROI in his career at Action Network and is up over 160 units in the Action Network app.
In looking at the latest NFL odds, the 49ers are the biggest favorite of the slate at 7.5 points at home against the Cardinals, with the Seahawks next, laying 7 to the Giants at home.
On our public betting page, you'll see that the most popular team on the Sunday slate is the Cowboys, with 77% of bets on the spread, and I have a bet on that game today. The Cowboys are getting the biggest percentage of the money at 76% on the road against the Steelers.
On to my NFL Week 5 predictions and my NFL picks for Patriots vs. Dolphins, Colts vs. Jaguars, Bills vs. Texans, and Raiders vs. Broncos on Sunday.
NFL Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chris Raybon's Week 5 NFL Picks and Best Bets
Pick Against the Spread for Jaguars vs. Colts
- Colts vs. Jaguars Spread: Jaguars -3
- Colts vs. Jaguars Total: Over/Under 46
From betting on a team to end its streak of futility against a division foe to backing one to keep their streak of dominance going. The Jaguars are 8-0 straight-up (SU) and 8-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight at home against the Colts, covering by 20 points per game.
The trend is fascinating but largely meaningless, though there are a couple of factors that will carry over from the last few matchups and once again work in Jacksonville’s favor. The first is Trevor Lawrence tends to be at his best when going up against the single-high safety schemes that have fallen out of vogue a bit, but that Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley still swears by. Lawrence has posted over 8.5 YPA against Cover 3 over the past two seasons. He is averaging 7.1 YPA and 0.06 EPA against single-high coverage this season, compared to 4.5 YPA and -0.25 EPA/DB against all other coverages.
Bradley’s defense is down multiple key contributors – DT DeForest Buckner (IR-ankle), DE Kwity Paye (quad), CB Kenny Moore (hip), CB Juju Brents (IR-knee), to name a few – so Lawrence should be able to have success once again.
The Jags are due for some positive regression. Lawrence leads all qualified passers with a 12.2% rate of dropped passes. The Jaguars are 30th in third-down offense (25.0%) and 26th in the red-zone offense (42.5%), but they are 16th in early-down pass success rate and 12th in early-down rush success rate, which tends to be most predictive of future performance across all downs/situations.
Jacksonville is now 0-3 in one-score games, losing by margins of three, five, and four. They rank as the second-unluckiest team on the season in our Week 5 luck rankings, and already got a break with the announcement that Johnathan Taylor (ankle) will not suit up.
Pick: Jaguars -3 (-105)
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Spread Prediction for Bills vs. Texans
- Bills vs. Texans Spread: Texans -1
- Bills vs. Texans Total: Over/Under 47
Unlike the Bills, the Texans have rarely looked impressive in their 3-1 start, but that creates value in what sets up as a very good matchup for Houston.
The Texans are sixth in defensive DVOA overall and fourth against the run. Stopping the run is crucial in the Joe Brady era, as the Bills have pivoted to being a run-heavy operation with Brady at the helm. The run game looms even larger now that Josh Allen will be without his No. 1 receiver, Khalil Shakir (ankle).
Shakir is, by far, Buffalo’s best separator and most efficient receiver. He has caught 18-of-19 targets for 230 yards and two touchdowns this season and has caught an incredible 31-of-32 targets dating back to last season. Buffalo will have to lean more into its two-TE looks, but Houston is also No. 1 in DVOA versus tight ends.
Offensively, Stroud has the ability and weapons to put unique stress on Buffalo’s shaky safety tandem of Damar Hamlin and rookie Cole Bishop. The Bills defense is missing key players at all three levels: safety Taylor Rapp (concussion), linebacker Matt Milano (IR-biceps), DT Ed Oliver (hamstring), and DE Von Miller (suspension). Miller was only playing 25-30 snaps a game, but is still second on the team in quarterback pressures with 13. Oliver is third with nine. Meanwhile, Stroud gets a key piece back in Tank Dell.
The Texans haven’t won by margin all year despite going 3-1 and outgaining their opponents in all four games, so I don’t expect them to blow out Buffalo like the Ravens did, but Houston has what it takes on both sides of the ball to control this game.
Pick: Texans -1 (-105) | Bet to -2
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Player Prop Pick for Patriots vs. Dolphins
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread: Patriots -1
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Total: Over/Under 36
Rhamondre Stevenson started the year hot with outings of 25-120-1 and 20-81-1 in Weeks 1-2. But things have gone downhill since. He posted rushing lines of just 6-23-0 and 13-43-0 in Weeks 3 and 4 as the offensive line injuries started to mount.
The Patriots are down to 29th in PFF run-blocking grade (55.6) and could be even worse after placing center David Andrews (shoulder) and tackle Caedan Wallace (ankle) on IR this week. Aside from RT Michael Onwenu, the Pats are trotting out practice squad talent on the line. The situation is so dire that they flipped to underdogs at home against the lowly Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins.
On top of that, Stevenson is at risk of seeing a reduced workload after fumbling in all four games to start the season. Stevenson hasn’t averaged 4.0 yards per carry since Week 1, and he is unlikely to top last week’s 13 carries after fumbling in his fourth straight game, so I like this down to 52.5.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | Bet to 52.5
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Best Spread Bet for Week 5: Raiders vs. Broncos
- Raiders vs. Broncos Spread: Broncos -3
- Raiders vs. Broncos Total: Over/Under 35.5
Both of these teams have identical 2-2 records, but that’s where the similarities end.
The Broncos are 18th in overall DVOA, the Raiders are 27th. The Broncos have two top-five units (fifth-ranked defense, fourth-ranked special teams), the Raiders have two bottom-eight units (25th-ranked offense, 25th-ranked defense). The Broncos have a +7 point differential, the Raiders have a -19 point differential.
The Broncos have a +9.4 schedule-adjusted average point differential, fifth best in the NFL. The Raiders have a -9.7 schedule-adjusted point average point differential, fight worst in the NFL.
Denver’s defense ranks No. 1 in yards per play (4.2), No. 1 in sack rate (11.8%), No. 5 in pressure rate (30.3%), and No. 2 in Tackles For Loss (26).
This is a brutal matchup for a Raider offense that will be without its No. 1 receiver (Davante Adams, hamstring), No. 1 running back (Zamir White, groin), starting right tackle (Thayer Mumford, knee), and No. 2 tight end (Michael Mayer, personal) – not to mention multiple other O-line starters are questionable.
With an elite No. 1 cornerback in Patrick Surtain II and rookie Riley Moss grading out in the top 12, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has dialed up tied for the third-most snaps of man coverage, which is not good for Gardner Minshew.
- Minshew vs. zone: 80% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, +0.014 Expected Points Added per dropback
Minshew vs. man: 57.7% completion rate, 6.2 YPA, -0.01 EPA/DB
Bo Nix threw for only 60 yards last week, but he hasn’t taken a sack, thrown an interception, or turned the ball over since Week 2. The running game finally got going with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combining for 123 yards on 25 carries, and Nix has also proven to be a threat on the ground with 23-110-2 this season. Against a Raider defense that is ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd against the run, Nix is a good bet to look a lot more like he did against Tampa Bay in Week 3 (25-of-36 for 216 yards, 9-47-1 rushing in a 26-7 win).
Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-120) | Bet to -3 (-120)
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- Jets vs. Vikings Spread: Vikings -2.5
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread: Patriots -1
- Panthers vs. Bears Spread: Bears -4
- Colts vs. Jaguars Spread: Jaguars -3
- Bills vs. Texans Spread: Texans -1
- Ravens vs. Bengals Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Browns vs. Commanders Spread: Commanders -3
- Raiders vs. Broncos Spread: Broncos -3
- Cardinals vs. 49ers Spread: 49ers -7.5
- Giants vs. Seahawks Spread: Seahawks -7
- Packers vs. Rams Spread: Packers -3
- Cowboys vs. Steelers Spread: Steelers -2.5
- Saints vs. Chiefs Spread: Chiefs -5.5
