Monday, Oct. 14
6:30 p.m. ET: The Green Bay Packers are 3.5-point favorites entering their Monday Night Football game against the Detroit Lions. PointsBet's Matt Chaprales says the book has major parlay liability on the Packers, including one customer who's in line to win $48,000 on a $2,000 five-team parlay if Green Bay covers -4. The other legs of the parlay were: Cardinals moneyline in Game 5 vs. Braves, Nationals run line in Game 5 vs. Dodgers, Over 40.5 in Patriots-Giants, and Seahawks -2 vs. Browns. Overall, Chaprales said the book has "major parlay liability" on the Packers.
As we've reported via our tools, the Lions' opener of +6 got hit "early and often" by professional money, per PointsBet. Detroit is getting the majority of the money on the spread (70%) and moneyline (65%) at the Jersey shop.
DraftKings, meanwhile, will overwhelmingly need the Lions to cover and win outright tonight: 78% of their spread betting handle is on the Packers, along with 77% of their moneyline handle. Over 46 is also a popular bet at DK, getting 78% of the bets and 83% of the money.
Late Sunday Update
- 10:55 p.m. ET: The Titans (+1.5) attracted the most lopsided money at William Hill today, bringing in 80% before losing to the Broncos, 16-0. The Cowboys (-7) and the Jaguars (-2.5) were close behind with 74% and 72% of money in their respective matchups. Both lost outright.
- 10:26 p.m. ET: "It was a very good day," said CG Technology's Tony DiTomasso. "Winning the Dolphins game started the day off on the right foot." Results that fell the book's way included the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals and Saints covering while big-name losers like the Cowboys, Chiefs, Eagles and Rams destroyed parlays.
- 10:20 p.m. ET: The largest wagers today at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook were $22,000 on the Chiefs (-5) and $20,900 on the Chargers (-6.5), who are trail the Steelers 24-0 heading into the fourth quarter. Yikes.
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Who would have thought the highest scoring game of the week would be … Atlanta-Arizona? The Cardinals beat the Falcons, 34-33 (67 total points). Before the game, PointsBet noted that sharp action was coming in on over 51.5, which pushed it to 52. My reaction? There are so many other things to bet on! Turned into one of the best bets of the day.
- 7:21 p.m. ET: The New York Jets (+7) cover, edging out the Dallas Cowboys, 24-22. The Westgate SuperBook's Jeff Sherman says there weren't any big Cowboys bets, but the loss will knock out a large accumulation of parlays and teasers.
- 5:45 p.m. ET: Bookmakers are salivating over the Jets' 21-6 halftime lead against the Cowboys. It was the third-most bet NFL game of the day at the 100-plus William Hill sportsbooks, bringing in 14% of the money, 74% of which was on the Cowboys to make it the second-most lopsided spread by money. (The Titans were the most lopsided with 80%.)
- 4:20 p.m. ET: The Kansas City Chiefs lost their second straight game, falling 31-24 to the Texans. One bettor had a $22,000 bet riding on Kansas City (-5) to cover that would've won $20,000.
- 4:09 p.m. ET: The Miami Dolphins (+6) lose to Washington, 17-16, but cover the spread for first time this season. They were the last team not to have covered a spread this season.
Early Sunday Update
Someone's zero has to go in Miami today and the sharps have made their pick. According to Jeff Sherman at the Westgate SuperBook, smart money is backing Washington as 4.5-point favorites over the Dolphins.
Another interesting subplot is that the sharps are buying the Browns against the Seahawks. At the beginning of the season it looked like Cleveland would be a public darling, but a wonky start has the casual bettors selling.
Our data suggests that Seattle at Cleveland will be your 'Pros vs. Joes' game of the day. There are more tickets on Seahawks-Browns than any other game so far and 68% of the tickets are backing Russell Wilson and the 'Hawks.
Another market with a Sharps vs. Squares split is 49ers at Rams. Sherman says they've taken some respected money on the Niners while the public is backing the Rams.
Here's the breakdown of the other teams getting sharp action, per Sherman:
- Bengals (+10.5) at Baltimore
- Jaguars (-3) vs. Saints
- Vikings (3.5) vs. Eagles
- Steelers (+6) at Chargers
Public Remains in Love with the Chiefs
As usual, the betting public is all over the Chiefs. We've tracked over 13,000 bets on Texans at Chiefs and 67% of the bets are on Kansas City. Sherman says that the pro bettors at the Westgate are happy to take Houston, but their biggest bet of the day so far is on a $22,000 bet on Kansas City (-5) that would win $20,000.
The people at PointsBet are seeing a similar split on Texans-Chiefs.
"Sharp positions on Houston have driven the opener of Chiefs -7.5 all the way down to 3.5 despite 70% of the tickets coming in on Kansas City," PointsBet's Matt Chaprales said.
Friday Afternoon
This looks like it could be the week the public thought betting on the NFL was easy. The week when the lines look juicier than ever and in some cases they’re screaming “Get Your Free Money Here. Wait three hours and watch your money grow!” Why put your money anywhere else?
“The public is feeling good,” said PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales. “Their wallets are padded from last week by betting the Pats, Texans, Saints, Eagles and Vikings and they hit the Patriots again on Thursday night.”
Before gambling was legal outside Nevada, the easiest way to differentiate the public from the sharps was to look for instances where the tickets were on one side, while the money was disproportionately on the other.
Or the instances where the tickets were high on one team, while the line moved against them.
Those indicators are still valid, but in today's expanded world of legalized gambling, there's a bit more nuance to reading the market. There's a huge volume of sports bettors new to the market in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and almost all of them are casual or recreational bettors.
That’s why when the data on the money splits came in from PointsBet, FanDuel and DraftKings on Friday, I knew that the public was feeling their oats.
The Most Public Team
To no one’s surprise, the Cowboys, are the most popular side this Sunday. The public is happy to see Dak and Zeke as only 7-point favorites over the hapless Jets. As of Friday afternoon, 77% of the money was on the Cowboys at PointsBet, 85% at DraftKings and 86% at FanDuel. Our data, which gives a snapshot from sportsbooks all over the market, reports that 74% of the tickets are on America's Team.
Recency Bias
According to our Sports Insights data, 72% of the tickets are on the Seahawks (-2) to cover against the Browns.
It's easy to see why the public is backing Seattle here. The Seahawks just beat the Rams and the all-hype Browns are fresh off a blow-out loss to the 49ers.
The money for this game is as lopsided as you'd think. PointsBet says 72% of the dollars are on the Seahawks, FanDuel reports it at 79% and DraftKings has it at 88%.
The Dirty Birds
The Falcons certainly aren’t good, but are they 2.5 points better than Arizona Cardinals? Joe Q. Public says so.
The Dirty Birds from Atlanta are commanding 62% of the money from FanDuel, 78% of the money from DraftKings and 79% of the money from PointsBet.
Teddy's Time
Teddy Bridgewater is the toast of New Orleans, leading the Saints to wins over the Seahawks, Cowboys and Bucs.
This week, the Saints are 1.5-point underdogs against the Jaguars.
You’re kidding, right? Time to empty that wallet! Sixty-four percent of the tickets are on New Orleans, market-wide, and DraftKings and FanDuel each report that more than 75% of the money is on Teddy and his Saints.
Too Good To Be True?
The Titans aren't usually a team on the public's radar, but this week they get the benefit of playing the Denver Broncos.
Denver is a 2-point favorite and the public is acting like that line is too good to be true. A whopping 91% of the money at PointsBet has come in on Tennessee as slight road underdogs in Week 6.
Sharps vs. Squares
As usual, there are a couple of games where the Pros and Joes are seeing things very differently. I spoke with Eric Osterman over at the Westgate SuperBook to get an idea of which games the sharps have circled.
“They’re strongly on the Jags and Browns,” said the Superbook’s Eric Osterman.
Uh, those were the public’s two “Locks Of The Week!”
