The NFL betting market ebbs and flows. In Weeks 1-3 , it tends to be profitable to bet underdogs in a variety of situations as the market overreacts to one or two data points. Then, things begin to even out as the sample size grows larger in Weeks 4-5.
However, underdogs return with a vengeance in Week 6. Historically, it's one of the most profitable weeks of the entire season to bet underdogs, and it's the final time early in the season there's a reliable edge on underdogs across the board. According to our Action Labs data, Week 6 'dogs since 2005 have gone 130-102-7 (56%) against the spread.
It's easy to understand why underdogs thrive early in the season, but what makes them so profitable in Week 6? I believe it has a lot to do with the teams themselves. No team is going to make wholesale changes after one week, but after three, four or five weeks, the coaching staff will begin to alter what's not working. On the flip side, successful teams have put their success on tape for a few hundred plays, which will minimize some of their early-season edges going forward.
Whatever the reason, the bottom line is it has consistently been profitable to back underdogs in Week 6. I dug into our Action Labs data to find six A-graded trends with a cash rate of at least 60%.
NFL Week 6 Betting Trends
Week 6 'Dogs vs. Favorite with Winning Record
The answer to the "why Week 6" question may be as simple as the fact that there are an uneven number of games. There will be a lot of .500-caliber teams that are 3-2 after Week 6 because — barring a tie — you can't, you know, be .500 after five games.
Week 6 'dogs facing an opponent with a straight-up winning percentage of 60% or more are 87-52-6 (63%) since 2005, covering by 1.8 points per game.
Home teams that fit this trend are 35-21-1 (63%) ATS. Road teams are just as strong, boasting a 51-30-5 (63%) ATS mark. The trend is a nice 38-17 (69%) since 2015.
Eight teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Giants vs. Ravens
- Jets at Packers
- Falcons vs. 49ers
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Chiefs vs. Bills
- Cowboys at Eagles
- Broncos at Chargers
Filtering for opponents with a winning percentage of at least .750 instead of .600 improves the record to 57-29-2 (68%) with an average cover margin of 3.82 points.
Three teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Chiefs vs. Bills
- Cowboys at Eagles
Week 6 'Dogs Below 50% ATS
The fifth "swing game" means a lot of .500 ATS teams will be either 3-2 or 2-3 ATS after Week 5. You'll also have the occasional 0-5 or 1-4 ATS team that looks really bad. When a sub-.500 ATS team is a 'dog in Week 6, it's time to bet on some regression to the mean.
Week 6 'dogs below 50% ATS have gone 67-43-1 (61%) ATS since 2015, beating the spread by an average of 2.19 points per game.
Road teams have been superior with this trend, going 46-28-1 (62%) ATS. Home teams are 19-13 (59%).
The trend has become stronger since 2015, going 33-17-1 (66%).
Six teams fit this trend for Week 6 of 2022:
- Saints vs. Bengals
- Jaguars at Colts
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals
- Panthers at Rams
- Chiefs vs. Bills
Week 6 Non-Divisional 'Dogs
Divisional 'dogs tend to be profitable because familiarity results in tighter games than the quality of the teams would otherwise suggest, but in Week 6 we see the market struggle to gauge matchups where there is a lack of familiarity between the two teams. Non-divisional 'dogs have gone 96-61-5 (61%) ATS since 2006, covering by an average of 1.97 points per game.
At home they are a solid 32-24-1 (56%), but they really flourish on the road, netting an ATS record of 63-36-4 (64%).
Since 2017, the trend is even stronger, recording a 34-17-1 (67%) ATS mark.
Nine teams fit this trend for 2022:
- Saints vs. Bengals
- Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Giants vs. Ravens
- Patriots at Browns
- Jets at Packers
- Falcons vs. 49ers
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Panthers at Rams
- Chiefs vs. Bills
This trend gets even stronger when filtering for opponents that made the playoffs the year before. A playoff berth means absolutely nothing when it comes to covering games the next season, but the market seems to think otherwise at times. Non-divisional 'dogs facing a playoff team have gone 54-30-3 (64%) ATS since 2005, covering by 3.98 points per game.
Six teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Saints vs. Bengals
- Jets at Packers
- Falcons vs. 49ers
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Panthers at Rams
- Chiefs vs. Bills
Week 6 'Dogs +3 or More vs. Favorite With Winning ATS Record That Made Prior Postseason
Here we have a line-inflation trifecta: (1) The favorite is expected to win by a field goal, which seems safer than a number like +1.5 or +2.5. (2) The favorite has been covering more often than not, and (3) the favorite made the playoffs last season.
All it amounts to is a false sense of security.
Since 2005, Week 6 'Dogs +3 or better facing a favorite with a winning ATS record that made last year's playoffs are 40-18 (69%) ATS with an average cover margin of +5.25.
Home teams that fit this trend are 20-8-1 (71%) while road teams are 19-10-2 (66%).
Two teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Falcons vs. 49ers
- Cowboys at Eagles
Week 6 'Dogs in Low-Total Game
The market tends to overrate favorites in projected low-scoring games, which make it harder to gain the necessary separation on the scoreboard. We typically see this scenario play out when there is a large spread in a game with a low total. However, in Week 6, 'dogs of all sizes are profitable in low-totaled games. Since 2005, Week 6 'dogs are 75-46-3 (62%) in games where the total is 47 or below.
Road teams (49-28-3, 64%) have fared better than home teams (25-18, 58%) in this spot.
Since 2014, this trend has gone 37-18-1 (67%).
Nine teams fit this trend in 2022:
- Saints vs. Bengals
- Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Giants vs. Ravens
- Patriots at Browns
- Jaguars at Colts
- Jets at Packers
- Falcons vs. 49ers
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Panthers at Rams
Week 6 'Dogs Off a Loss of 7 or More Points
There's that recency bias we've come to know and love. Week 6 'dogs coming off a loss of a touchdown or more have gone 51-31 (62%) ATS since 2005, beating the closing number by 1.62 points per game on average.
Home teams are 20-9 (69%) in this spot while road teams sit at 29-20 (59%).
This is another one that's gotten stronger as of late, with a monstrous 35-15 (70%) ATS record since 2012.
Five teams fit this trend for 2022:
- Dolphins vs. Vikings
- Jaguars at Colts
- Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals
- Panthers at Rams
