Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Especially when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the Quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 38-35 for +10.2 units so far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank someone like Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings, as he finished 2022 with an NFL-leading +8.6 units on INT props and threw an interception in five of six games when he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on to throw an interception in Week 6.
This is a classic case of me betting on something because it’s “due.” And not because, “Well, it’s five games, he’s bound to throw one at some point”.
It’s because, according to our predictive analytics team featuring Sean Koerner and Nick Giffen, Stroud is the “luckiest” quarterback in the NFL for turnover luck. The Texans QB is near the top of the NFL with 16 “bad balls” thrown, just ahead of Brock Purdy as the only two QBs with 15 or more bad balls thrown and no interceptions.
That’s the “due” factor.
Now let’s look at the stats. The rookie is seventh in pass attempts per game but ranks in the bottom seven of QBs in completion percentage. Now, the Texans are facing a stout Saints defense that has a strong defensive line. The secondary is chipping in heavily with seven interceptions this season and at least one in four out of five games this season. Hell, even the game against the Bucs where Baker Mayfield looked as good as he ever did in an NFL uniform, the Saints still forced an INT.
I love the progress of Stroud and how he’s been competent in the pocket, but this is the week where the turnover dream ends.
This is not the Jalen Hurts we’re used to.
After almost winning the NFL MVP last season and only having six interceptions in 15 games, he now has four INTs in 2023 in just five games. Part of the reason is the influx of new Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, who has Hurts passing more at 33.6 pass attempts per game to 29.6 for his career. Four passes per game may not seem like much but with such a run-heavy offense like the Eagles, each attempt is crucial for an INT prop. The Eagles are also top of the NFL in total offensive plays per game, so their pace just invites opportunity.
As maligned as the Jets offense may be, the defense still keeps them in games. Their sound coverage in the secondary has resulted in five interceptions. Now, all five were from two games but from arguably the two best passers in the game in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Jets also will be missing some key players on defense like CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter. If the Jets can manage to put some points on the board, it would mean Hurts and the Eagles likely have to resort to more of a passing game script to maintain pace.
On the road, against an above-average defense that has only allowed one rushing touchdown all season, I like my chances on Hurts turning it over at MetLife Stadium.
