NFL Week 6 Luck Rankings Picks: 4 Games Fit Thresholds

Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
2. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 122-69-6 (63.5%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.

Last week, the unlucky New Orleans Saints failed to cover the 5.5-point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs, moving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 9-8-1 (52.8%) start ATS on the season.

There was also one Luck Total from last week, an under between Buffalo and Houston that did hit. Luck Unders are now 3-1-0 to the under, while Luck Overs remain 3-0-0 to the over for a 6-1-0 season so far on Luck Totals.

As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 15-9-1 (62%) on the season.

NFL Luck Rankings Week 6 Games

Bills vs. Jets

Monday, Oct. 14

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN

Luck Total: -5.3

This Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Jets is a Luck Under with a Luck Total of -5.3, but that barely crosses the -5.0 threshold.