Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 6 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 6 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Patriots
Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 93%
2. Ravens
Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
3. Chargers
Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
4. Cowboys
Matchup: Jets
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
5. Chiefs
Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
6. Packers
Matchup: Lions
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
T-7. Vikings
Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-7. Redskins
Matchup: Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 62%
9. Rams
Matchup: 49ers
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
10. Broncos
Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-11. Panthers
Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
T-11. Falcons
Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
T-13. Seahawks
Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
T-13. Jaguars
Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
T-15. Saints
Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
T-15. Browns
Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
T-17. Cardinals
Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-17. Buccaneers
Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
19. Titans
Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
20. 49ers
Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-21. Eagles
Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-21. Dolphins
Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 38%
23. Lions
Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
24. Texans
Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
25. Jets
Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
26. Steelers
Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
27. Bengals
Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
28. Giants
Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 7%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
T-1. Chiefs
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Texans
T-1. Browns
Spread: +2
Opponent: Seahawks
T-1. Packers
Spread: -4
Opponent: Lions
T-4. 49ers
Spread: +4
Opponent: Rams
T-4. Saints
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: Jaguars
T-4. Cardinals
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Falcons
T-4. Bengals
Spread: +12
Opponent: Ravens
T-8. Vikings
Spread: -3
Opponent: Eagles
T-8. Chargers
Spread: -7
Opponent: Steelers
T-8. Buccaneers
Spread: +2
Opponent: Panthers
T-11. Redskins
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Dolphins
T-11. Patriots
Spread: -17
Opponent: Giants
T-11. Cowboys
Spread: -7
Opponent: Jets
T-11. Titans
Spread: +2
Opponent: Broncos
T-11. Broncos
Spread: -2
Opponent: Titans
T-11. Jets
Spread: +7
Opponent: Cowboys
T-11. Giants
Spread: +17
Opponent: Patriots
T-11. Dolphins
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Redskins
T-19. Panthers
Spread: -2
Opponent: Buccaneers
T-19. Steelers
Spread: +7
Opponent: Chargers
T-19. Eagles
Spread: +3
Opponent: Vikings
T-22. Ravens
Spread: -12
Opponent: Bengals
T-22. Falcons
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Cardinals
T-22. Jaguars
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: Saints
T-22. Rams
Spread: -4
Opponent: 49ers
T-26. Lions
Spread: +4
Opponent: Packers
T-26. Seahawks
Spread: -2
Opponent: Browns
T-26. Texans
Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Chiefs
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
