NFL Week 6 Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Ready to get dirty?
Thursday night brings us our grossest primetime game of the season so far, and that’s saying something considering we had a Trubisky-Brissett showdown a few weeks ago. This week it’s Justin Fields and Carson Wentz, the latter of whom might not make it through the evening as the starter unless he can turn things around.
Are you thinking under? I’m thinking under.
These teams entered the weekend bottom five in offensive DVOA, and I do mean offensive. Chicago barely even remembers it’s allowed to pass, and Washington forgets to pass to its own team. The one thing the Bears do well is run the football, but that just happens to be the one thing Washington does well too. The Commanders are one of the worst in the league defending the pass but rank top 10 against the run.
I don’t see either offense having much success here, and Thursday night unders continue to roll. They’re 4–1 this fall after going 11–5 to the under last season, meaning the under has now hit in 15 of 21 Thursday nights (71%) since the start of last season.
You might hesitate with a total this low at 40, but our Action Labs data tell us that only makes the play even stronger. Thursday night unders with a total of 40 or below are 20–7–2 (74%), going under by 8.1 points per game. And in this sweet spot range with a total from 37 to 40, Thursday night unders are a ridiculous 18–4–1 (82%), under by 9.7 points per game.
Washington games have gone under 40 three times in a row, and Chicago games are under 40 three times already this season too. This total is only going one direction as we think about having to watch these stinky teams play all week, and you know darn well you’ll be watching Thursday night anyway, so we may as well lock in our under and get the 40 before it drops.
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Dylan Wilkerson: Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, we have another Thursday Night Football thriller on the cards.
After Jeff Bezos gave us Colts vs. Broncos, he decided to reward us with Commanders vs. Bears!
Both offenses have put their incompetence on display this season, both averaging fewer than 18 points per game. The Commanders only score on 26% of their drives, making them the least efficient team in the NFL. Tack on the Commanders offensive penalty issues with Justin Fields’ inconsistency and you have yet another primetime under.
Did someone say primetime under? Entering Sunday Night Football, games at night this season were 10-4 to the under and 104-73-3 since 2019.
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Cody Goggin:The Eagles have been scintillating this season as they remain unbeaten heading into a huge NFC East matchup on Sunday Night Football next week against the Cowboys. At 5.5-point favorites, there are high expectations for Philadelphia, but I’m looking to take the other side before this line moves during the week.
Philadelphia has been one of the best teams in the NFL so far this season, but it has also done this against one of the worst defensive schedules in the league. Jacksonville is the only team so far that the Eagles have faced that ranks above average in EPA per dropback.
Bet Cowboys +5.5 at FanDuel Right Now
This Dallas defense has been one of the better units in the whole league and have created a ton of problems with their pass rush. Matthew Stafford averaged -0.33 EPA per play against the Cowboys, and the Rams had just a 33% success rate. Dallas also has a strong run defense, ranking sixth in rushing success rate, which will make things even more difficult on Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles offensive line, while one of the best in the league, has been getting beaten up in the last couple of weeks. Jordan Mailata missed this week’s game and would be questionable to return next week. Jason Kelce and Landon Dickerson both left the game with injuries in Week 5 but were able to return. There's a chance that Philadelphia’s entire offensive line could play, but they likely will not be playing at 100%.
Even with Cooper Rush playing, this line is potentially too high. There is a strong possibility of Dak Prescott returning for this game, which would dramatically shift this line. I would take this down to +3 with Rush in and Cowboys -1.5 if Prescott plays. By taking it now, you are likely getting a +EV bet at minimum and possibly getting some great closing line value.
