We've already started making our NFL Week 6 picks.
Two of our betting analysts have identified their favorite Week 6 bets already. Check out the games they've already bet on below.
NFL Week 6 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Seahawks vs. Bengals
I was eyeing Seattle in this spot entering Sunday so I grabbed the line right away once I saw it at +3, making sure we get that key number. I think the Seahawks should be favored.
Seattle ranks in the top half of the NFL on offense, defense and special teams by DVOA, including top 10 both running and passing offensively. And the Seahawks have done that despite major injuries at key positions (offensive line and secondary). Now they're coming off this bye week with a chance to get healthier.
The Bengals played on Sunday and beat up on a bad Cardinals defense — that pushed this line up, but I'm not sure we learned much. Cincinnati entered the weekend bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and Arizona is the team everyone thought would get the No. 1 pick entering the season.
Geno Smith is 20-13-2 ATS (61%) as an underdog, and Pete Carroll is also 61% ATS as a 'dog. Road underdogs of 2.5-to-3 points are historically profitable at 55% ATS.
This is a good spot for Seattle. I think they could win outright, and I definitely want the key number.
Give me Seahawks +3.
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Seahawks vs. Bengals
By Ricky Henne
Joe Burrow’s calf sure looked fine on Sunday, didn’t it?
The word all week was that the quarterback was finally feeling like his old self. Sure enough, he was in vintage form against the Cardinals, going 36-for-46 for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Ja'Marr Chase also got going after complaining about his lack of targets, setting a franchise record with 15 catches for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
The Bengals dropped 34 points on Arizona after averaging 12.3 points per game over their first four contests, which was the second fewest in the league. Now they’ll look to keep things rolling against the Seahawks, who are coming off their bye.
Seattle’s defense looked dominant when we last saw them against the lowly Giants. It had 11 sacks and held New York to just three points, but don’t be fooled. The Seahawks’ success had way more to do with an inept Giants offense that averages the fewest points per game (11.5).
While Seattle shut down New York, it struggled mightily over the first three games against the Rams, Lions and Panthers. Those offenses averaged 29.3 PPG against them, and now they face a healthy Burrow and the rejuvenated Bengals.
Meanwhile, Geno Smith has proven last year wasn’t a fluke as the Seahawks average the seventh-most points per game (27.8). They also rank ninth in offensive DVOA, and are one of only six teams to rank in the top 10 in both pass DVOA (eighth) and rush DVOA (ninth). Seattle should have an advantage over the Bengals, who’ve given up at least 20 points in all but one game.
You can currently grab the over as low as 43.5, and I would take it up to 45.5. Jump now, though, as some books have already moved the line up to 46.
Pick: Over 43.5 | Bet to 45.5
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Colts vs. Jaguars
I've had this spot circled since the schedule came out. Indianapolis was my pick on The Lookahead on our Friday podcast, and I want to make sure you get it here too before the line moves.
Jacksonville had a big advantage on Sunday, playing a second straight week in London while the Bills flew in on Friday and looked the part — like they were still fighting off jet lag.
Buffalo was also playing without its top two corners and a handful of defensive linemen, and then lost star cover LB Matt Milano mid-game. Even with all those advantages, the Jaguars barely held on to win. The offensive line continues to have real issues and Press Taylor's offense isn't clicking.
And now that big advantage Jacksonville had flips to a disadvantage, one we've never seen in NFL history, as the Jaguars return home from two weeks overseas. We've consistently seen teams struggle returning stateside after playing in London without a bye.
The Falcons defense gave up a late drive on Sunday in that spot and fell behind before a comeback of their own. That's now 11-of-11 post-London teams who were tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week without a bye.
This might be a home-field disadvantage for Jacksonville, with Indy getting the easier travel. Trevor Lawrence is 2-6 ATS when he plays in warm weather (at least 77 degrees), as it should be at TIAA Bank Field. He's also 3-7 ATS as a favorite (30%), including 0-5 ATS when favored by four or more. He's 1-4 SU in those games as a big favorite, and I wonder if the Colts might just be the better team.
Shane Steichen is pulling the strings for Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor is back and this could end up a revenge spot for Gardner Minshew if Anthony Richardson is out — and that might be an upgrade, if anything.
Play this unprecedented schedule disadvantage for Jacksonville by grabbing Colts +5.5, or the best number you can find. This one is already moving.
Pick: Colts +5.5
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Eagles vs. Jets
By Ricky Henne
Can anyone tell me why the Eagles are favored by less than a touchdown?
Sure, the Jets looked competent in their 31-21 win over the Broncos, but they’re still the Jets. Anyone thinking they’ve turned the corner would be sorely mistaken. They scored exactly one-third of their 93 points on the year on Sunday, which is a major indictment of Denver’s defense.
Zach Wilson once again made too many ill-advised throws and boneheaded decisions, and he was bailed out by Breece Hall's breakout game. The running back totaled 194 yards of offense, highlighted by a 72-yard touchdown run.
Unfortunately, the Jets can’t rely on an encore performance. The Eagles give up the fewest yards per game on the ground (61.2) and rank first in defensive rush DVOA. Assuming Philly stymies Hall like they have every other running back, do you really trust the Jets to keep things close relying on the right arm of Wilson?
I didn’t think so.
New York is outclassed on both sides of the ball, and while Philadelphia hasn’t played at the same level from a year ago, I don’t think this game will be relatively close. The undefeated Eagles are beating teams by an average of 7.4 points per game, so I’m not sure why this number is less than seven.
I’m thrilled I got the Eagles at -6 as I expect them to be favored by at least a touchdown come kickoff.
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