With another game in London in Week 6, the NFL has set us up for a third consecutive week of football in four time slots on Sunday.
The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans are traveling across the pond to kick off Sunday action. Baltimore’s drops on offense led to yet another late collapse and blown fourth-quarter lead, while the Titans defense had no answers to stop either Gardner Minshew or Anthony Richardson in their divisional road loss.
Joe Burrow appeared healthier in the Cincinnati Bengals' win over the Arizona Cardinals, which could be the most-important leaguewide takeaway from Week 5 action. Or maybe the Cardinals finally crashed back down to earth after a surprisingly competitive start. Either way, we’ll learn a lot about Burrow and the Bengals when they host the Seattle Seahawks, who are coming off their bye week.
With the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers enjoying byes, here are my thoughts on each of the 15 games for NFL Week 6.
Normally I start with Thursday Night Football, but I have a Broncos vs. Chiefs pick so you'll find that game further down the story.
My picks are 16-7-1 (69%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 6 Picks |
The Passes
49ers vs. Browns
Deshaun Watson hasn’t been particularly good, but the drop-off to P.J. Walker is pretty steep. The Dorian Thompson-Robinson experiment might be over but until we get more clarity on the Watson rotator cuff situation, this one is a pass for me. Watson was not on the practice field on Monday, and I’m getting weird vibes from the whole situation.
A report from the Browns website said, “[Browns head coach Kevin] Stefanski also clarified that while Watson was medically cleared to play against the Ravens in Week 4, there's a difference between that and being functionally able to do the job. That's their approach with any of their injured players is being able to functionally perform on the field in their specific role.”
It’s a dream spot to go against San Francisco after the Niners demolition of Dallas on Sunday night, but the market may not have caught up to the improvements Brock Purdy has made.
DVOA has the Niners as the seventh-best team through five weeks since 1981.
Verdict: Pass
Eagles vs. Jets
The Jets lost Alijah Vera-Tucker to injury for the season last week and now will have to face one of the league’s fiercest defensive lines.
New York's cornerback situation is also uncertain with injuries to both Brandin Echols and D.J. Reed on the opposite side of Sauce Gardner, who returned to Sunday’s game so I’m not too concerned about him. Neither Echols nor Reed played and Denver was able to comfortably move the ball throughout most of the game.
It’s going to be difficult for the Jets to generate much offense, given how improved Philadelphia’s run defense is under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai's scheme. The Eagles rank in the top 10 in rushing success rate allowed and the defense showed some impressive in-game adjustments against the Rams last week.
The Eagles are entering Andy Reid second-half under territory with a lead, especially as the offense still sorts out its red-zone issues. The Jets will force them to be methodical.
Verdict: Pass (Look for second half under if Eagles lead at the half)
Giants vs. Bills
The Giants' offensive line situation is reaching historic lows every week.
I know Buffalo is coming back from London and teams generally struggle defensively in that spot — opponents are 7-3 to the team total over against teams coming back from London that don’t take the bye — but the market may not have caught up yet to just how impossibly bad this offensive line is.
Now that Daniel Jones is also hurt, and most of the Giants' points came from Dolphins turnovers last week, there’s no reason. That offensive line is on pace to give up 326 pressures, which is 114 more than any other offensive line did in 2022. New York is signing people off the street to play immediately, and it’s a dire situation.
Buffalo did lose CB Tre'Davious White and LB Matt Milano to season-ending injuries over the past two weeks, which is a major hit to the defense. That will matter later, but not as much here.
Josh Allen is a notorious flat track bully in his NFL career thus far and doesn’t mind running up the score to make a statement, but you have to imagine Buffalo will prioritize health if leading by multiple scores late given the high number of recent injuries.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Falcons
I’ve mostly been lower than the market on the Commanders and Sam Howell this season, but this is a pretty ideal matchup for them. The Falcons won’t generate much pass rush to expose Howell’s sack issues too badly, even though they remain present. Atlanta's secondary is improved from last year but is still a mediocre coverage unit overall.
This is a good test for Desmond Ridder to replicate his showing from last week against a defense that seriously lacks talent and coverage abilities.
I have no strong opinion on either side of the line, though.
Verdict: Pass
Vikings vs. Bears
If you grabbed the early Chicago numbers above three before the Justin Jefferson news, or you bet the under before the total dropped due to Jefferson's injury and the wind in the forecast, then you made a great bet.
Now that the market has settled on Minnesota -2.5 and a total of 44.5, it’s about right for me given the conditions.
I would closely monitor the weather. If the wind looks milder as we get closer to the game, then this total dropped too far and anything below 45 is an over bet for me.
Chicago’s defense remains one of the worst three units in football and the lack of secondary talent in Minnesota should help amplify the Justin Fields and D.J. Moore connection.
These are two bottom-10 defenses overall and while the Vikings have lost a lot of close games, Kirk Cousins won’t be pressured and has led a mostly efficient pass offense.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs. Buccaneers
I’d imagine there’s going to be a lot of sharp money on Tampa Bay in this game, selling high on the Lions after three straight wins by double digits over the Falcons, Packers and Panthers. Detroit just smacked down two of the preseason NFC darlings pretty comfortably and then handed a bad Carolina team a blowout loss in a bad Lions spot while dealing with a medley of injuries.
The Lions had real problems moving the ball in Week 1, but offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is fully in his bag of tricks now, evidenced by the emergence of tight end Sam LaPorta and that magical double reverse trick play they scored with on Sunday.
There’s major regression looming for the Buccaneers offense and Baker Mayfield. They rank 31st in early down success rate and have done almost all of their successful work on third down. The offense is first in third down EPA per play and ranks inside the top seven in conversion rate over expected.
For that reason, I’ll be staying away from the Buccaneers on Sunday. Even though it’s a wonderful spot for Tampa Bay coming off the bye, I remain skeptical.
Verdict: Pass
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Cowboys vs. Chargers
I thought we’d get an underdog price on Dallas since the injury situation is mounting on defense and the return of Austin Ekeler for the Chargers. Los Angeles did get the bye week to get healthier and prep for this game, and now the Cowboys will get an extra day to rest and recover from the beatdown they took against San Francisco.
The Chargers defense should make it relatively easy for Dak Prescott to bounce back from his poor outing against the Niners, but I have major questions about the Cowboys defense given that the 49ers and Cardinals have now torched them this season for more than seven yards per play.
The number is not good enough to back Dallas here. Pass.
Verdict: Pass
The Leans
Ravens vs. Titans
The Ravens and Titans left a ton of points on the board in their respective games last week.
Lamar Jackson’s final stat line was historically misleading because of seven drops from Ravens receivers. The Titans had no answers for the Colts offense on the fast track on Indianapolis’ turf and struggled to contain the rushing game when Anthony Richardson was still in the game. Despite that, Tennessee moved the ball through the air consistently on the Colts and DeAndre Hopkins turned in a vintage performance.
The Titans have been an absolute disaster in the red zone offensively this season, which has been a real strength for them in the past. I’m expecting the offense to regress positively in the red area going forward. Tennessee was stopped on a fourth-and-1 run and settled for three field goals in the loss to Indianapolis last week.
Ryan Tannehill has had some good games and really bad ones, but the connection with Hopkins only seems to be growing.
The surface at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has generally been conducive to offense, but this total continues to drop below the key number of 41. At 40.5, I’d strongly consider playing the over.
Verdict: Lean Over 40.5
Panthers vs. Dolphins
When you compare the skill position talent on these two teams, it’s hard to fathom that they’re playing the same sport.
Carolina’s skill group and offensive line have massively underwhelmed and weren’t even particularly good on paper. Bryce Young doesn’t look ready for the NFL yet, and new head coach Frank Reich is subtly questioning owner David Tepper’s decision-making. Miami will be without De’Von Achane due to injury, but the Panthers are still badly overmatched here.
Miami can basically pick its score offensively here, and Mike McDaniel showed a willingness to put up a ton of points quickly against a bad defense against Denver. The Dolphins defense is a bit shaky to lay double digits, but I also think this spread should be north of two touchdowns.
Miami is likely to be in a run-heavy game script in the second half, but the offense also ranks by far the best in the NFL in rushing efficiency thus far. The Dolphins can run up the score without really airing it out.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins -13.5
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Cardinals vs. Rams
The Cardinals' true talent level may finally be showing through after the opening four weeks of the season that saw them compete closely with the Commanders, Giants, Cowboys and even 49ers for large stretches.
Arizona's pass rush wasn’t able to get anywhere near Joe Burrow last week and wasn't good at generating pressure against Dallas or San Francisco before that. As a result, the defensive talent deficiencies in the secondary are getting exposed. The market entered the season too low on Arizona and now it may be too high on it.
The Cardinals are a bottom-five unit in pass rush win rate and won’t be able to expose the Rams' weak offensive line. As a result, Matthew Stafford should torch this secondary similar to how Burrow did on Sunday.
Stafford struggled under pressure in the second half on Sunday against Philadelphia, but the Rams offense was able to consistently generate wide-open receivers in that game. It'll also be another week of Cooper Kupp getting back into this offense while Puka Nacua generates excellent separation.
The Rams should win this going away. Even that defense is filled with young talent that might be a touch underrated in the market as a result of their lack of track record.
It's just a lean for me at -7, but I'd play -6.5. The market continues to move toward Rams overs for the third consecutive week, as well.
Verdict: Lean Rams -7; Play Rams -6.5
NFL Week 6 Picks
Broncos vs. Chiefs
I typically like to avoid betting on Thursday Night Football and at a quick glance, this is a textbook game to avoid because of Denver’s historically bad defense through five weeks. The Broncos have allowed 0.32 EPA per dropback, which roughly means that opponents are averaging one point scored for every three dropbacks. That’s by far the worst mark in the league, and it gets even worse when you consider four of those five opposing quarterbacks were Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garappolo.
The total has crashed throughout the week from 51.5 at the open down to the current 47.5 number. The market adjusted downward on the total in part because of how slowly and methodically Kansas City plays when leading in the second half, which is the standard under Andy Reid and a major reason why the Chiefs are so poor as a huge favorite in the Mahomes era.
Despite the total crashing, the market hasn’t moved at all toward Denver since a +10.5 open.
Mahomes is just 14-20-1 (41%) against the spread (ATS) when a favorite of more than a touchdown. Unlike Miami, who ran up the score on the Broncos, Kansas City is the exact opposite offensively, preferring to sit on the lead and leave the backdoor wide open. Denver is quietly 12th in EPA per play offensively, 13th in passing success rate and should have success moving the ball enough to lessen the number of possessions for the Chiefs to separate.
The Chiefs are still playing in cruise control mode and don’t look to be at their best on either side of the ball. Kansas City squeaked by with one score wins against the Jets and Vikings in the last two weeks and appears to still be overvalued as Super Bowl champions. I find it notable that the market has steamed hard against them close to post in three of their five games.
The Broncos are going nowhere this season and their season will effectively be over if they fall to 1-5 on Thursday night, but the offense is moving the ball well enough to stay inside this number.
Road divisional underdogs of 10 or more points cover 56% of the time per our BetLabs system. I’m holding my nose and backing Denver at +10 or better.
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Colts vs. Jaguars
Our first divisional rematch of the season is upon us.
First off, it’s quite shocking to me that the Jaguars didn’t take their bye week after two full weeks in London. The Bills were quite flat traveling to London after their biggest win of the season the week prior, and it showed in the first-half sluggishness.
I expect the Jaguars to be flat after a dominant two-week trip to London that saved their season. The Jaguars took care of both Atlanta and Buffalo at their home away from home, but they're now at a rest and travel disadvantage against the Colts.
Indianapolis’ injury report is a key one to watch ahead of Sunday. Based on the pattern emerging with concussions in 2023, I’d expect both top pass rusher Kwity Paye and left tackle Bernhard Raimann to clear concussion protocol in time for this divisional matchup. The Colts won’t have Anthony Richardson, which hurts the running game, but it’s very difficult to run on the Jaguars anyway.
The Jacksonville secondary has improved since the early portion of the season, but Gardner Minshew has shown that there’s not much of a drop-off in the play-to-play consistency of the Colts offense. There’s less explosiveness and upside without Richardson — Zack Moss’ long touchdown run last week happened because of two defenders accounting for Richardson in the read option — but Minshew can keep the Colts right around league average offensively.
Minshew ranks 17th in EPA + CPOE composite thus far this year, which is higher than Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have more yards per play, fewer yards per play allowed and both offenses rank inside the top 10 in early down EPA per play.
I’d expect points in this game and since both offenses have had their red zone issues — that should keep this game down to the final possession. I’d bet Indianapolis at +4 or better.
Seahawks vs. Bengals
There are potential weather impacts in the forecast for this game with winds of 10-15 mph on Sunday in Cincinnati that should be monitored. The forecast kept this total from rising higher, but I think this is finally the time to buy low on the Bengals offense. Seattle’s secondary has a lot of holes overall, the Giants just didn’t have the offensive line to protect Daniel Jones long enough to exploit it.
For all of the talk of the Seattle injuries on the offensive line, the Seahawks are ninth in pass block win rate offensively. The offense is also second in the NFL in early down success rate, which has proven to be more predictive than the high variance late downs.
Despite some struggles on third down, Geno Smith is still moving the ball well overall. The Seahawks' quality offensive showing against the Lions looks better with each passing week, and Seattle has been the league’s worst offense on third down. I’m trusting the early down numbers to hold up and the late down numbers to regress closer to league average.
Another thing I like for this over: Both the Seahawks and Bengals offenses rank in the bottom six in second-and-long rush rate. They put the ball in the quarterback's hands and let them cook.
If you compare the NFL Next Gen Stats pass charts for Burrow in Week 5 against Tennessee and Week 6 against Arizona, you can see a noticeable difference in his ability to push the ball down the field.
Burrow was 1-for-3 on passes of 10+ yards down the field against the Titans. Last week, Burrow was 8-for-12 with three touchdowns and an interception. The willingness to even attempt those balls is a sign his health is improving.
Here's Week 5 against Arizona:
And here's Week 4 against Tennessee:
Saints vs. Texans
For the fourth consecutive week, I’m betting the Texans. For the third time in four weeks, I’m including the Texans as a "bet on" team in this column.
The Texans defense did indeed struggle to slow down the Falcons offense last week, as Desmond Ridder had maybe his best game of the season. But it’s another feather in the cap of C.J. Stroud that he led the go-ahead touchdown drive so comfortably on the road in his fifth NFL start.
Let’s do a quick tale of the tape through five weeks:
- EPA Offense: Houston 14th, New Orleans 23rd
- EPA Defense: Houston 14th, New Orleans second
- Opponent adjusted Series Success Rate offense: Houston 11th, New Orleans 27th
- Opponent adjusted Series Success Rate defense: Houston 22nd, New Orleans second
I’m much more inclined to believe in the stickiness of the offensive numbers from Stroud and this offense in a small sample than I am in the Saints defense that is now facing the best pass offense it has faced all season.
New Orleans is 32nd in pass rush win rate and rates as below average in Pro Football Focus' pass rush grades. Stroud should have time to throw and he’ll expose some holes in this Saints defense.
Catching points at home, I’ll take Houston any time. The Texans are also an excellent teaser option.
Patriots vs. Raiders
Through five weeks, the Patriots are now the worst offense in the NFL by EPA. The Raiders rank 24th.
New England’s inability to run the ball has been the most surprising facet of the offense thus far. Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his usage rate decline in favor of more Ezekiel Elliott carries too, but neither has been effective. The Patriots rank 29th in Rushing Success Rate and 32nd in EPA per rush. They’ve fallen behind early in four of their five games, which has forced them to force the ball downfield and be more aggressive.
New England’s offensive line is 30th in pass block win rate offensively and while the Raiders don’t have a great pass rush overall, Maxx Crosby individually has elite pressure rates thus far.
The Patriots defense may not have pass rusher Matthew Judon or CB Christian Gonzalez, but that didn’t stop them from a solid showing against the Saints mediocre offense last week. New Orleans totaled 34 points in the shutout win, but the Saints had just six yards per pass attempt and 3.2 yards per carry. New Orleans scored 13 points on short fields from New England turnovers.
The Raiders offense remains quite one-dimensional due to the inefficiency in the rushing attack, and the Patriots defense still has a high league-average floor because of Bill Belichick game planning and scheming. This total shouldn’t be higher than 40.
Hopefully, Jakobi Meyers doesn’t lateral the ball to a defender again this year.
