As we hit Week 6, bye weeks are here and the injuries are starting to pile up around the league. Some teams have been hit harder than others, and cluster injuries at the same position can really take its toll.
It's time to make our final call on games for the week, but some of these games still don't have enough injury information to feel very confident. We'll do our best, and it's an important reminder that bettors don't have to play every game. Sometimes a total is better than a side; sometimes it's better to sit it out altogether and avoid the uncertainty.
Before we get to decisions on our three Waits from earlier in the week, let's make two updates.
First, we're upgrading Jaguars +2.5 to a Bet.
I liked this spot for the Jags but got spooked by their 1-8 record in Indianapolis over the last nine seasons. But that's straight up.
Since October 2015, Jacksonville is a ridiculous 13-1-1 ATS (93%) against the Colts, covering by 11.0 PPG. To put that in perspective, the Jaguars are 35-63-2 ATS (36%) against every other team during that same stretch.
Against the Colts, the Jags are the best team in the league. Against everyone else they're, well, the Jaguars. The Colts are missing Shaq Leonard again along with pass rusher Kwity Paye, while Jonathan Taylor is questionable and looks limited at best. I just have to trust the better team, and I'll pay for the +250 division ticket too.
Second, we're downgrading Steelers +10 to a Pass.
Pittsburgh is missing its top three corners this week along with stud safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Tom Brady is 8-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite and he should light up this beguiled secondary.
It's now or never for that +1000 passing yards leader bet from Futures Friday. I'll still a rah rah Mike Tomlin underdog spot, where he's 13-2-1 ATS at home, but he's never been this big of a home dog. I just don't need to play it.
We already made decisions on every other game, so check the full explanations there. Let's recap our other Bet, Lean, and Pass decisions now that the lines have shifted and get to our final three decisions.
Bet
- Ravens -5.5 at Giants (and Ravens TT over 24.5)
- Seahawks +2.5 vs Cardinals (and Seahawks ML)
- Jaguars +2.5 at Colts
Lean
- Bills -2.5 at Chiefs (and Josh Allen over 44.5 rush yards)
- Jets +7.5 at Packers (and Jets TT over 18.5)
- Panthers +10 at Rams (and under 41.5 parlayed)
- Broncos +5 at Chargers
Pass
- Patriots +2.5 at Browns
- Bengals -2.5 at Saints
- Steelers +10 vs Bucs
Week 7 Lookahead Picks
- Chiefs (-1.5) at 49ers
- Seahawks (+7.5) at Chargers
Note: Odds are the best available for each pick as of writing. Shop for the best real-time lines with our NFL odds page.
We waited for injury clarity in this game, and we didn't really get it.
Tua Tagovailoa is out, and rookie Skylar Thompson was named the starter. Teddy Bridgewater is still questionable and looks like he might suit up as the backup. But if Teddy can play as a backup, shouldn't he just start? Something smells fishy with how this is playing out.
Star LT Terron Armstead is still questionable for Miami. It looks like CB Xavien Howard will play hurt, but he hasn't been good enough without Byron Jones, so that could be a problem with as much man defense as the Fins like to play with Justin Jefferson on the other side.
Truth be told, I'd love to fade both of these teams. Minnesota is not playing like a 4-1 team, especially on defense, and something just feels off with Miami. I'd lean toward the healthier team but I'll stay away.
The Pick: Vikings -3 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for QB and CB injury news
Everyone seems a bit too confident in the 49ers.
San Francisco dominated a lifeless Rams team that looks nothing like a Super Bowl champ right now, then summarily dismissed a Panthers squad that did the same thing with its head coach the next morning. The 49ers are 3-2 against opponents who are 7-14 in their other games.
The 49ers have the No. 1 DVOA defense on paper, but that's not the defense heading to Atlanta.
Tackles Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead are out, along with CB Emmanuel Moseley, S Jimmie Ward, and LB Aziz Al-Shaair. Star edge rusher Nick Bosa is questionable and sounds like he'll be limited if he does play.
That's over half of the defensive starters — and don't forget the 49ers are without Trey Lance, Elijah Mitchell and the left side of their offensive line. This team is down 10 of its 22 starters for Sunday.
NFL Week 5 Recap: 5 Betting Takeaways for the Rams, 49ers, Jaguars, More
The Falcons are no pushover.
They are undefeated against the spread, and such teams that are underdogs in their sixth game have gone 4-1 ATS, winning three times outright. This is a very trappy spot for the Niners on the road with so many injuries and the Chiefs looming next week.
The problem is one key injury on Atlanta: Kyle Pitts. He's questionable and his versatility is the key to opening up the offense. I worry San Francisco DC DeMeco Ryans could outsmart a Falcons attack short of weapons if Pitts isn't out there.
Still, this is a strong Falcons lean. If Pitts is cleared and/or this gets to Atlanta +6, we'll make it a bet. I'm also eyeing that +195 moneyline. I smell an upset.
The Pick: Falcons +5 (Lean) | Previously: Wait for injury news
We waited on injury news for both teams in this one, and it's been all one-way traffic.
Philadelphia took every one of its four banged up offensive linemen off the injury report, so the league's best O-line should be good to go against Micah Parsons and the best pass rush in the league.
That is assuming Parsons actually plays. He's been limited by a groin injury, and if the Defensive Player of the Year favorite is not himself, that would be a huge loss.
We also confirmed another week out for Dak Prescott, which means another start for Cooper Rush. He's 5-0 now, both SU and ATS, but he's never faced a defense like this. His favorite target (CeeDee Lamb) is also a question mark, and don't forget LT Tyron Smith is out.
That's arguably four of the Cowboys' five most talented players limited or out at the wrong time, on the road against the league's last unbeaten team. You have to like the Eagles here and maybe a reality check on the Rush hype.
That said, I'm not confident Philly can hang a huge number on Dallas. This is a big step up in defensive quality for the Eagles after facing the league's second-softest defensive schedule so far. Dallas has yet to surrender 20 points in a game, averaging just 14.4 PPG allowed.
All five Dallas games have finished at 39 points or below, and three Philly games are at 37 or below. Primetime unders are now 12-5 on the season.
I like under 42.5. Both defenses are playing well, and both offenses are playing through key injuries.
In a huge division battle that looks under a low total, you have to take the points if you're going to play a side. I like Philly to win, but Dallas covers.
The Pick: Cowboys +6.5 (Pass) but Lean Under 42.5 | Previously: Wait for QB and OL injury news
