Believe it or not, Week 6 already marks one-third of the way through the NFL season.
It's a bit of an odd weekend slate, with nine of 13 games featuring a road favorite. Will home dogs bark this weekend in a season full of underdog moments so far, or will the favorites finally bite back?
My NFL predictions in my column last week ended up mostly a wash, with our 6-8 record offset by a couple of escalator hits to finish just in the green at +0.3 units. We're now at +9.49 units on the season and, most importantly, 17% ROI through five weeks.
Be sure to follow me on the Action Network app to tail everything from this column, as well as my Hot Read, Lookahead, and last-minute additions. You can always see unit sizing there too.
Let's get right to the Week 6 bets and hope it's a favorites sort of weekend.
NFL Week 6 Picks
Browns vs. Eagles Pick: How To Fade Cleveland
This is a great spot to invest in a rested Eagles team coming out of an early bye week.
Philadelphia gets stud wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back, and maybe even more importantly, star tackle Lane Johnson is ready to go. The Eagles feel disappointing at 2-2, but that's probably a decent outcome considering the early star injuries to a top-heavy roster, especially as both the offense and defense adjust to entirely new schemes with new coordinators calling plays.
That makes this the perfect opportunity to get healthy and on the same page during the bye week, and the Browns are about as close as you get to a scrimmage coming off the break.
Cleveland stubbornly refuses to pivot from Deshaun Watson for no clear reason (ownership?!), despite its offense sitting at 3.8 yards per play, a full one-half yard short of the next worst NFL offense. Jim Schwartz's elite defense from a year ago has also been exposed and now faces a franchise that knows his predictable system and had extra time to prepare for it.
Books are onto this matchup, pricing the Eagles at -9 or -9.5, beyond even a teaser play. A first-half angle gets us under the key number at -5.5 (I was able to get -4.5 earlier in the week) and also avoids the possibility of Jameis Winston in the second half, in case Cleveland finally wakes up.
The Browns are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in the first half and were outscored 75-16 in their four failed covers. Of course, the Eagles are one of the only teams worse than that at 0-4 ATS in the first half, yet to score a single point in the first quarter. That's the exact sort of thing you'd address in the bye week and come out with scripted plays early against a defense you know well.
I like the Eagles to get ahead early and win comfortably here, and there are plenty of good first-half trends backing home favorites coming off the bye week.
Texans vs. Patriots Parlay: The SGP Backing New England
This one is gross, but sometimes bettors have to take the dive and play bad lines.
New England will debut rookie quarterback Drake Maye, and that certainly feels like an odd choice given the state of this poor Patriots offensive line and a terrific Texans defense featuring Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson rushing the passer.
Jacoby Brissett has been a statue in the pocket, though, and the Patriots offense is scoring 12.4 points per game with him under center. Maye represents variability and upside and is specifically good at moving in the pocket and throwing off-platform and under pressure, something he'll likely be doing plenty of in this game.
Still, this is mostly a fade of an overrated Texans squad.
Houston ranks first in our proprietary Luck Rankings, so this is a luck play. The Texans still can't run the ball and have a shaky offensive line of their own, and now the passing attack will take a step back without stud WR Nico Collins. Collins has been as good as any receiver in the league and a huge weapon on third down, and Tank Dell hasn't been as good coming off injury.
Houston's offense rates poorly on success rate and has been pretty weak overall on early downs, relying on C.J. Stroud's heroics on late downs to get the job done. That's the sort of luck that runs out at some point, and that point might well be against a tough, disciplined Patriots defense.
Stroud is just 1-6 ATS against sub-.500 teams in his career, so he and DeMeco Ryans have struggled to take care of the easy ones. The Texans average just 20.4 points per game this season, the same as the Patriots allow. These teams are a combined 7-3 to the under, with Houston 4-1 itself.
If the Patriots do cover the +7, it will very likely be because this game was ugly and low-scoring, not because Maye outdueled Stroud in a shootout. So if we like the Pats, we should juice our bet by parlaying it with the under 38, together at +240 (FanDuel).
If you think the Pats can win outright like so many other long underdogs already have this season, a moneyline-under SGP pays out at +550 (ESPN BET).
Falcons vs. Panthers: How To Fade Carolina
These division rivals have split the matchup in four straight seasons, with seven of those eight matchups within 10 points. That means Atlanta -6 feels too high even for the side that's the better team, especially since I don't trust the Falcons defense. So, let's that side completely.
Atlanta's offense is getting going after a tough start. The Falcons scored 62 points on pretty good Saints and Bucs defenses and are now coming off extra rest after a Thursday night game. Kirk Cousins has settled in and found a rhythm, and he should do just fine against a beatable Panthers defense.
Carolina ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA, and that might flatter the Panthers. Carolina lost its two best defenders for the season in Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson, and even as the team got an early season boost after the switch from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton, the defense never really improved. The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL at 33 points per game allowed.
Remember the Carolina kitchen sink game when the franchise was on the line and a change to Dalton put the Panthers up 21-7 at the half in an easy win over the woebegone Raiders?
That's all well and good, but check out the halftime scores of the other four Panthers games: 30-3, 20-0, 21-14, and 27-7, an average halftime score of 24.5 for the opponent and just six for Carolina. The Panthers have allowed 13 first-half TDs in those four games to the Saints, Chargers, Bengals, and Bears, not exactly a murderer's row of offenses, with at least three TDs allowed in each.
Maybe the Panthers offense is improved enough to hang in there, but the Falcons should score aplenty as Kirk Cousins stands back there and picks apart this stationary defense. Atlanta has at least two touchdowns in the first half of the last three games.
Some books allow you to play over 1.5 first-half TDs for Atlanta, or you can just play this first-half team total over 13.5. If that's not available, you can pivot to just Falcons -3.5 1H as a final option.
Lions vs. Cowboys: The Side To Bet ATS
This was our Lookahead pick in last week's article at -2.5 and I still like the Lions at -3 — though I'd pass at -3.5 past the key number, so don't wait too long to get your bet in if you haven't already.
The Cowboys needed a late comeback effort in Pittsburgh last Sunday night just to avoid dropping below .500, and this team is bruised and battered. It looks like Micah Parsons will miss again, along with DeMarcus Lawrence, and the corners are banged up too.
Detroit isn't banged up at all. The Lions are rested coming off an early bye week, and road favorites off a bye week are 60% ATS over the last two decades. Detroit also gets stud C Frank Ragnow back, a key return that reunites the best offensive line in the league against a defensive front missing its top guys.
Do you remember the last time the Lions played the Cowboys? Dan Campbell does.
Detroit trailed 20-13 before scoring a potential tying touchdown in the final minute of Week 17 last season, then decided to go for two and the win. And ingenious play call looked like it would give the Lions the win, but backup lineman Dan Skipper was erroneously flagged for failing to report and the Lions lost 20-19, falling out of the race for the No. 1 seed. That meant they didn't host the NFC Championship Game.
(Can we get odds on a Dan Skipper Anytime Touchdown this week?!)
The Lions have been built to dominate in the trenches, and that's exactly where they should win this game. Dallas is missing its best guys on a defensive front that's been bad anyway and outright terrible against the run, a putrid 31st in run defense DVOA. The Lions could and should run all over the Cowboys, controlling the clock and moving the chains in a huge mismatch.
Dan Campbell is 17-9 ATS as a favorite and 3-1 ATS after the bye week, and Jared Goff is 5-2 ATS off the bye himself. Campbell (16-6 ATS) and Goff (59% ATS) have also been terrific in their careers against teams above .500.
Hey, you know who hasn't been great against opponents above .500? Dak Prescott, at just 19-27 ATS (41%). The Cowboys are good front runners but could get bullied by a real opponent in this revenge spot.
David Montgomery Player Props: Bet This SGP
This angle obviously aligns pretty closely with the cap I just gave on Lions-Cowboys, but I think you can play this SGP whether you like Lions -3 or not.
I like both parts of this SGP independently if you prefer to play them separately, so let's break them down individually.
The Cowboys run defense is terrible and has been dating back to the end of last season. Dallas allowed 20 carries for 115 yards and four TDs to Alvin Kamara, plus 25/151/2 to Derrick Henry already this season. In December, the Cowboys allowed 25/179 and two scores to James Cook.
David Montgomery had a more modest 14/65/1 line in his Week 17 matchup, and that's why we're not going too aggressive on this angle. Montgomery only has one game with more than one TD with the Lions and doesn't have many huge yardage totals either, with little ability to break a long one.
Montgomery does, though, have a touchdown in all four Lions games this season. He also had 13 TDs in 14 games last season, so he's now scored at least one time in 15 of 18 regular season games with the Lions. That would imply -500 odds at an Anytime TD, leaving pretty obvious value at -127, especially in what's expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend.
As for the yardage, Montgomery has run for at least 55 yards in 14 of 18 games with the Lions (78%) — he just hasn't done so in two of the last three, giving us a discount on this number. Montgomery's median output with the Lions is at 69 yards, and he's been at 65+ in two-thirds of his Detroit games and 74+ in almost half. That's about the range I expected this rushing yards line to be.
Counting the playoffs, Montgomery has run for 55 yards and a score in 14 of 21 games with the Lions — two out of every three! — and we're getting +180 on an SGP to do that. He's even had 55 and a TD in four of seven Detroit losses he's played in, making this pretty matchup-proof.
Montgomery has put up 70 yards and a touchdown in eight of 18 regular-season games with the Lions, so put some of your bet on 70+ rushing yards and a TD at +325 (Caesars, as of Friday), an implied 24% for something he's done 44% of the time.
Sunday Night Football Pick: The Side for Bengals vs. Giants
This was one of my Hot Read picks on Sunday night when this line dropped to -3.5 after sitting at -4.5 on Sunday morning. That was an overreaction to a nice Giants win that's left New York a bit inflated in the market, and that line is now at -4 and rising at some books so be sure to play this at -3.5 while you can.
Everyone's focusing on Cincinnati's 1-4 record and its porous defense, and fairly so. At some point, you have to stop the opponent and win games. All four losses were by one score in coin-flip games that the Bengals could've won despite poor defensive efforts. That's because this offense has been about as good as any in the league.
Through five weeks, Cincinnati ranks 2nd in Offensive DVOA, 2nd in Success Rate, and 2nd in EPA per drive. The Bengals are doing that despite offensive line injuries and no Tee Higgins the first two games, though Higgins is back and he and Ja'Marr Chase are dominating opponents with explosives and yards after catch. Also, Joe Burrow is playing the best of his career, ranking second among QBs in EPA + CPOE.
The Giants' defensive line is talented, but Burrow typically gets the ball quickly and New York has one of the league's worst secondaries and ranks 21st in passing DVOA defensively.
Cincinnati is going to put up points on this defense because the Bengals score on everyone. You beat this team by outscoring them, like Baltimore scoring 41 or Washington dropping 38 in a shootout. But the Giants offense is not built to win a shootout, especially with standout rookie WR Malik Nabers out.
When Daniel Jones faces an opponent that scores over 20 points, he's just 12-19 ATS (39%) and an ugly 6-35 SU in his career, per Matt Moore. Joe Burrow is 15-7-1 ATS after a loss and 16-5 ATS in non-division games after Week 5 (76%).
I don't think the Bengals are dead at 1-4, not with the Giants, Browns, and Raiders on the next month's schedule. I wrote about Cincinnati in my pulse check futures article. I'm not sure Burrow can get enough wins to truly threaten MVP, but he does lead the league in passing TDs and is near the top three in yards. I sprinkled Burrow at +900 to win Comeback Player of the Year (DraftKings) and at +15000 to win Offensive Player of the Year (BetRivers).
What is dead may never die. We see this early swoon then bounce back from the Bengals every season. They'll simply score too many points here for the Giants to keep up.
NFL Week 7 Lookahead Pick
I'm just going to keep on fading a Giants side that feels inflated by the books.
I think the market is too low on an overlooked and forgotten Eagles side too, and both things could change this weekend if the Giants get a big number hung on them Sunday night by the Bengals while the Eagles roll up on the Browns. If both things happen, this Lookahead line will push easily past -4 and maybe even get to -6 or beyond.
The Eagles are getting healthy now with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson back healthy, and Johnson's return is especially key here. The only real strength of the Giants is Dexter Lawrence and a terrific defensive front, but Philadelphia's excellent offensive line should be able to keep those guys at bay, leaving Brown and Smith to dominate against an outmanned secondary.
And don't forget about the other Eagles star, the one who's had this matchup circled since the schedule came out. This is a revenge spot for Saquon Barkley. Get ready to bet Saquon escalators, folks.
This is a rivalry game, but this rivalry has been anything but competitive. The Giants won a meaningless game in Week 18 last season but the Eagles had won by at least six in each of the previous five meetings, scoring 35 points per game with wins by 24, 26, and 31.
These teams may both have two wins, but they're playing different sports. Buy low on the Lookahead line Eagles -3.5 (FanDuel) before it rises this weekend.
