After NFL teams treated the first few weeks as an extended preseason, we’re finally starting to see scoring pick up across the league (for some teams). We’ve had our first head coach get fired, and the upsets are coming fast and furious. Underdogs of 5+ points are 19-6-1 (76%) ATS this season.
The results in this column (11-17, 39%) haven't been ideal, but hopefully the analysis gets you excited for every week. This is the week things get turned around!
Let’s get into my NFL predictions for the Week 6 slate.
NFL Week 6 Picks: Pass or Play
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 6 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
49ers vs. Seahawks
This is arguably the most crucial game of the season for the Seahawks, and the schedule-makers didn’t do them any favors. This will be Seattle’s third game in 11 days after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 4, and they looked visibly tired in Sunday’s loss to the Giants. To make matters worse, the defense is dealing with several injuries.
Uchenna Nwosu will miss this game, while Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe and Tariq Woolen are all questionable. I had high hopes for this unit under Mike Macdonald’s leadership, but the cluster injuries in the front seven have been especially problematic, and the Seahawks are just 24th in adjusted line yards on defense. I’m expecting a big game from Jordan Mason after rookie Tyrone Tracy torched this defense for 129 yards on Sunday.
The 49ers have their own issues, especially in the red zone, where they rank 30th this season. San Francisco’s offense is down to 12th in early down success rate, which doesn’t sound that bad until you realize they led the league by a wide margin in that metric last year. Perhaps a meeting with this banged-up Seattle defense is just what the doctor ordered.
I’ll be rooting for the Seahawks on Thursday with all of my futures on them, but I don’t see much value in this game from a side or total perspective.
Verdict: Pass
Passes
Browns vs. Eagles
The Eagles should be much healthier off their bye week, with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson all expected to be back in the fold. Meanwhile, the Browns are spiraling out of control at 1-4. In what should have been a perfect get-right spot for this offense last week against Washington, Deshaun Watson fell flat again.
This should be an excellent opportunity for Vic Fangio’s defense to flex some muscle over the worst offense in the NFL. At the same time, I’m excited to see what Kellen Moore’s offense looks like after the bye week with a full complement of personnel. However, the spread for this game has exploded to Eagles -8.5, and I can’t advise you to lay that many points here.
I’d be inclined to tease Philadelphia down to -2.5, passing through the key numbers of three and seven. Otherwise, this game is a pass for me.
Verdict: Pass
Colts vs. Titans
As of Tuesday, it’s unclear who will play quarterback for either team this week. Joe Flacco started for an injured Anthony Richardson and lit up a hapless Jaguars defense. For the Titans, Will Levis’ shoulder should be healthy after the bye week, but first-year head coach Brian Callahan may use it as an excuse to bench the turnover-prone second-year passer.
What we know for sure is that the Titans have the far superior defense. The Colts allowed Trevor Lawrence to look like Superman after a tragic start to the season (more on that later), while the Titans rank fifth in defensive EPA and should get Jeffery Simmons back after their bye week.
If you’re giving me the better defense off a bye week as a home underdog, I can’t help but be intrigued, but I need to know which quarterbacks are starting before I have a strong opinion on this game.
Verdict: Pass
Cardinals vs. Packers
The Cardinals pulled off an impressive road upset over the 49ers on Sunday, and the return of tight end Trey McBride undoubtedly aided their offense. The Packers, meanwhile, were unconvincing in struggling to pull away from an injured Rams team. According to predictive analyst Nick Giffen, Los Angeles suffered the most unlucky result of the week, as the Rams had a 10% better offensive success rate.
This line is in a dead zone, and I don’t feel the need to bet early in the week. However, I would recommend monitoring the weather report, as we could see some wind in Green Bay on Sunday. This total may be lined too high if we get any weather in this game, especially between two teams that want to run the ball.
Verdict: Pass
Buccaneers vs. Saints
The Saints will be without Derek Carr for at least a couple of weeks after he suffered an oblique injury, and they will likely turn to rookie Spencer Rattler under center. He’ll be asked to play behind a banged-up offensive line against a Todd Bowles defense that will blitz him relentlessly and force him to make quick decisions in a crowded pocket.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield ranks fifth in the NFL in adjusted EPA/play and has thrived in new offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s system. The Saints are on a short week and have a handful of injuries on defense that could compromise them here. The Bucs have a sizable rest edge and some schematic advantages, but I’m not rushing to lay over a field goal with them in a divisional game.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
Commanders vs. Ravens
Last week, I faded the Commanders by backing the Browns at +3.5. Given the tougher matchup, Jayden Daniels wasn’t quite as prolific, completing just 56% of his passes with two turnover-worthy plays, but he completed 4-of-9 passes 10+ yards downfield for 142 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Washington’s offense had an early down success rate of just 28% in the game, which would be the worst in the NFL this season.
Now, Daniels leads the upstart Commanders into Baltimore, and this is by far their toughest test. Washington's four wins have come against opponents with a combined 6-14 record, only one of which ranks outside the bottom 12 in total DVOA. The Ravens rank third in total DVOA and should present tons of issues for Washington’s defense.
Thanks to Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has the most efficient early-down rushing offense in the league. Washington ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the run on early downs. I expect the Ravens to run the ball at will and keep Daniels off the field, and when Jackson does throw the ball, he’ll be doing so against a bottom-five pass defense.
The Ravens got torched by Joe Burrow through the air last week, and their pass defense has lagged far behind their run defense this season. Baltimore ranks first against the run and 20th against the pass according to success rate. If Washington’s run game is neutralized, can Daniels go on the road and succeed against this defense with only one true difference-maker at wide receiver?
In this game, Washington is punching up in weight class, and I believe Baltimore can expose its weaknesses here. However, Jackson is just 7-18 ATS (28%) as a favorite over a field goal in his career, and the Ravens have a terrible tendency to let teams hang around at times. The backdoor could stay open here.
If anything, I’d look to Baltimore in the first half. Lamar Jackson is 53-33-2 ATS (61.6%) in the first half of his career, making him the best quarterback in the first half ATS in the last 20 years out of 257 quarterbacks.
Verdict: Lean Ravens 1H -3.5
Texans vs. Patriots
The Texans' crucial home win over the Bills on Sunday could influence future tiebreakers in the AFC, but I’m still far from sold on the Houston offense. It ranks 31st in EPA/play and success rate on early downs, which only ranks ahead of the derelict Cleveland offense. To make matters worse, superstar wideout Nico Collins is “week-to-week” with a hamstring injury that could keep him off the field on Sunday.
C.J. Stroud’s numbers have also dived the road throughout his short career. He has dropped from 8.7 yards per attempt and a 5.4% touchdown rate at home to 7.3 and a 3.2% on the road. With potential wind in the forecast on Sunday, it’s difficult to project a high-octane offensive output from Houston.
New England is starting Drake Maye this week, and I’m frankly appalled by the foolishness of throwing him to the wolves here against DeMeco Ryans. The Patriots rank dead last in pass-block win rate and are facing the Texans’ league-leading pressure unit. The Patriots also have the third-worst pass-catching unit in the NFL by PFF’s rankings.
The biggest concern for the under here would be Maye turning the ball over and giving the Texans short fields. However, if Houston can build a lead and rely on the run, their offense won’t be efficient, as evidenced by their early down struggles. Overall, I see this as a sluggish game for both offenses on Sunday and lean toward the under.
Verdict: Lean Under 37.5 Points
Steelers vs. Raiders
The Raiders are starting to fall apart, and as the weeks go by, it becomes even more confounding that this team beat the Ravens earlier in the season. Las Vegas is having Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell compete for the starting quarterback job in practice this week.
There isn’t a correct answer on the Raiders' roster. Neither passer would elevate a dreadful run game and limited receiving corps without Davante Adams.
Meanwhile, the Steelers forced three turnovers last week and couldn’t muster more than 17 points. Justin Fields completed just 55.6% of his passes with 4.9 yards per attempt, while George Pickens appears to be in the doghouse after showing a lack of effort on Sunday and seeing his snap share cut to a season-low 59%. Pittsburgh can’t afford for Pickens not to give it his all since he’s the only true difference-maker on the roster offensively.
It’s difficult for the market to price totals low enough once we get into this range. Since November 2019, games listed at 37 or lower on the total have gone 38-14-1 (73%) to the under, including 4-2 this season. In Mike Tomlin’s career, he’s gone 85-62-1 (58%) to the under on the road and 52-26-1 (66%) since 2015.
I’m holding off, for now, to see if this total creeps back up to 37, which is a key number in this range, but this looks like an under between two anemic offenses.
Verdict: Lean Under 36.5 Points
Bengals vs. Giants
The Bengals may be 1-4 but don’t blame the offense. Joe Burrow has 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions and ranks second among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE. Last week, Burrow torched the Ravens with 392 passing yards and five touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough, as Cincinnati suffered its fourth loss by one possession. The Bengals’ four losses have come by an average of 3.8 points.
The Giants’ defense performed well last week against a gassed Seahawks team, but I’m still not sold as they rank just 21st against the pass by DVOA. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins fully healthy, the Bengals can put pressure on this cornerback room heavily reliant on young players. New York’s pass rush has impressed, but this is the best offensive line Burrow has had in years and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is playing excellent football lately.
To his credit, Daniel Jones has played better football than most expected this season, but he still ranks just 18th in EPA+CPOE. However, Malik Nabers' anticipated return should help immensely after he missed last week with a concussion. One aspect of this game will be whether Lou Anarumo employs a blitz-heavy approach like he did last week.
With the Bengals struggling immensely to find a pass rush this year, Anarumo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 51.1% of his dropbacks last week. Jones has fared decently well against the blitz this year, but last year, he ranked 41st out of 42 qualified passers against the blitz in PFF’s grades with an 8.3% turnover-worthy play rate, the second-highest in that sample. If one of these quarterbacks makes a backbreaking mistake, I’m betting it will be Jones.
Daniel Jones is 1-14 SU in his career in primetime games, and that 6.6% win rate is the lowest percentage of all quarterbacks with at least five starts since 2003, according to Evan Abrams. The Bengals are 30th in Nick Giffen’s luck rankings, and they’re a team I’m looking to buy low on moving forward. I’m waiting to see if I can get a -3 on Cincinnati, but I lean their direction in this must-win game.
Verdict: Lean Bengals -3.5
NFL Week 6 Picks
Jaguars vs. Bears
The Jaguars finally won on Sunday over a Colts team they’ve dominated in recent years, but I’m not rushing to buy stock in Jacksonville. The Colts only pressured Trevor Lawrence once in the game, and they finished with the lowest pressure rate in a game since pressures began being tracked in 2013. Lawrence won’t be as comfortable on Sunday against the Bears, who rank second in pass-rush win rate this season.
Chicago’s defense has been excellent overall, leading the NFL in EPA against the pass. Lawrence ranked 34th out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite through the first four weeks before finishing second last week. Given the much more difficult matchup, I expect his performance to mirror that first month this week.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is improving every week, and he finally got the deep ball going on Sunday. Through the first four weeks, he completed just 3-of-22 passes of 20+ yards with three interceptions. On Sunday, he completed 3-of-4 deep passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. I’m still not sold on Shane Waldron over the long haul, but getting Keenan Allen back in the lineup was beneficial and this offense is on the rise.
Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense EPA, and they’ve had no push up front. They rank 30th in pass rush win rate, and over the last two weeks, they have just a 6% blitz rate. If the Jaguars attempt to blitz more often this week, Williams should succeed — he’s completed 17-of-19 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns with no turnover-worthy plays against the blitz over the last two weeks.
The Bears have far superior defense in this game, and we might only be a few weeks away from Williams being a consensus better quarterback than Lawrence. I’m backing the Bears on the Moneyline here.
Verdict: Bet Bears ML
Chargers vs. Broncos
It’s a battle of the Ducks in Denver this week, as former Oregon quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Bo Nix square off in a divisional matchup for the first time. We also get Jim Harbaugh against Sean Payton in a fun throwback coaching matchup. Harbaugh’s 49ers went 3-1 against Payton’s Saints from 2011-14.
While those ancillary factors are exciting, the on-field product might not provide fireworks. The Chargers want to grind games down to a halt this season, as they rank dead last in seconds per play and third in rush play rate in the first halves of games. Meanwhile, the Broncos rank 31st in offensive success rate on early downs in the first half, and the Chargers are first defensively.
Denver’s defense has been outstanding lately, as Vance Joseph has been in his bag with his blitz-happy, man coverage defense that relies on more Cover 0 and Cover 1 than any scheme in the league. It’s challenging to find Chargers’ receivers who can separate consistently against the likes of Patrick Surtain II and breakout corner Riley Moss.
The under is 17-11 in Broncos home games over the last four years and 48-30-1 (62%) since 2015. The full-game under makes sense here, but I’m isolating it to the first half. Chargers’ games have gone 3-1 to the first half under on this line of 17.5 points, with the lone hit coming against the hapless Panthers. I expect a cagey opening two quarters between these two teams, and this has all of the makings of a game that’s 6-3 heading to the break.
Verdict: Bet 1H Under 17.5 Points
Lions vs. Cowboys
This game features one of the most significant mismatches in the trenches that you’ll find at the NFL level. Let’s start on the Lions’ side of the ball, where Detroit ranks first in adjusted offensive line yards, and Dallas ranks 31st on defense. The Lions are third in early down rushing success rate, while the Cowboys are 29th defensively.
Detroit can chew up yards on first and second down with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, setting up manageable third-down situations for Jared Goff against a pass rush that has lost some of its juice with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence sidelined.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ run game has been stuck in the mud for most of the season. They rank 31st in early down rushing success rate. Give Rico Dowdle credit for stepping up last week, but he’ll be running into a brick wall on Sunday against a Detroit defensive line that ranks second in adjusted line yards.
Dallas lacks difference-makers on offense outside of CeeDee Lamb, and defenses are doing everything they can to take him out of the game without much fear of being beaten by other receivers. Defenses have removed him from the game in the second half – he has just four catches for 25 yards all season after halftime.
Aidan Hutchinson will also play a huge role in this game against a Dallas pass-blocking unit ranked 26th by PFF. Hutchinson, the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, has 40 pressures in just four games—the next-closest player has 29 pressures in five games.
The Lions nearly pulled off the upset road win over the Cowboys last season, and the matchup significantly favors them this time around. I’ll back Detroit as a road favorite after its bye week.
Verdict: Bet Lions -3
Falcons vs. Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons have been undeniably entertaining this season, but they’ve been on the right side of some unfathomable late-game variance as of late. Their three wins this season have come by a combined nine points, and they perhaps could have and should have lost all of them:
- Week 2: Game-winning 2-minute drive came after the Eagles had a 97.6% win probability with less than two minutes remaining.
- Week 3: Game-winning 58-yard field goal came after the Saints had an 84.5% win probability with 41 seconds left.
- Week 5: Overtime win came after the Buccaneers had a 93% win probability with 22 seconds left.
That sets up an excellent sell-high opportunity against a Panthers team that should have more offensive success this week. Andy Dalton struggled to move the ball outdoors in the wind against the Bears’ second-ranked pass defense by DVOA. He should find much more success against the Falcons, who rank 22nd.
Chuba Hubbard should also have success on the ground as one of the most underrated running backs in the league this season. Carolina ranks second in adjusted O-line yards and fifth in early down rushing success rate, and the Falcons are 31st on defense against the run on early downs.
Unfortunately, the Panthers will be missing two starters on the offensive line, Taylor Moton and Austin Corbett, who have suffered injuries. Still, the Falcons had a worse offensive success rate than their opponent in their last two wins, and I’ll back the ugly divisional dog catching nearly a touchdown here.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +6.5
Bills vs. Jets
Josh Allen against Aaron Rodgers in primetime. This is what it’s all about. Except for the fact that these two offenses rank 30th and 31st in success rate over the last two weeks. The Bills have struggled on early downs, leaving Allen to fend for himself on third down, where he ranks 31st in EPA/play over the last two weeks. He completed a dreadful 9-of-30 passes on Sunday against the Texans.
New York’s defense doesn’t have the same pass rush as last year, but it still ranks first in the NFL in PFF’s coverage grades. The Jets force you to beat them underneath with slow, methodical drives, and I’m not confident in the Bills getting that done with their lack of high-quality pass-catchers, especially of Khalil Shakir misses another game.
Meanwhile, Nathaniel Hackett’s play-calling has grown from bad to worse this season, and Rodgers ranks just 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt. But hey, Garrett Wilson finally broke out last week! He finally had his first 100-yard game of the season! All it took was a whopping 22 targets. I know who I'm siding with every time in a matchup between Hackett and the Bills’ Sean McDermott.
These teams have played ten times since the beginning of 2019, and eight of those games have gone under 41 points with an average of 35.8 points per game. I’m betting on recent history repeating itself in this primetime divisional game between two underperforming offenses and two well-coached, talented defenses that don’t allow big plays.
Verdict: Bet Under 41 Points, Lean Jets +8.5 in a Teaser
