I've gone 11-for-13 on my three NFL player prop pieces this season, including 4-for-5 in Week 2, 4-for-4 in Week 4, and 3-for-4 in Week 5.
Let's keep it rolling in Week 6 with more player props. Find out how I would play Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Mingo and more. Also, bookmark this page because I'll add more NFL props throughout Saturday.
Dr. Nick's NFL Player Prop Bets
- QB Caleb Williams Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-105 at DraftKings)
- QB Lamar Jackson Under 29.5 Passing Attempts (-120 at FanDuel)
- TE Cade Otton Under 3.5 Receptions (+100 at BetMGM)
- QB Aidan O'Connell Under 2.5 Rushing Yards (+105 at Bet365)
- WR Jonathan Mingo Over 2.5 receptions (-115 at ESPN)
Chicago currently sits as a one-point favorite in its contest with Jacksonville in London, but I think there are reasons to believe Chicago may play from behind here, forcing Caleb Williams into a more pass-heavy script.
Jacksonville is the unlucky team in this matchup both by Luck% (23.8% Luck Gap) as well as Scoring Luck, where Jacksonville is the unlucky team with the second largest Scoring Luck Gap of the week.
The Jaguars are also used to the timing of being in London, having their schedule refined down to a tee with this being a yearly haul, which could give them an advantage on the body clocks and preparation.
Turning to the matchup, Jacksonville is 32nd in defensive pass DVOA but plays Cover 1 at a 37% clip, which is a coverage Caleb Williams has struggled with so far. On 39 dropbacks vs. Cover 1, Williams had a 1.34 ANY/A. For context, Bryce Young has a 1.79 ANY/A this year.
In other words, it could be harder for the Bears to move the ball through the air than it seems. Add in the Jaguars' 11th-ranked rush defense by DVOA and it's certainly possible the Bears struggle to score.
And if Jacksonville does lead, Williams is a good bet to clear his pass attempts because of how these teams play with a Jacksonville leading/Bears trailing game script.
Jacksonville overall plays at a fast neutral pace but also a faster-than-average pace when leading in the second half while not compensating enough for a lead and running more. By throwing more than expected in this situation, Jacksonville will stop the clock more.
By contrast, Chicago over-compensates its pass-run ratio based on the point margin, throwing 28% more when trailing late than leading late compared to a 25% league average. Chicago also plays at a faster pace than the league average when trailing in the second half, meaning combined, the two teams average around 2.4 seconds per play faster than average in a Jacksonville-leading situation.
I have Caleb Williams projected for a median of 34.5 pass attempts, but this jumps closer to 36 in a second-half trailing situation, which I think is more likely than the betting line suggests.
Lamar Jackson's passing-attempt splits have been very pronounced — he's gone over 29.5 passing attempts in the three close games while staying under in the two blowouts. That's in large part due to the Ravens' extreme pass-rush splits when leading compared to trailing in the second half.
The Ravens are tied with the Saints and Titans for the second-highest pass-rush ratio differential with a second-half lead vs. a deficit, rushing 40% more while leading than when trailing. The Ravens are at home and about a touchdown favorite, which should play into a more run-oriented attack, especially in the second half.
The Commanders don't adjust their pass-rush ratio very much, passing just 16% more when trailing than when leading in the second half, which is the fourth-lowest difference in the NFL.
Washington also plays at the fourth-slowest neutral game script pace, so there should be plenty of clock running when the Commanders have the ball regardless of game flow.
I think Baltimore is more likely to cover the seven-point spread, given it is the unlucky team in our Luck Rankings both by record luck and scoring luck. That will presumably lead to a run-heavy game script for the Ravens.
These teams combine for 64.5 minutes of possession on the year, which means one or both should have less possession than normal, which will also contribute to fewer plays on average for the Ravens.
Add it all up, and I have Jackson staying under 29.5 passing attempts close to 60% of the time.
There should be a lot of running in this game on both sides as the Saints look toward the ground game with starting QB Derek Carr out and rookie backup Spencer Rattler getting the start behind a depleted offensive line.
That should give the Buccaneers luxury to establish the run, knowing the Saints are weaker against the run than the pass, especially with Saints linebacker Pete Warner out with a hamstring injury.
New Orleans plays the seventh-most man coverage, which Otton has struggled to beat, generating just 0.37 yards per route run. The Saints also force teams to throw deeper, yielding the second-most passes per game, 15 yards or more, which is also the second-highest ratio of deep-to-short passes allowed in the league. That doesn't match Otton's 3.5 aDOT very well.
I'm projecting Otton to stay under around 58% of the time, so it's nice getting even money here.
Aidan O'Connell has 17 career runs in 10 career starts, and he's stayed under 2.5 yards in 60% of those starts. Here's a breakdown of O'Connells 17 career NFL carries:
- 0 scrambles
- 6 kneel downs
- 9 runs with one yard to go
- 1 designed sneak up the middle from his own 2-yard line to get away from the goal line
- 1 fumbled snap he recovered, which counted as a run
O'Connell has never gained more than three yards on a run and has only three carries of exactly three yards. Removing his six kneel-downs, the second-year QB has averages just 1.1 rushing attempts per game. He'll likely need two designed sneaks to have a shot at clearing 2.5 yards, and even then, there's a chance for a kneeldown if the Raiders are leading late.
As my most conservative projection, I have O'Connell staying under 2.5 rushing yards 62% of the time and potentially closer to 70% of the time, depending on how his long-term averages would eventually play out.
Andy Dalton should have a much easier time passing this week against Atlanta than last week against the Bears given the Falcons generate the second-lowest pressure rate in the league. That will help Dalton's accuracy as he has very strong pressure vs. no-pressure passing splits. When Dalton isn't facing pressure, he throws the ball nearly five yards shorter on average and completes passes at more than a 20% higher rate.
That should be to Jonathan Mingo's benefit as he's the wideout with the shortest aDOT on the team. It also helps that Atlanta has allowed the second-highest ratio of short passes to long passes, landing in Mingo's wheelhouse as well.
In addition to the target depth, the scheme also plays to the second-year receiver's advantage. Mingo has struggled against man coverage, catching just 11 passes on 28 targets (39.3% catch rate) on 198 routes run (14.1% target rate). However, against zone coverage — of which the Falcons play the third most — Mingo numbers improve to 37 catches on 67 targets (55.2% catch rate) on 396 routes run (16.9% target rate).
With Andy Dalton throwing him the ball instead of Bryce Young, I'd expect Mingo's catch rate closer to 60% against zone coverage and 50% against man.
With Diontae Johnson banged up and potentially facing shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell, there could be more targets to go around elsewhere. I'm projecting Mingo for closer to six targets and 3.3 catches, with around a 63% chance of going over 2.5 receptions.
