Week 6 is right around the corner and player props are being released around the market.
Here are all the important notes and bets to keep an eye on this Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers' Longest Completion Over/Under 36.5 Yards (DraftKings)
The Bears have had an Aaron Rodgers problem in Chicago seemingly since he took over for the Packers' offense.
Not only does Rodgers own the division rival in the win-loss column — he's won 20 of his 25 starts against the Bears, including eight of the last nine — he makes them pay through the air.
Rodgers has cashed four straight longest completion props against Chicago and six of the last seven.
Aaron Rodgers' Longest Completion vs. Bears (Last 7)
| Year | Longest Completion |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 72 |
| 2020 | 39 |
| 2019 | 49 |
| 2019 | 47 |
| 2018 | 28 |
| 2018 | 75 |
| 2017 | 58 |
| 2016 | 60 |
The loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was placed on short-term IR earlier this month, is an obvious blow to this prop. The slot receiver paces the NFL in average target distance (20.9) this season and is fresh off a league-leading 20.4 yards per reception in 2020.
However, Davante Adams can step right in.
The star-studded receiver ranks third in both yards per route run (3.74) and deep targets (10) in 2021. He popped a 59-yard play last week in transit to 11 catches, 206 yards and one score.
Mac Jones Longest Completion Over/Under 36.5 Yards (DraftKings)
Longest completion props do require a bit of luck.
It's not that simple to go over the total on Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes every game, and under on game managers like Teddy Bridgewater.
Even conservative quarterbacks who don't make a lot of risky throws can pop a big play, capitalize on a busted coverage, or watch a receiver break a handful of tackles on a simple screen pass over the course of four quarters.
Enter Jones, who's an interesting case study.
The rookie was lauded for his decision-making and accuracy out of college.
So far, so good: Jones owns the fifth-best completion percentage through five weeks (71.1%) and has been relatively conservative, tying for the third-lowest yards per attempt (6.5) in the league.
Entering Week 6, the Alabama product still hasn't cashed a longest completion prop. He's recorded highs of 26, 32, 31, 21 and 24 since the opener.
The kneejerk reaction is to blame Jones' meager yards per attempt.
However, three other quarterbacks average 6.5 YPA this year: Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan. The trio has seven combined completions of 39 yards or longer. Jones has frankly been a tad unlucky.
Something has to give sooner than later, and Sunday's game against the Cowboys could be the slump-buster.
New England's projected for the second-lowest run-block win rate this week.
The Patriots likely have to throw in order to beat Dallas as a 3.5-home favorite, with a total climbing north of 50 — and they certainly can.
Jones is still getting plenty of time in the pocket, ranking seventh in protection rate. Dallas, meanwhile, has squandered more yards per completion this season (11.5) than last year's historically bad defense (11.0). The secondary's also 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed.
Look for Jakobi Meyers (15th in unrealized air yards and 16th in deep-ball targets) or Nelson Agholor (18.4 YPC in 2020) to hit at least one home-run play in a potential track meet.
James Robinson Over/Under 16.5 Longest Rush (DraftKings)
The highlights are few and far between so far in Jacksonville, but Robinson's starting to cook.
The second-year back's averaged 105 rushing yards on an even 17 carries per game over the last three, after totaling just 72 on 16 over the first two.
Week 6 is another dynamite spot to back Robinson, particularly on his longest rush prop.
Not only has he ripped off a carry of 20 or more yards in three straight, but Miami's also given up a rush of 17 or longer in every game this fall.
Dolphins' Longest Rush Allowed By Week (2021)
| Opponent | Ball Carrier | Longest Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Damien Harris | 35 |
| Bills | Devin Singletary | 46 |
| Raiders | Peyton Barber | 27 |
| Colts | Jonathan Taylor | 38 |
| Buccaneers | Leonard Fournette | 17 |
The Dolphins allow an explosive rush on 12% of snaps. Robinson, meanwhile, is third in football is Rushing Yards Over Expected (91), trailing only Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott.
Other Notes
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow has registered multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. He draws a Lions defense ranking 21st in opponent completion percentage (68.2%).
- How good has Marquise Brown been for the Ravens? Baltimore's WR1 has crushed his longest reception prop in seven straight games (highs of 30, 28, 29, 42, 37, 49 and 43) since the start of last year's playoffs. His number's 24.5 against the Chargers.
