When I go into the Action Labs Player Props tool on Saturdays, I don't go looking for any player or one game in particular.
The two edges that happened to jump out at me this week both happen to be Bengals players in their matchup against the Saints. We're betting Ja'Marr Chase, which is exciting, and Samaje Perine, who with all due respect you may not be too giddy to put your money on.
Regardless of your excitement level for those players or Bengals vs. Saints in general, these are two of the many props that Sean Koerner's projections show value on this week.
Ja'Marr Chase
Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Those who drafted Chase in the first round of their fantasy drafts will be disappointed with his output since Week 1.
Chase started the season as he ended last year: dominating. He had 10 catches on 16 targets for 129 yards to begin his Year 2 campaign.
In his last four games, though, Chase is averaging 5.5 catches and 53.5 yards per game with only one total touchdown. He’s still being targeted 9.3 times, which is encouraging.
Chase is simply not running the same kinds of routes he did last season. He has become a more intermediate target down the field instead of the home run hitter he was as a rookie.
It should be noted that star CB Marshon Lattimore will miss this game for the Saints. Chances are he would've spent most of his time on Sunday covering Chase. The reason for Chase's different role is the Bengals' inability to block for Burrow, which will likely to continue being a problem against Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport.
This is a huge number, one Action Labs is projecting him to comfortably miss. His total is 82.5 at FanDuel, but Labs projects him for just 66.7.
Samaje Perine
Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Perine obviously is the Bengals’ backup running back. The former Oklahoma standout is backing up another former Oklahoma standout in Joe Mixon.
Perine definitely has a role in this offense, though. In hurry-up situations, third-and-long situations and in the Bengals’ 2-minute offense, Perine is usually on the field. In 21 regular-season games since the start of last season, he has at least one catch in all but two.
On the ground is a different story, although Perine does have 15 carries this season, and 13 of those have come in the Bengals’ last three games. In those last three games, Perine has 64 rushing yards on a 4.92 yards-per-carry average.
That means we might just need two carries from Perine to hit the over. The Saints offense looked rejuvenated last week with a big dose of Taysom Hill, so there is shootout potential in New Orleans. If there are points being scored, that likely means we’re seeing the Bengals play the kind of offense that will see Perine get his share of touches.
Perine is projected for 12 rushing yards this week. His mean receiving yards projection is also 12, which shows great value on his 7.5 total.
