While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite NFL player prop picks on Fridays. Through five weeks, I’ve gone 9-6 for +5.5 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 21 of 27 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 6!
Patrick Mahomes
Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props as Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have been mainstays for this series. However, sportsbooks have caught on to them trucking defenses and now, both of their betting lines have increased significantly. That’s why we’re pivoting to Patrick Mahomes and banking on him to rush for 24 or more yards against the Bills in the marquee game of Week 6.
Mahomes isn’t considered a traditional dual-threat compared to the likes of Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but he definitely has the capability to chew up yards on the ground. The Chiefs quarterback has topped this number in three straight games and averaged over six yards per carry in those contests.
In two games vs. Buffalo last season (including postseason), Mahomes rushed 15 times for 130 yards (8.6 yards per carry). The Bills haven’t really been tested by an elite running QB this season except for Jackson, who rushed for 73 yards on 11 carries.
While I don’t expect Mahomes to top Jackson's number, getting to 24 yards seems doable given how much the Bills secondary will be focusing on stopping Kansas City's elite passing game.
Jeff Wilson
Over 1.5 Receptions (+110, DraftKings)
In Kyle Shanahan's offense, the running back is crucial to moving the ball. That’s why San Francisco has so many different options to rush in Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk and even Tevin Coleman. But Wilson still seems to be the lead back so I think it’s worth a swing for him to get two or more receptions against Atlanta.
Ever since Eli Mitchell went down with an injury in Week 1, the 49ers backfield has been Wilson’s show. Yes, Deebo still cuts into those carries, but Wilson has had the lion's share of touches with 74 carries to Samuel’s 21. Wilson has also played the most snaps at this position for the season and has two or more catches in three of five games this season.
The Falcons haven't done much to stop screen passes to running backs in 2022. They rank 25th in passes allowed to opposing running backs (29 in five games) with the RB1 having two or more catches in four of five games. Against Tampa Bay, Atlanta allowed 10 catches to Leonard Fournette and three to Rachaad White.
I acknowledge the emergence of Coleman in this offense, but at these odds, they both can eat and we still hit the bet.
Kirk Cousins
To Throw Interception (+125, DraftKings)
Six QBs have plus odds to throw an INT in Week 6, including Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
While those three have been hit or miss this season with turnovers, there’s a sneaky quarterback to bet that I can’t overlook in this spot — Kirk Cousins.
Full disclosure: Cousins isn’t usually a QB I bet for this prop as his interception rate swings too much from season to season. In 68 career games with the Vikings, Cousins only has 41 interceptions, which is pretty decent for today’s passing standards. However, this year, he’s on pace to smash his passing attempts total in a season with 198 attempts in five games, which would be close to 700 for the year.
His career high was 606 attempts in Washington (2016), when he threw 12 interceptions in 16 games. I mention this because the Vikings have started to become a pass-first offense with the emergence of Justin Jefferson. Now Cousins has thrown five interceptions, with at least one pick in three of his last four games.
As for the Dolphins, they have only one interception this season but the dry heat of Miami is unforgiving, especially if the Vikings get behind early and have to play catch up via the pass. With QB Skylar Thompson likely getting the nod for the Fins, the only chance Miami has of winning this game is forcing some turnovers. With such a close spread, sportsbooks likely know this too.
