As we prepare to make our NFL Week 6 picks, several key storylines have emerged early in the season. Rookie quarterbacks have posted a combined 10-5 straight-up record, while favorites of seven or more points are just 1-7 for the year after another wild week. Identifying the top teams has been challenging in 2024. In this article, we’ll explore key strategies for making your NFL Week 6 picks, whether you’re choosing a survivor pool selection, assigning confidence points, or seeking upset picks to improve your chances in weekly NFL contests.
At PoolGenius, we specialize in identifying top-value opportunities. We provide you with the tools to maximize your chances of success in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks: Can Eagles Buck the Trend?
For the fourth time in five weeks, last week's most popular survivor pick (Seattle) lost. The biggest favorite has also been upset four times, with San Francisco being last week's victim, separate from the most popular pick.
This season's unpredictability is evident in multiple ways. Over the past decade, the average survival rate for each week was 74.5 percent. This year, none of the weeks have hit that mark, and four out of five have seen less than 60 percent of entries survive.
As a result, we estimate that only about 1.7 percent of all entries that began in Week 1 remain alive without a loss.
Here's another way to visualize just how unpredictable this season has been.
From 2014 to 2023, the biggest favorite of the week (based on our consensus moneyline data) lost an average of 2.7 times per season. This isn’t necessarily the most popular pick, as a team can be the biggest favorite across multiple weeks in a year.
However, only one year in that span saw more than four of the biggest weekly favorites lose, with five losses in 2017. We’ve already reached four big upsets, and there are still 13 weeks to go.
In this context, the Philadelphia Eagles are both the biggest favorite and the most popular pick for Week 6. Coming off a bye, they should be healthier, especially after missing both starting wide receivers in recent weeks. Cleveland’s offense has struggled, and current betting market data gives Philadelphia around a 79% chance to win.
Of course, there are other reasons to consider picks besides Philadelphia, even if you set aside any belief in a 2024 "curse" wiping out the biggest favorites as if we're heading toward a Halloween horror movie ending. The Eagles carry significant future value, ranking as the fourth most valuable team behind Kansas City, Baltimore, and Buffalo.
If they are highly popular this week, fewer entries will have them available for those critical future matchups.
Check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see which teams we’ve identified as the highest-value options for Week 6 in your pool, and where we would slot the Philadelphia Eagles in that mix.
NFL Week 6 Pick'em Strategy: Unpopular Picks Give You an Edge
As we approach Week 6, the three closest matchups by spread — each under a field goal — are Chicago-Jacksonville, Indianapolis-Tennessee, and Buffalo-New York Jets. Despite oddsmakers predicting tight games, the public is avoiding the Titans and Jaguars.
Our projections show these games as near toss-ups based on win odds, yet only 25 percent of participants are picking Jacksonville, and 31 percent are siding with Tennessee.
While we aim to keep the math simple, it’s important to highlight that in large contests, hitting on picks like these can help you stand out and gain leverage over the field.
If you accept that these games are like coin flips, the chances of going 2-0 or 0-2 remain the same regardless of which teams you pick. However, choosing the unpopular Jaguars-Titans combo aligns you with about 8 percent of the pool, while picking the popular Bears-Colts side puts you in line with over half the participants.
The key is to think about “what do we win, if we win.” If you side with the popular picks, you’ll continue competing against most of the pool in the remaining games without gaining a significant edge. But if you choose the less popular route and your picks hit, you’ve just moved ahead of more than half the pool. With only 12 other games in a weekly format, that’s a substantial advantage.
Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product for specific recommendations for which value picks make sense based on the specifics of your pool.
Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024
Maximizing your chances of winning NFL survivor and football pick'em pools comes down to consistently stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, is navigating through the massive amounts of data and complex calculations involved—something most players don’t have the time, expertise, or interest to handle.
At PoolGenius, we take care of all the data collection and analysis for you, allowing you to compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Through our partnership with Action Network, you can use the links below to enjoy a no-obligation 3-day free trial and gain access to exclusive season discounts.
