NFL Odds & Picks
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Billy Ward: After taking — and winning — the first half over in last week’s Steelers game, I’m going back to the far more comfortable under. The line is 23 for Bucs-Steelers, essentially the same as it was for Pittsburgh's game against Buffalo.
However, Buffalo is tied for second in first half scoring in the NFL, while Tampa Bay ranks 22nd. Clearly at least one of those lines is/was off — and I’m betting it’s both.
As a refresher, Pittsburgh plays far slower in the first half of games than the second, a trend that’s held firm for multiple seasons under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Bucs have exhibited a similar trend this year — though that’s likely due to falling behind (see their low first half scoring totals.)
Either way, more than half of this game’s scoring is likely to come following halftime. Assuming the pregame total is roughly correct, the first half under is good value.
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Nick Giffen: Green Bay’s slow pace under head coach Matt LaFleur has translated to only 1.48 field goals attempted per game by Crosby since 2019. This season, Crosby has only six field goal attempts in five games (1.2 per game).Now he faces a Jets defense that has allowed only 6.8 kicking points per game.
On the weather forecast front, 13-14 mph winds that are nearly a direct crosswind won’t help as Crosby struggled from 40-plus yards last year. While he is 3-for-3 from 40-plus yards this year, he has yet to attempt anything longer than 48 yards.
I have Crosby projected for 1.55 field goals made and 2.67 extra points made, with a 56.1% chance of going under this number. That makes getting plus money very nice value.
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Sean Koerner: Garrett Wilson has cooled off since Zach Wilson returned to action, posting lines of 2/41/0 and 3/27/0. With numerous mouths to feed in New York’s offense, Zach Wilson has been spreading the ball around fairly evenly — at the expense of the rookie wideout.
Garrett Wilson has been much more efficient against man coverage (2.90 YPRR) than he has against zone (1.57), so a matchup against a Packers team that uses zone at the eighth highest rate could ding him here.
I’m projecting him closer to 3.8 receptions and a 66% chance he stays under 4.5 receptions.
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Nick Giffen: San Francisco is a 2-to-1 favorite in this game on the juice-free moneyline, meaning Atlanta will likely have to come from behind if they want to win.
The 49ers already allow the third most targets to the RB position, and that could increase if Atlanta has to throw more.
Allgeier played 59% of snaps in Week 5 and figures to continue that role in Week 6.
My in-game model also forecasts Atlanta to be more pass heavy and run more plays than Koerner’s projections. If that’s the case, we could bump Allgeier’s median projection up even more than the 9 yards Koerner already forecasts him for.
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Billy Ward: While Atlanta is averaging well above this total on the season, things have gotten much worse for them. Cordarelle Patterson is the engine of this offense, and he’s on injured reserve — the Falcons scored just 15 points in their first game without him.
Kyle Pitts is also questionable, though his baffling usage means he won’t have much of an impact even if he does play. The Falcons are committed to the run, ranking 29th in pass rate over expectation this season.
That’s a problem against the 49ers, who rank first in defensive DVOA both overall and against the run. Not that things would be much better in the passing game — line play projections have this as the least favorable pass blocking matchup for the offense.
With San Francisco playing safe, ball control football, there probably won’t be many opportunities for Atlanta to pick up easy scores via turnovers or short fields.
If you want to play this pick a bit safer, Caesar’s has the line set at 20.5 points, but you have to pay -125 for it. I prefer the DraftKings line.
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Billy Ward: Well, we did it guys. Our relentless hammering of this prop has caused BetMGM to change its pricing. Rather than set the exact same line for this in every game, they’re now varying the odds.
Based on the lines for Week 6, their new formula involves pricing this prop based on the total. However, it correlates more closely with the spread.
We’ll have less overall chances to bet this prop, as close, low scoring games are accurately priced. However, we’ll also have bigger edges on games like Cardinals-Seahawks.
Based on my data set, games with spreads of three or fewer and totals of 50 more should produce a “No” outcome on this bet roughly 43% of the time. Fair odds on this bet would be +130, but we’re getting way better than that.
I’d recommend betting less this time though. While the edge is higher than it was before the pricing change, the variance is higher as well.
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Sean Koerner: Rookie Skyy Moore has been eating into Hardman’s playing time recently and it’s resulted in Hardman’s route run rate dropping into the 45-50% range over the past two games.
It’s going to be much tougher for Hardman to clear this number if that trend continues. Plus, this is a matchup where Patrick Mahomes could face a higher rate of pressure against an elite Bills pass rush.
On the season, Hardman has seen an 11% target share when Mahomes has a clean pocket, but that plummets to just 5.7% when Mahomes faces pressure.
I’m projecting Hardman to stay under 2.5 receptions 58% of the time and it’s an added bonus to get plus odds.
