NFL Odds & Picks
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Thanks to 54% of the action and 61% of the money coming in on the over, the total for this game has been bet up from 43.5 to 46. However, I think this matchup sets up well for the under.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is facing his former team, and if there is anyone who would be able to scheme up a game plan that could frustrate Lamar Jackson, it’s him.
The Giants are going to blitz frequently. And while Jackson has shown a ton of improvement against the blitz this season, he will be without his top wide receiver (Rashod Bateman) for a second straight week. Bateman’s absence is significant because the Ravens do not have great depth behind him. It was apparent last week when Jackson struggled, only throwing for 174 yards on 19-for-32 passing.
A key player to watch is Giants LB Jaylon Smith, who has looked amazing in his first two games. He flashed some of the upside he showed in Dallas a few years ago and he could be key in spying Jackson, limiting the damage he can do with his legs.
The Ravens defense has been vulnerable to deep throws this season, as they've allowed the second most completions (11) and yards (361) on pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield.
However, the Giants aren’t a team equipped to take advantage of that as they have attempted the fewest pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield (7). In fact, Daniel Jones has the lowest intended air yards per attempt (6.0) of all qualified QBs.
I expect this to be a run-heavy, low-scoring game and I’m projecting it closer to 44.
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FanDuel QuickSlip: Dolphins +3
Teddy Bridgewater is expected to be active, but he will likely only be an emergency option as the Dolphins are expected to give rookie Skylar Thompson his first career start.
Thompson ended up playing the majority of Miami's Week 5 game against the Jets as Bridgewater went down on the first play of the game. He struggled his way to a 166/0/1 passing line in a 40-17 loss.
I think having a week to prepare for Thompson to start will allow head coach Mike McDaniel to have a better game plan for the rookie. Thompson had extensive playing time in the preseason and looked surprisingly good. There is no doubt that he is a significant drop-off from both Bridgewater and Tua Tagovailoa.
If Tagovailoa were starting this week, the Dolphins would likely be four-point favorites, so this is about a seven-point line move that is crossing the most valuable number in NFL spread betting (+/- 3) not once, but twice. My QB ratings would only adjust this number 5.5-6 points, so I’m projecting this closer to Vikings -2.
Having Bridgewater active provides a bit of a safety net to this bet because if the rookie struggles, we could see him come in as relief. If Bridgewater were starting this game, it would likely be closer to a pick 'em.
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The Rams are in the midst of a two-game losing streak and the public wants nothing to do with them as 64% of the action and 93% of the money has come in on the Panthers.
For the second straight week, the Rams had the unluckiest result, you can check out why that is in this Bad Beats piece that is part of our Luck Rankings concept. Normally you would worry about a team in the Rams' position to look past their opponent, but they will be giving max effort here and I look for them to bounce back in a big way.
That’s despite the fact that the Panthers just fired their head coach (Matt Ruhle) and also fired their defensive coordinator (Phil Snow). With Baker Mayfield sidelined with an ankle injury, they will also be starting backup P.J. Walker.
I have no doubt that not having Mayfield and Rhule will be a positive thing, but in the short term, the Panthers are on the verge of implosion. It’s possible they start trading away assets like Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and possibly others soon.
I’m fading the public here and going with the Rams. I have them projected closer to -11 and they will be extremely focused in this spot.
