Panthers vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins offense is arguably the best in the league and capable of putting up a ton of points. However, it typically needs to face an above-average offense for the over to hit. Miami games this season have hit the over three times, and all of those came against offenses that rank in the top 16 in DVOA, two of which were in the top five.
Miami's two unders were against teams that rank bottom six in DVOA, which happens to be where the Panthers rank.
Miami has generated the fourth-most pressure in the NFL this season. Bryce Young has struggled when under pressure, ranking 21st in success rate from a clean pocket but 34th when facing pressure.
The Panthers are a run funnel defense. They rank 11th in DVOA against the pass and 32nd against the run. That means the Dolphins could lean on the run more here, especially with potentially high winds in Miami, which would only help the under.
Also importantly, the Dolphins will be without stud rookie RB De’Von Achane, who leads the NFL in 20+ yard rushes in just limited action. Miami will also be missing starting center Connor Williams.
I'm projecting this closer to 46 and love under 47.5 since 47 is a key number.
Cardinals vs. Rams
Heading into the season, the Cardinals were considered the worst team in the league. They’ve been a bit better than expected and now, I would say it’s up for debate between a handful of teams as to which is actually the worst.
If you look at a metric called “average lead” that measures how many points a team is leading or trailing throughout the game, the Cardinals are one of five teams that are right at zero. What does that mean? It means that on average, they haven’t been leading or trailing. The other other teams have combined for a .500 record on the season, which makes sense, but the Cardinals are 1-4, so I’m considering them unlucky.
One of those other four teams that have an average lead of zero on the season is the Rams. Los Angeles is the better team, but it shouldn’t be favored by a TD here.
These two teams have been pretty even to date. I already mentioned that both have had an average lead of zero. Both defenses rank bottom six in DVOA, while both offenses rank just inside the top 10 in DVOA.
This sets up as being a more back-and-forth, high-scoring game. Even if the Rams do get a lead of seven of more points, the Cardinals would be a threat for the backdoor cover.
I like getting Arizona at a key number of +7 here.
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