Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you're able to get the bets in as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 6 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Chargers vs. Broncos Pick
These two teams are barely playing football this season. I challenge you to name a receiver from both teams outside of Courtland Sutton… I’ll wait.
The Chargers and Broncos have the worst weapons in the league. In my ranks, they’re 31st and 32nd. Both offenses run cautious, short plays and do their best to limit mistakes but still make them. To top it all off, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix haven’t been very good.
Defensively, each entered the weekend in the top five in defensive DVOA. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter comes from Michigan and has done an incredible job with the lack of talent he’s working with.
Denver’s DC Vance Joseph will have to bring pressure to L.A.’s offensive line. Right tackle Joe Alt will likely return and we still have to see with left tackle Rashawn Slater’s injury status.
Neither team has faced great offenses this season and that trend will continue. Combined, they also have only allowed over 20 points once, when Denver let up 26 to Seattle during Week 1.
Additionally, they’ve combined to allow under 37 points 78% of the time this season. With both teams' aptitudes for a low-scoring game, the under seems like a real possibility.
Thirty seven is the last key number for this game. Since November 2019, anytime a game was listed at 37 or below, the under hit 73% of the time (38-14-1, including 4-2 this season). 58.5% of those games were for games that went 30 or below.
Bengals vs. Giants Pick
This will be my third straight Hot Read picking against the Giants. It unfortunately didn’t go so well for Seattle, but now we get this key number for free! I was eyeing this game to be at -4.5, but -3.5 for the Bengals is even better.
Despite the loss against the Ravens, the Bengals’ offense is playing better than ever – it’s not their fault that their defense is atrocious. No matter how good you are, you’ll be able to beat the Bengals by dropping 41 on them like the Ravens did or 38 from the Commanders.
Cincinnati is 1-4, but all of those losses were one-score games and a combined 15 points. It entered Sunday as the fourth-best DVOA offense and dropped 38 on a very talented Ravens defense. Not only that, they’re second in EPA/Drive and second in Success Rate.
Joe Burrow has been dealing, posting a .51 EPA/play. I got curious after the Baltimore game and looked up his MVP odds, which went from 25-1 to 15-1!
The Giants have one of the worst secondaries in the league. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on fire right now, I can see the Bengals lighting up the scoreboard.
