As Week 6 of the NFL season approaches, savvy bettors have the opportunity to capitalize on teams that have been overvalued against the spread.
Historical trends, coupled with insights from proprietary systems — like PRO Systems and Bet Labs — highlight intriguing angles for making strategic bets.
This week, the “Fade Covering Teams” system has identified five NFL spread picks worthy of closer examination. Games of interest include Commanders vs. Ravens, Chargers vs. Broncos and the Monday Night Football clash.
NFL Spread Picks Week 6: Teams Due to Regress ATS
These five Week 6 ATS picks are rooted in a systematic approach, recognizing teams that have been overperforming in recent matchups.
Historical data suggests that teams covering the spread by more than five points per game are due for regression, especially when facing opponents with a win percentage ranging from 0% to 60%. In such scenarios, the underperforming team covers the spread 57% of the time.
Jaguars vs. Bears Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 6
The London Game kicks off early, featuring the Jaguars against the Bears. The 3-2 Bears, who have beat three underwhelming teams, have been beating the closing line by more than five points per game. According to our PRO Systems, they're ripe for a fade.
The recommendation here is to back the Jaguars with a spread of +2.5, capitalizing on what is expected to be a market correction.
PRO System Pick: Jaguars ATS
Buccaneers vs. Saints Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 6
Next, the New Orleans Saints take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints have been covering by a hefty margin of more than 10 points per game, largely against teams with weaker records.
The ATS pick here suggests taking the Buccaneers +2.5, as they’re poised to exploit this overvaluation of the Saints.
PRO System Pick: Buccaneers ATS
Commanders vs. Ravens Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 6
The early window gem is the clash between the Commanders and Ravens. Washington, led by impressive rookie QB and MVP contender Jayden Daniels, has been covering by over 10 points per game!
Yet, history and the "Fade Covering Teams" system indicate they might be overvalued. Hence, the Ravens -6.5 is the suitable pick against the spread.
PRO System Pick: Ravens ATS
Chargers vs. Broncos Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 6
The Broncos, under the leadership of rookie Bo Nix, have enjoyed a hot streak, covering by 8.7 points per game.
Therefore, the ATS pick is to back the Chargers, who are off a bye.
PRO System Pick: Chargers ATS
Bills vs. Jets Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 6
Lastly, the Buffalo Bills have been covering the spread by 6.5 points per game, setting the stage for potential value on their opponents.
The New York Jets, benefiting from this trend, make for a suitable selection as they are plus the points in their first game after firing coach Robert Saleh.
PRO System Pick: Jets ATS
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that's where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
