'Tis not yet Hallow's Eve and the folks in Denver are getting their shovels ready. Have you ever seen those news reports before a snowstorm that show people buying shovels?
The shovel aisle is completely picked clean by frantic shoppers. I'm sorry, but did you not own a shovel beforehand?
You're not hallucinating, though. My sister, who lives in Denver, sent a picture to our family group chat of snow falling on Monday, and it'll be falling once again on football Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos: O/U 52
All right, here's the snow lowdown. Snow will be falling overnight and throughout the morning, with the flakes lingering on and dissipating as the afternoon progresses.
This is not going to be another Colts-Bills snow bowl. It could just be some flurries by the time the game starts, so I doubt the snow itself will be too much of a factor.
The over/under has dropped just one point since opening even though 67% of bettors are on the under.
The temperature might be more of a factor, and perhaps not in the way that you think.
First off, let the record show that dating back to 2003, there has not been a game with an average temperature below 30 degrees before Week 11.
Week 11! This is friggin' Week 6. Only one person can be behind this …
Usually my Snow Miser gifs don't come out of the woodwork until December.
In games with temps below 30, the over has hit 59.2% of the time, which is surprising. In games with a total higher than 50, the over is 7-2.
Obviously if the forecast changes and the snowfall looks worse, the under may be the play. But based on the current weather report, a contrarian over might be the way to go.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): O/U 46.5
The Monday night game in Green Bay will not be a pleasant one to attend. I hope those cheeseheads are insulated.
Temperatures won't be as low as they are in Denver, but it will be around 40 degrees by kickoff and drop into the mid-30s by the end of the night.
This game also is projected to have average wind speeds of 10 mph. NFL games played in double-digit winds have produced a 55.6% win rate for unders.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tennessee Titans: O/U 41.5
As is the case in Denver, the under is a popular choice in Tennessee. However, I don't think the forecast has anything to do with it.
Both of these teams have gone under in three of their five games and I don't think many people are expecting Tennessee's offense (29th in points per game) to put up a ton of points against Baltimore's defense that has allowed the fewest points per game in the league.
This game doesn't have the chilly temps of Denver or Green Bay — in fact it'll be a lovely day in the mid-70s — but it does have 10 mph winds. This total has dropped from 42.5 to 41.5 since opening.
