The story from Week 6 was clearly the "Public Strikes Back" and the domination of road favorites over the past two weeks. With Chiefs vs. 49ers, Lions vs. Vikings, Jets vs. Steelers, and Texans vs. Packers on deck, it is going to be wild week.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 7 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 3 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Pat The Dog
Super Bowl Rematch
The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-0 straight up this season. In the last 20 years, they are the fifth team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
- 2024 Chiefs 5-0 SU
- 2019 Patriots 8-0 SU
- 2015 Patriots 10-0 SU
- 2011 Packers 13-0 SU
- 2007 Colts 7-0 SU
The Chiefs joined the 1990 49ers as the only teams in NFL history to start 5-0 after winning back-to-back Super Bowls and now K.C. faces San Francisco this week, a rematch of last season's Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 SU as an underdog (11-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up mark for a QB as a dog (minimum 10 starts) in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 24-10 SU, 25-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog.
Last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off a bye four times — he’s 4-0 SU/ATS. In his career, that number is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. His two losses are to Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2005 Super Bowl.
Road Warriors
What. A. Week.
Road favorites finished 9-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 6 and are 12-0 SU/ATS over the last two weeks.
This would be the most covers in a single week without an ATS loss by road favs since the merger in 1970.
The North Remembers
Can Vikings Keep It Going?
Let's talk Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North.
The NFC North is now 18-4 ATS (82%) entering Week 7 — the best ATS win percentage for any division through six weeks of a season in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
• Vikings: 5-0 ATS
• Bears: 5-1 ATS
• Lions: 4-1 ATS
• Packers: 4-2 ATS
The Vikings are the story of the NFL through six weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the first quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over.
The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a season 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a 6.5 preseason win total. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
Public Strikes Back
Turn of Fortune
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 38-49-3 ATS (43.7%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,446. Through five weeks, it was the worst start for the betting public in the last 20 years. Now, it is the fourth-worst start through six weeks after the public went 10-3-1 ATS.
Public ATS Record by Week:
+ Week 6: 10-3-1 ATS
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Jim and John
Harbaugh's On Monday Night
The Harbaugh brothers are a combined 51-25 SU and 43-31-2 ATS in night games as NFL head coaches.
When they are coaching on Monday Night Football, they are a combined 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS as head coaches.
Jim Harbaugh has thrived on MNF in his NFL career. He’s 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, all with the 49ers.
In the Wild Card era, that is the most wins without a SU loss for a head coach on Monday Night Football. The Harbaugh brothers are 15-4 SU in their last 19 total MNF games dating back to 2011.
NFC Beast
Lamar Looks To Extend Mark
Lamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 23 times in his career, he is 22-1 SU (11-11-1 ATS) in those games – his only loss was against the Giants in 2022.
When Jackson faces an NFC team in any game outside of the 1 p.m. window, he’s 8-0 SU, including 6-0 SU on extended rest when he faces an NFC team.
Early Points
First Half Overs Cruising
Since the beginning of last season, first half overs are hitting at a 55.2% rate. First half overs are 55-36-1 (60%) this season, including 14-7 to the over in night games.
The 55-36-1 1H over mark is the second-best over the last 20 years through six weeks.
NFL first half unders were 105-83-3 (56%) in night games between 2021-23.
First Half Overs are .500 or better every week
+ Week 6: 9-5
+ Week 5: 9-5
+ Week 4: 12-4
+ Week 3: 9-6-1
+ Week 2: 8-8
+ Week 1: 8-8
New Yuck, New Yuck
Big Apple Struggles at Night
The Jets and Giants are a combined 4-31 straight up playing at night in primetime since 2019.
There are four more night games involving the Jets and Giants left this season, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Jets and Steelers this week.
Second Act
Levis' 2nd Half Struggles
There have been 158 quarterback who have started at least 10 NFL games in the past 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of Monday Night Football, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
Every NFL Game For Week 7
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➤Thursday home teams are just 40-53 ATS since 2019, including 36-47 ATS in night Thursday games.
➤Since the beginning of last season, overs on Thursday Night Football are 14-9 (61%), going over the total by 5.8 PPG.
The best mark for the over on TNF since 2017-18 (19-11 to the over).
➤Rookie Bo Nix is getting the start for the Broncos on the road on TNF. Since 2006, rookie QBs are 14-24 SU on Thursday Night Football. Over the last two seasons they are 3-2 SU.
When those QBs are on the road, that record falls to 7-19 SU since 2006, including 0-2 SU since the start of last season.
➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 3-0 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 11.5 PPG.
Here is the list of QBs 3-0 ATS or better on the road this season: Bo Nix and Joe Burrow.
If Bo Nix covers this week in New Orleans, here is the list of rookie QBs to start 4-0 ATS on the road:
2008-11 Dan Orlovsky, 7-0 ATS
2017-18 Patrick Mahomes, 6-0 ATS
2016 Dak Prescott, 5-0 ATS
2011 Andy Dalton 5-0 ATS
2022-23 Bailey Zappe, 4-0 ATS
2018 Lamar Jackson, 4-0 ATS
2016-17 Jimmy G, 4-0 ATS
➤The Broncos are already 3-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 80-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
How about at home? The Broncos are 1-2 ATS this year and 8-12 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 20-28 ATS.
➤This will be Sean Payton’s sixth night game with the Denver Broncos. He is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Dating back to 2020 with the Broncos and Saints, Payton is 3-12 ATS in night primetime games, failing to cover the spread by 2.6 PPG.
Of the 55 head coaches to coach a night game since 2020, that is the least profitable mark in the NFL. In that span, Payton is 1-1 ATS with Taysom Hill, 0-1 ATS with Ian Book, Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian and 1-4 ATS with Drew Brees and Russell Wilson.
Payton was 31-20-1 ATS between 2006-19, the third-best coach in night games of 106 coaches in that span.
➤On the other side, Dennis Allen has been just as bad in primetime night games. He is 2-9 SU and 2-7-2 ATS coaching in night games, including 1-3 SU with the Raiders and 1-6 SU with the Saints.
To also be fair, Allen has faced a gauntlet in primetime: Peyton Manning, Trevor Lawrence, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Philip Rivers … and Bryce Young (whom he’s 1-0 against).
➤Dennis Allen is 1-10 SU on short rest in his NFL career, including 0-4 SU at home.
➤Last week, the Bucs-Saints over/under closed at 42.5. New Orleans led 27-24 at the half – for 51 total points. That was just the 3rd game since 2010 to have 50+ pts at the half with a full game total below 43.
With both the Bucs and Saints at home, teams after going over the total by halftime of their previous game and then return home are 90-76-6 to the under in their next game.
➤There were some big expectations for the Saints after a historic start. Now after a few losses and Derek Carr’s injury, they look to be the outlier.
Saints were the third team since the merger to score 44+ points in three straight games joining the…
2024 Saints – Now 2-4 SU
2018 Saints – Started 10-1 SU
2007 Patriots – Started 18-0 SU
The Saints were tied for the third-most points for any team in the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era…
1968 Raiders, 95 – Went 12-2 SU
2009 Saints, 93 – Started 13-0 SU
2024 Saints, 91 – Now 2-4 SU
1971 Cowboys, 91 – Went 11-3 SU
➤Derek Carr has missed three regular season games for injuries in his career. He also missed a playoff game for the Raiders in the 2016 season and was benched for final two games of the 2022 season.
Week 6, 2024 (oblique)
Week 5, 2017 (back)
Week 17, 2016 (leg)
➤With Derek Carr sidelined again, the Saints go to a backup QB this week.
This will be the Saints' 27th game with a backup QB dating back to 2013 and they are a very respectable 13-13 SU and 16-10 ATS using a backup QB over that span.
Their last such game prior to Week 6 came in 2022 when Andy Dalton started four games for New Orleans, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.
➤So far during the 2024 season, we’ve had 14 games started by backup QBs. They are 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Here is how backup QBs have performed last two seasons.
48-67 SU
56-53-6 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their first start with the team.
12-22 SU
15-18-1 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their second start with the team.
9-14 SU
13-10 ATS
➤The Saints defense has taken a turn allowing 51 points to the Buccaneers last week, and 26 points in consecutive games prior to that against the Chiefs and Falcons.
Historically, the Saints are 40-29-1 ATS after allowing 24 or more points in consecutive games since 2003, but 30-15-1 ATS under Sean Payton and 10-14 ATS under all other coaches, including 2-5 ATS with Dennis Allen.
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistent as a road team vs. as a home team.
They are 22-33 ATS at home and 34-20-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the third-worst home team
➤Both the Saints (4) and Jets (3) have lost at least three straight games when having a lead at any point in the game.
Teams to lose at least three straight games with a lead at any point are just 44-82 SU (35%) in their next game since 2019.
➤A few facts and trends from the 47 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 25-22. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-11 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 6-4 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 35-11-1 SU and 31-16 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 18-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 20-15 ATS
66%+: 14-10 ATS
70%+: 8-3 ATS
Favorites of a field goal or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.
Only five international games have seen teams open as dog and close at -1.5 or higher. Those teams are 6-0 SU/ATS.
➤The Jaguars have been a staple in London and overseas during the 47-game international series.
This will be Jacksonville’s 13th game overseas as a franchise, and they are 6-6 SU and ATS. Jacksonville has actually closed as the favorite overseas four times and they are 2-2 SU/ATS.
The Jags have won three of their past five games overseas, including going 2-0 SU/ATS last season in consecutive weeks in London for the first time and losing last week to the Bears. For Trevor Lawrence, this will be 6th game overseas, he is 3-2 SU/ATS.
➤Jerod Mayo will be the 17th rookie head coach to take his team overseas for an International Series game.
14 of the previous 16 faced a coach not in his rookie season – the rookie head coaches are actually above .500 SU, going 9-7 SU, including winning five games in a row SU, three of which listed as underdogs.
This will be just the second time a team playing in an International Series game has a rookie head coach and rookie QB. The Jets in 2021 behind Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson, lost 27-20 to the Falcons.
➤This will be the Patriots’ fifth trip overseas in an International Series game. New England has played Tom Brady and Mac Jones overseas, with Mac losing as 1.5-point underdog vs. Colts and Brady going 3-0 SU/ATS in International Series games.
➤Drake Maye will be the seventh rookie QB to start in an International Series game and the first since Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
Those six QBs are 2-5 SU and ATS, with four of the six QBs losing by 14 or more points.
2024 Drake Maye, Patriots vs. JAC, +6
2024 Caleb Williams, Bears vs. JAC, +1.5, W 35-16
2021 Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. MIA, +2.5 W 23-20
2021 Zach Wilson, Jets vs. ATL, +3, L 27-20
2019 Gardner Minshew, Jaguars vs. HOU, -1 L 26-3
2017 Deshone Kizer, Browns vs. MIN, +11 L 33-16
2014 Blake Bortles, Jaguars vs. DAL, +7.5 L 31-17
2014 Derek Carr, Raiders vs. MIA, +4 L 38-14
➤The Patriots are 1-5 SU, Jaguars are 1-5 SU. This is the third time we’ve had two NFL teams with a win percentage of 20% or less in an overseas game:
2021 Jaguars-Dolphins – Jags (+2.5) won 23-20
2013 Vikings-Steelers – Vikings (+3) won 34-27
➤The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs in their first seven games since 1991 when they were dogs in their first 13 games of the season and finished 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS. More importantly, they were 11-5 to the under in their 16 games.
➤Because it's important we keep an updated tally …
Patriots since Brady left: 30-44 SU, 30-41-3 ATS
Patriots since Belichick left: 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 41 times in five seasons (14-25-2 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019 with Brady, New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
➤Lawrence is 11-22 SU and 16-17 ATS on the road or a neutral site. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $962 away from home in his career. Of the 97 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the ML in that spot.
Dating back to Dec. 1 of last year, Lawrence is 0-7 SU on the road/neutral – the most losses by any QB in that span.
➤Doug Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite:
Underdog: 34-26 ATS
Favorite: 31-36 ATS
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➤Heading in the wrong direction. Seahawks won three in a row to start the season and have now dropped three straight entering Week 7.
Since 1990, Seattle is the 18th team to start 3-0 SU and then drop three straight games. Those teams are 5-11-1 ATS in their next game, with the under going 12-4-1.
➤Seahawks have now lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS. In the last 15 years, Seattle has only played five total games on a 3+ game SU/ATS losing streak and they are 5-0 ATS in those games.
Seattle has also dropped two consecutive games SU/ATS at home entering this contest, including going 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
Teams off consecutive straight-up home losses are just 48-76 SU (39%) in their next game.
➤Last week, Geno Smith was on short rest on TNF against the 49ers and it didn’t go well with two interceptions and a 30-52 passing day.
Smith is 3-10 SU on short rest in his career, that is the third-worst mark of 218 QBs on the moneyline over the past 20 years.
This week on extended rest isn’t too much better for Smith, though. He’s 4-10 SU and 7-7 ATS in that spot, including 2-6 SU on the road.
➤The Seahawks are coming off a loss at home against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 2-3 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 11-28 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
➤Smith is 11-17-2 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-19-2 ATS as an underdog.
Of Smith's 11 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, he is 2-9 ATS in his career.
As a dog, he’s struggled a bit lately, going 4-9 ATS in his last 13 games in the spot
➤On early downs (first and second), Smith has fallen behind his pace a bit from the first three weeks of the season when Seattle was 3-0.
Weeks 1-3 – 3-0 SU
Sixth Success Rate
Fourth CPOE
7.9 aDOT
Weeks 4-6 – 0-3 SU
10th Success Rate
19th CPOE
6.3 aDOT
➤Kirk Cousins may be back on the upswing. His last three starts have gone over the total after a streak of nine straight unders dating back to last season.
That is in contrast to his career tendencies: The over is 86-68-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the fifth-most profitable QB to the over in the last 20 years.
➤The Seahawks go on the road to the east coast this week.
Mountain or Pacific teams who play in the Eastern time zone are 82-48-4 ATS (63%) since 2019.
➤The Falcons have covered the spread in two straight games entering this game vs. Seahawks. Dating back to 2020, a total of 73 games, the Falcons have only covered three straight or more once – back in 2020 (they covered six straight in September and October).
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 8-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after a SU win.
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through six games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks each.
On the season, the Falcons have just five sacks in six games – that is tied for the fewest for any team since the 2014 Rams had just four through six games.
➤Josh Allen has closed as a 4-point favorite or more 27 times over the last three full seasons and the Bills are 9-17-1 ATS in those games. Of the 46 QBs to close over four points in any game during that span, Allen's 9-17-1 ATS mark is the worst.
Allen has done a pretty good job of avoiding upsets, he has closed -7 or higher 36 times and he is 31-5 SU in those games, including 22-2 SU at home. Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz are his two home losses in that spot.
➤Allen has 72 wins in his career and 51 of those 72 wins have been by seven points or more. When the spread for Allen is 6 points or more, he is 34-8 SU. 25 of those 34 games he won by 8 points or more.
➤The interception-less streak lives on: Allen hasn’t thrown an interception in eight straight games. Prior to this eight-game stretch, he had an pick in 12 of his previous 13 games.
In the last decade, the record for consecutive games without an interception is 10: Jared Goff and Derek Carr.
➤Monday night was a wild game between the Bills and Jets, but in his career, Allen is 15-21-1 ATS after facing a divisional opponent, including 4-8 ATS after facing the Jets.
➤There have been 158 QBs who have started at least 10 games in the last 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of MNF, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-10 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-7 SU/ATS as a starter. Levis has scored more than 17 points once in those eight games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he is 2-9 SU/ATS as a starter.
➤Will Levis has accumulated almost 400 total plays at QB this season and last season. Of the 42 QBs to have at least 200 plays since the start of last year, Levis ranked 35th in EPA/play, 33rd in success rate, 38th in completion percentage … and first in air yards at over 10.2 per attempt.
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➤The Browns have yet to score 20 points in a game this season and have yet to have 200-yard passing game.
They are the first team to start a season without reaching either of those marks through six games since … the 1999 Browns did it through seven games.
➤In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 35-28-1 SU (56%), 38-25-1 ATS (60%) – Burrow is 1-5 SU vs. Browns compared to 34-23-1 SU vs. all other teams. Cleveland is Burrow’s least profitable opponent on moneyline.
Burrow is also 0-3 SU on the road vs. Browns – his most road losses without a win in his NFL career.
➤Burrow and Watson have only faced each other twice. Both QBs won at home, while the road team put up a total of 13 pts in both games.
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 45-30 ATS (60%) since 2018, best of any division, they are .500 ATS or better in seven straight seasons and they are 23-15 ATS since 2021.
➤The Bengals and Giants are facing divisional opponents this week on normal rest, coming off a night game in Week 6. The assumption is there may be a letdown, but the opposite has been true. Since 2019, those teams are 63-42 SU (60%) and 57-45-3 ATS (56%).
➤The Browns have lost two consecutive home games outright entering this contest.
Cleveland hasn’t lost three in a row at home since 2019
➤The Browns are 8-16 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 151 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. With an ATS loss to the Bengals, Stefanski would move into last place. Stefanski is 27-22-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤The Browns had +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to playoff results in Cleveland. The Browns had odds of 40-1 or shorter entering the regular season 11 times in the Wild Card era and they've never won a playoff game in those seasons with a combined record of 73-112 SU.
➤Deshaun Watson is 35-36-2 ATS in his career and 14-22-2 ATS as a favorite and 21-15 ATS as an underdog.
Watson has started two home games as an 4-point underdog or more in his career, he is 0-2 SU, but 1-1 ATS. Above a FG underdog, Watson is 5-16 SU in his career home or road.
➤Watson has struggled in his career vs. good opposing offenses. When the opposing team is averaging 24+ PPG, Watson is 8-15-1 ATS (35%) – ranked 251st of 256 QBs since 2003.
That marks includes a 3-9 ATS record at home vs. good offenses.
➤How bad has Watson been recently? Sixty-two QBs have had at least 200 plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 56th in EPA/play, 56th in success rate, 51st in CPOE (completion percentage over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Zach Wilson and Will Levis.
Watson’s last 300-yard game came with the Texans in January 2021.
Jamarcus Russell lost -63.8 total EPA on dropbacks in Weeks 1-6 in 2009. It was the record low since at least 2000 before Watson (-66.2) this season.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following season with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through six weeks, the Browns are 19th in EPA/play on defense at 0.006
➤The Texans look like they are going to close as underdogs for the first time this season.
C.J. Stroud has made 23 starts in his NFL career. He is 11-12 ATS – 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 5-9 ATS as a favorite. As an underdog, Stroud is 8-1 in a 7-point teaser.
➤The Texans are coming off a road win in New England last week. Teams after facing the Patriots in New England are 19-27-1 ATS since 2018
➤CJ Stroud has faced four opponents in his NFL career averaging 24 PPG or more on the season entering the matchup – the Texans are 1-3 ATS in those games and have been outscored 101-59.
➤This is the eighth NFC team Stroud has faced in his career. He is just 2-5 ATS in those games, compared to 9-7 ATS vs. the AFC.
➤The Texans are 5-1 SU this season and listed as underdogs this week. Since 2003, teams with a win percentage of 80% or more in October and November are 75-52-7 ATS (59%) when listed as underdogs for a 15% ROI.
(This week, that includes the Chiefs and Lions, too.)
➤Over the last decade, there is no harder road trip than playing at Green Bay on the second leg of the trip. Teams that follow up a road game with second road game in Lambeau are 7-16-1 ATS, and failed to cover the spread by 3 PPG. Those teams are 3-7 ATS since 2020.
➤The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a dip in his numbers when favored, but he’s actually 33-28 ATS as a favorite with the Packers. The issue has been away from home, where he's gone 9-13 ATS as a favorite.
➤One issue for Love so far this season has been his completion percentage; it’s sitting at 58.9%, up from 56.1% last week but still the lowest mark of all QBs with at least his number of pass attempts (146). Love also has a -4 CPOE (completion percentage over expected), second-worst in the NFL.
Over the last five years, Love owns the third- (2023) and eighth-lowest (2024) completion percentage marks through six games for anyone with at least 140 pass attempts.
The good part? Love’s long passing game. Last season he was 38-of-90 (42%) on passes 20 yards downfield, the most completions in football and middle of NFL in percentage. This season, he’s 9-of-21 on those throws with seventh-most completions in four games.
➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-15 ATS (65%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – fifth-best mark of any head coach since 2003.
Belichick, John Harbaugh, Payton, Tomlin, LaFleur.
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➤Mike McDaniel is 20-21 ATS in his pro coaching career. He’s 17-16 ATS with Tua Tagovailoa and 3-5 ATS with Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in eight starts.
In the eight games without Tua Tagovailoa, they are scoring 21 or less in seven of the eight games. McDaniel is 20-13 SU in games Tua Tagovailoa starts. He is 2-6 SU in games he doesn’t.
➤Forty QBs have had at least 40 plays this season, Dolphins QBs rank 39th (Skylar), 34th (Huntley) and 27th (Tua) in EPA/play. Skyler is 40th, last in success rate, Huntley is 38th, while Tua is 17th.
➤No matter who starts for the Dolphins, it won’t be Tagovailoa until at least Week 8 after he was placed on IR and Miami will start a backup QB until then.
This will be the 28th game of the last decade where the Dolphins franchise has to turn to a backup QB now with Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion.
Dolphins backup QBs:Skylar Thompson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Josh Rosen, Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore and Tyler Huntley.
They are 8-19 SU, 11-16 ATS, going 4-12 SU since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to before the bye and their win vs. New England, the Dolphins hadn’t won a road game SU with a backup QB since Matt Moore in 2016 – 12 consecutive SU losses.
➤This is the third time Mike McDaniel will coach a game off of a bye week. The Dolphins are 2-0 SU, but 1-1 ATS, due to being 14-point favorites in both of those games. His defense allowed 28 points in both contests combined.
When McDaniel has coached a team on extended rest, with the Dolphins favored by a touchdown or less, or listed as an underdog, Miami is 0-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 18.5 PPG.
➤Tyler Huntley has started just three games in his career on extended rest, his teams are 1-2 SU/ATS, but he’s scored only 41 total pts in the three games.
➤The Dolphins are 0-5 against the first half spread this season – one of two teams without an ATS win in the first half this year along with the Eagles. Dating back to last year, they have lost six straight first halves ATS.
Miami has been outscored by six or more points in five of six first halves. If Miami finishes below .500 1H ATS this season, it would be the first time since 2017.
Miami is also 0-5 against the first quarter spread this year — also joining the Philly as teams without a 1Q ATS win.
➤The Colts have started the season with each of their games decided by one score (eight points or less) through six games. Their record is 3-3 SU and their point differential for the season is zero.
Teams to start season with six straight one-score games last five years:
2024 Colts
2023 Vikings
2022 Giants
2020 Bears
Dating back to 2000 and 1990, any team with six straight one-score games are 54% SU and 53% ATS in their next game.
➤Joe Flacco’s completion percentage is over 15 percentage points higher than Anthony Richardson this season with 31 more pass attempts. Richardson has three touchdowns and six interceptions, while Flacco has seven touchdowns and just one interception this season.
One thing Flacco and Richardson have in common is they are chucking it down field. Richardson’s 12.7 average depth of target is the highest mark in the NFL by almost three full yards. Flacco’s aDOT is 8.9, fifth in the NFL.
Flacco ranka fourth in EPA/play this season behind Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. His completion percentage above expected is ninth-best of any QB, while Richardson dead-last in that category.
➤In terms of completion percentage, Richardson is on a bad path.
Among players with 150-plus pass attempts in their first two seasons in the NFL, here are the lowest completion percentages over last decade:
Bryce Petty: 53%
DeShone Kizer: 53%
David Blough: 54%
Josh Rosen: 55%
Zach Wilson: 55%
Anthony Richardson: 55%
➤If Richardson starts, this could be his biggest line as a favorite in his early pro career. He closed -3 against Packers earlier this season and lost 16-10 in Lambeau.
➤The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through six weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the first quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over.
In the last 20 years, the Vikings were the third team to start 4-0 SU/ATS, including 4-0 1H ATS with the 2008 Titans and the 2007 Patriots.
The 2008 Titans started 7-0 SU/ATS, but lost their fifth game 1H ATS.
The 2007 Patriots started 8-0 SU/ATS & 8-0 1H SU/ATS
The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a year 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
The 2009 Broncos and 1995 Rams finished the season a combined 7-17 SU, both missing the playoffs. While the 1999 Rams went 9-3 the rest of the way and won the Super Bowl.
➤The Vikings defense has been stingy under Brian Flores to start the season. They are first in EPA/play, first in total QB pressures (16 more than any other team), tied for third in sacks in just five games played.
Since 2018, Minnesota’s 83 pressures through five games is the second-most for any team behind the 2020 Steelers (95 pressures).
➤The undefeated Vikings are off a bye to face the Lions this week. Undefeated teams on 13-plus days rest are 27-15 ATS since 2003.
➤What an amazing turnaround for Sam Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season:
21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 5-0 SU/ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog. Darnold has started 3-0 SU/ATS one other time, back in 2021 with the Panthers. He finished 1-5 ATS down the stretch that year.
➤Darnold has closed above a 1-point favorite against a team with a winning record twice in his career: Last season's regular season finale for the 49ers against Carson Wentz and the Rams (a 21-20 loss as a 5.5-pt favorite), and in 2018 against Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins (a 20-12 loss as a 3-point favorite).
➤So far this season, Vikings are 1-0 SU vs. NFC North, beating the Packers. In Darnold’s career, he is 7-14 SU vs. division opponents. He’s never won more than two games in a season vs. division foes.
➤The Lions face their first NFC North opponent of the 2024 season this week.
Both Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have had success vs. divisional opponents in their careers.
Campbell: 14-8 ATS (fourth-best since he joined DET)
Goff: 26-16-1 ATS – including 13-5 ATS with Lions (second-best since he joined DET)
➤In Goff’s career, he is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. the Vikings – his second-most profitable opponent ATS.
➤When Goff has played the Vikings as QB of Detroit, he is 6-0 ATS, the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.
➤Jared Goff has been playing out of his mind…
QBs with 150+ passer rating in back-to-back starts:
Jared Goff, last two starts
Drew Brees, 2018
➤Here are the longest active streaks with at least one TD scored entering Week 7:
Derrick Henry, 7
David Montgomery, 6
Kyren Williams, 5
The Lions record is Billy Sims with nine consecutive games with a TD back in 1980-81.
➤The Lions seem cover regardless of the circumstance recently, but as underdogs it hasn’t been different. Under Goff and Campbell, the Lions are 21-9 ATS as 'dogs, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the spot.
➤The Lions have scored 89 points over their last two games — their most points in any two-game span since 1962.
➤The Lions have most likely lost Aidan Hutchinson for the rest of the 2024 season.
Entering Week 7, Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks with 7.5. That is the most sacks through five games for a Lions player since William Gay in 1983.
From Austin Gayle: Aidan Hutchinson recorded 45 pressures in five games, putting him on pace for a ridiculous 153 pressures over a 17-game season.
JJ Watt holds the PFF era (2006-24) record with 119 pressures in a year.
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➤The Giants beat the Eagles by 17 in their last meeting.
Under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are 20-9 SU, 18-11 ATS when looking for revenge after a loss to a team in their previous matchup, including 13-6 ATS over the last three seasons since 2022.
➤The Giants scored just seven points at home against the Bengals in Week 6. Since 2019, teams coming off a game in which they scored 7 points or fewer at home are 37-27-2 against the first half spread in their next game.
➤The Eagles are 0-5 against the first half spread this season joining the Dolphins as the only two teams without an ATS win in the first half this season.
Philly is also 0-5 against 1Q spread this year — also joining the Dolphins as teams without a 1Q ATS win.
In fact, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL to not score a point in the 1Q this season.
➤In his career, Jalen Hurts is 7-15-1 ATS as a favorite away from home. In the last 20 years, he's the fourth-least profitable QB as a favorite away from home.
Hurts is 1-5-1 ATS in his last six starts in this spot.
➤The Bengals and Giants are facing divisional opponents this week on normal rest, coming off a night game in Week 6. The assumption is there may be a letdown, but the opposite has been true. Since 2019, those teams are 63-42 SU (60%) and 57-45-3 ATS (56%).
➤In 1 p.m. ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-18-1 SU, 22-16 ATS. Outside of the 1 p.m. ET window, he is 6-23 SU, 13-16 ATS. The 6-23 SU mark ranks 108th of 110 QBs in ML profitability since he was drafted.
➤Jones has been better off losses vs. wins in his career.
23-15 ATS after a SU loss
11-12 ATS after a SU win
➤The birds come back down to earth.
Historically, the Eagles have been hard to beat at home off of a bye. They are now 18-3 SU at home off a bye since 2000 – with their only losses to Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady.
In the week following that post-bye week game, they are 16-23-1 ATS in the Wild Card era, but 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni.
➤Road unders with Jalen Hurts have been the way lately. Even after the Eagles-Bucs game went over two weeks ago, Hurts is 19-11 to the under on the road in his career, including 9-3 since the start of last season – best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤The Rams are coming off a bye this week to face the Raiders at home.
In Stafford’s career, he is 81-100-6 ATS on 12 days rest or less. On the full bye, he is actually above .500 ATS at 9-7.
On any extended rest, Stafford is 25-21-1 ATS in his career. Stafford is 49-69-5 ATS on normal seven days rest and 16-17 ATS on short rest.
Stafford’s issue has been with the Rams on extended rest, where he is 4-8-1 ATS – since 2021, his 4-8-1 ATS mark is the worst of 75 QBs.
➤Dating back to the Rams-Bengals Super Bowl in 2022, Sean McVay is 0-7-1 ATS on extended rest as coach of the Rams. He was 12-8-2 ATS in that spot previous to this stretch.
McVay was 8-6-2 ATS on extended rest with Goff and 4-9-1 ATS with Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
➤Rams are the first team since 2022 to have a win percentage of 20% or less and be listed as favorites of 6 points or more after September.
Since 2003, when two teams with a win percentage of 33% or less play, and one team is favored by 6 points or more, they are just 62-83-1 ATS (43%).
➤Raiders are heading one direction, while the Rams are off rest and a bye. So take L.A.? Not so fast.
Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen five teams off back-to-back losses of at least 14 points, face a team off a bye. Those teams are 5-0 ATS in that game.
➤To be fair, the Rams haven’t exactly looked fantastic. They entered the bye losing two straight and are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
Teams off back-to-back losses, followed by a bye week are 16-10 SU and 18-8-1 ATS since 2020.
➤The combo of Stafford and McVay are just 8-9-2 ATS after a SU loss, but that includes 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS at home and 2-7 SU, 2-5-2 ATS on the road.
➤McVay has enjoyed his games against divisional opponents, going 28-18-1 ATS in his career. Compared to 39-42-3 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 5-14 SU as underdogs.
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➤It isn’t often we see Washington as this big of a favorite in any game.
Last season, they were favorites of 7 points or more twice – both games behind QB Sam Howell. Washington went 0-2 ATS in those games.
Washington hasn’t closed -8 or higher since 2017 vs. 49ers – a game started by Kirk Cousins for Washington against Brian Hoyer.
Over the last 30 years, Washington is 13-40 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more, worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤Diontae Johnson is somehow now a TD machine. He’s scored in three of his last four games with the Panthers, including in eight of his last 13 games overall. Johnson had a regular season stretch of 21 games without a TD between 2021-23.
➤The upgrade from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton is very simple.
At least now Carolina is staying in the game early on. Under Bryce Young, the Panthers were 5-13 1H ATS, losing ATS in the 1H in his last 10 starts with Carolina, scoring 28 total points in the first half of all 10 games.
Under Dalton, Carolina has scored 17, 7, 14, 21 and 13 first half points.
➤The defense really hasn’t helped Carolina recently. The Panthers have scored 20 points or more seven times since the start of last season, they are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in those games – both marks worst in the NFL in that span – with all seven games going over the total.
➤Washington’s offense has been absurd:
- 61.8% of drives ending in an offensive score, best in NFL
- 41.1 net yards per drive, third-best in the NFL behind just the 49ers and Ravens
- 48.6% conversion percentage on third down, second-best in the NFL, and 9-9 on fourth down
➤Entering last week, the Commanders averaged 31 PPG, the highest mark in the NFL. Now that mark is down to 29.7 after losing to the Ravens.
Since 2018 in Sept. and Oct., teams averaging 28+ PPG, off a loss are just 30-49-1 ATS (38%), failing to cover the spread by 2.8 PPG.
➤The Chiefs are also 5-0 SU. In the last 20 years, they are the fifth team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
- 2024 Chiefs 5-0 SU
- 2019 Patriots 8-0 SU
- 2015 Patriots 10-0 SU
- 2011 Packers 13-0 SU
- 2007 Colts 7-0 SU
The Chiefs joined the 1990 49ers as the only teams in NFL history to start 5-0 after winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
➤Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 straight up as an underdog (11-1-1 ATS).
That is the best straight-up mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts.
Mahomes is 24-10 SU, 25-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog.
Mahomes' numbers as an underdog
- 70.8% completion
- 3,922 passing yds
- 301.7 ypg
- 38 TDs
- 11 INTs
➤This would be the second time in Mahomes’ career and first since 2017 he’s been listed as an underdog vs. a team .500 SU or worse with SF 3-3 SU this season.
➤Mahomes is a road warrior.
In his career, he is 46-12 SU on the road or neutral site and 48-13 SU at home – losing one more home game vs. road/neutral. He’s 18-5 SU road/neutral when the line is -3 or less, or he is a 'dog.
Over the last three seasons, he’s 16-2 SU in road/neutral games after beating that opponent in their previous meeting. Mahomes has played 22 games in MST or PST, he is 19-3 SU in those games
➤Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game. Mahomes is 28-7 SU, 18-16-1 ATS on extended rest (eight or more days). Reid is 62-27 SU (70%) and 50-38-1 ATS (57%) on extended rest dating back to 2003, including 19-12-1 ATS on the road and 16-9-1 ATS as underdogs.
When rest comes early for Reid, he does great.
Sept-Oct: 23-9 ATS
Nov on: 27-29-1 ATS
On extended rest (eight or more days), Reid and the Chiefs are 25-4 SU since 2019. The four QBs who beat them since 2019: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff.
➤Mahomes is 25-6 SU, 17-13-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career. As underdogs vs. NFC, Mahomes 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. His only loss came 54-51 to the Rams in 2018.
➤The 49ers were -3.5 in Seattle all week before TNF – but ended up closing -4.
Purdy is 18-15 ATS in his NFL career. When favored by 4 points or more, he’s 10-13 ATS. When he’s favored by 3.5 points or less or an underdog, Purdy is 8-2 ATS.
➤Last week, the 49ers were on short rest playing on the road on TNF against the Seahawks. Brock Purdy improved to 6-2 SU/ATS on short rest in his career.
This week, Purdy will play his 12th game on extended rest, where he is 5-6 ATS. In games with a spread of 4 points or less on extra rest, Purdy is 3-1 SU, with his only loss coming in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
➤Purdy is 7-4 ATS vs. NFC West opponents and just 11-11 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
➤Prior to last week vs. Seahawks, the 49ers had lost six consecutive games ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, going 2-4 SU in those games. Dating back to last season, SF has lost four straight home games ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
Overall, tight spread games vs. good teams has been a good spot for Kyle Shanahan. He is 20-9 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU where the spread is 4 points or less in the game – that is the fourth-best mark of 137 coaches since 2003 behind John Harbaugh, Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin.
➤On extended prep, Kyle Shanahan is only 18-15 SU in his coaching career, losing a $100 bettor $558 on $100 bet – making him the fourth-least profitable coach since he was hired.
His 15 losses are three more than any head coach in the NFL during that span.
➤The 49ers are now 4-5 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play. His teams (Panthers, Niners) are 21-31 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
In games McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers have played three games without Deebo Samuel in the lineup and they are 0-3 SU, scoring exactly 17 points in two games last season and 24 points in Week 3 vs. Rams.
Overall, the Niners have played 18 games without Deebo in his career and they are 8-10 SU and here is how they’ve performed based on how many touches (Rec + Rush Att) he gets:
38-13 SU – 7 touches or more
19-13 – 6 touches or less
7-6 – 3 touches or less
➤The undefeated Chiefs are off a bye to face the 49ers this week. Undefeated teams on 13 or more days rest are 27-15 ATS since 2003.
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➤Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers have faced each other three times in their careers.
Rodgers is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against Tomlin with all the games coming between the Steelers and Packers.
If Rodgers covers vs. Tomlin this week, he would be the only QB with a 4-0 ATS record against the Steelers head coach.
➤The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-31 SU playing at night in prime time since 2019.
We still have four night games involving the Jets and Giants left this season.
➤Teams after facing the Raiders in Las Vegas – without a bye week directly after – are 11-22-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS this season.
➤Last week the Steelers won the turnover battle 3-0 vs. Raiders and came away with the win. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-1 SU and 22-2 ATS with a +3 TO margin.
➤The Steelers are 24-16-1 ATS since Ben Roethlisberger's departure at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the third-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions and Giants.
Here are the four QBs Pittsburgh has used in that span: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, and Justin Fields.
The Steelers under Tomlin without Roethlisberger are 44-29-3 ATS, covering by 1.7 PPG, 78% in 6-point teasers
➤With the QB battle reignited in Pittsburgh for Week 7, let’s compare Russell Wilson to Justin Fields during the three seasons where their starts are comparable.
Wilson: 11-19 SU, 11-18-1 ATS. 37th of 75 QBs in EPA/play, 48th in success rate, 8.3 aDOT
Fields: 12-22 SU, 15-18-1 ATS. 35th of 75 QBs in EPA/play, 45th in success rate, 7.9 aDOT
➤If Wilson gets the start, he started his career 24-7-3 ATS in night games with the Seahawks, between 2012-18. Since then, he is 7-16 ATS in night games.
The 24-7-3 ATS mark was best in the NFL.
The 7-16 ATS mark is second-worst of 88 QBs, ahead of only Tom Brady.
➤No matter the scenario, Wilson has been a winner as a home underdog in his career. He is 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS as a home dog in his career. He has covered four straight as a home dog.
➤The Jets have scored the same amount of points through Week 6 in 2024 as in 2023, 113 in both seasons with Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers under center.
Let’s compare New York through six games last two seasons.
2024: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 10 TD, 5 INT, 5.8 Y/A, 4.87 yds/play, 3.9 yds/rush att
2023: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4 TD, 5 INT, 5.2 Y/A, 4.92 yds/play, 5.2 yds/rush att
➤Aaron Rodgers has historically been one of the greats at night in primetime. He is 46-33-2 ATS in his career at night, second-most profitable QB since 2003 behind just Peyton Manning. An ATS loss this week and he will fall to third behind Philip Rivers.
Including the Jets' win in Week 1 last season when Rodgers was injured after four plays, he is just 3-5 ATS in his last eight night games.
Rodgers has lost two straight night games ATS on the road – he hasn’t lost three straight since ATS on the road at night since 2014-15.
➤Dating back to 2012, the Jets are an unbelievable 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS in the game directly after facing the Bills.
➤Two defensive teams in a night game? Go under, right?
Since 2003, when two teams, both allowing 18 PPG or less, meet at night, the over is 44-31-1, going over the total by over 3 PPG – including 14-6 to the over since 2016.
➤Lamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 23 times in his career, he is 22-1 SU (11-11-1 ATS) in those games – with his only loss coming to the Giants back in 2022.
When Jackson faces an NFC team in any game outside the 1 p.m. ET Sunday window, he’s 8-0 SU, including 6-0 SU on extended rest when he faces an NFC team.
➤Todd Bowles faced Jackson once prior to this matchup in 2022 as coach of the Bucs. Jackson won 27-22 in Tampa Bay.
In Jackson’s 89 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 43 times – he is 36-7 SU (85.4%), 23-20 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (second time or later), he is 27-19 SU and 25-20-1 ATS.
The second matchup hasn’t always been great for opposing coaches either. Since start of last season, coaches in their second game against Jackson are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS.
➤Over the past four seasons, Jackson is 7-1 ATS as a dog, but 18-21-1 ATS as a favorite, including 7-18-1 ATS when favored by more than three points.
As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Jackson is 18-4 ATS in that span and 25-5 ATS in his career in the regular season.
When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 21-31-1 ATS in the regular season.
➤The Ravens rush defense has been the best in the NFL this season.
Baltimore is allowing 3.03 yds per rush, fewest in the NFL and they are fourth in rush defense EPA/play and first in rush success rate.
Opposing running backs are 3-9 to their rushing yards over this season against this Ravens rush defense.
In the last decade, Baltimore’s 3.03 yds/rush allowed through six games is the third-fewest for any team, behind just the 2019 and 2020 Bucs.
➤They run the ball on offense well, too. The Ravens were the first NFL team in league history to out-rush opponents by 100 or more yards in each of the first four games of the season. They have now done it through six games.
➤Lamar Jackson is 54-33-2 against the first half spread in his career, making him the best quarterback against the spread in the first in the last 20 years (262 QBs).
2024: 3-3 1H ATS
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
Away from home, Jackson is 30-12-1 against the first half spread in his career, but just 1-2 1H ATS this season.
➤Last week, the Buccaneers vs. Saints over/under closed at 42.5. New Orleans led 27-24 at the half – for 51 total points. That was just the third game since 2010 to have 50 or more combined points at the half with a full game total below 43.
Teams that have gone over the total of their previous game by halftime and then return home for their next game are 90-76-6 to the under the following week.
➤The Bucs scored 51 points by themselves last week against the Saints.
In the last decade, only two teams have scored at least 50 points and been listed as a home underdog the next week – both teams lost SU and ATS.
Teams after scoring 40-plus points are just 65-87-1 ATS (43%) since 2019 in their next game – that includes the Bucs, Lions and Texans this week.
➤The line has moved from +5 for the Bucs on the lookahead to about +3/+3.5.
In Baker Mayfield's career, he 19-32-1 ATS when the line is moving in his direction – basically making the line worse on the closing number – of 240 QBs since 2003, Baker is the least profitable QB ATS in that spot.
➤Sometimes a change in QB is all you need.
Bowles is 20-44 SU (31%) as an underdog in his coaching career. He’s 8-8 SU as a dog with Mayfield at QB and 12-36 SU (25%) without him.
➤Mayfield has made 12 starts at home for the Bucs. The under is 8-4 in those games, going under the total by 3.2 PPG.
In those 12 starts, the O/U for the game has never even been above 44. This week, it’s close to 48 vs. Ravens.
➤In the regular season, Mayfield has played on Monday Night Football six times and he is 1-5 SU/ATS (0-4 SU/ATS when listed as the underdog) with his only win coming in his first MNF start in 2019, where he faced the Jets with Trevor Siemien and Luke Falk at QB.
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➤Justin Herbert has made 68 career starts in the NFL. He is 33-35 SU and 35-31-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 points or fewer, he is 28-9 SU, 26-9-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 points, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 16-9 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 19-22-2 ATS
➤In the regular season, Herbert is 6-1 ATS on the road in night games. With a cover on MNF this week, Herbert would become the third-most profitable QB on the road at night since 2003 behind just Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Herbert is 3-0 ATS on the road on MNF in his career.
When Herbert’s listed as a favorite on MNF, he’s 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS).
➤Jim Harbaugh has loved MNF in his NFL career. He’s 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, all coming with the 49ers.
In the Wild Card era, he has the most wins without a SU loss for a head coach on MNF.
The Harbaugh brothers are 15-4 SU combined in their last 19 total MNF games dating back to 2011.
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 24-11 in Herbert’s 35 regular season starts – the most profitable QB to the under in that span.
Prior to last week’s game vs. Broncos, Herbert’s previous eight starts went under the total, including going under in seven of his last eight road starts.
➤Herbert is 20-43-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford.
Herbert is 9-29-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,080 — third-worst in NFL since 2005).
In night games, Herbert is 4-12-1 2H ATS and when he’s leading at the half of a night game, he’s 2-10-1 2H ATS
Herbert Second-Half ATS Career
2024: 2-3 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤Overall in his NFL career, Jim Harbaugh is 25-10 SU as a coach early season in September and October games. When he’s a favorite early year, he’s 21-5 SU.
➤Herbert is 18-23-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of four points or less, that includes a mark of 13-20-1 ATS in games with spread of three or less.
That 13-20-1 ATS mark is ranked 237th of 243 QBs last 20 years.
➤The Chargers were 3-6 ATS at home last season, but a positive 1-0-1 ATS this year. Historically, the Chargers have been bad bets at home. They are 31-48-3 ATS at home over the last decade, the worst ATS mark in the NFL.
➤Over the last decade, there is no harder road trip than playing at Green Bay on the second leg of the trip. Teams that follow up a road game with second road game in Lambeau are 7-16-1 ATS, and failed to cover the spread by 3 PPG. Those teams are 3-7 ATS since 2020.
Teams playing off the road in Lambeau are 96-70-3 ATS (58%) since 2003 – the second-best previous road spot in the NFL, behind only the Bears. Teams in this spot are 2-0 ATS this year and 10-6 ATS since 2022.
➤Kyler Murray road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 23-11 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked third of 275 QBs since 2005 in road unders.
At home, Murray is just the opposite. 22-15 to the over in his career. Going over the total in eight of his last 11 home starts.
➤Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 27-17-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's the second-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind only Jared Goff.
➤Murray has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST or CST, he is 17-7 ATS — covering the spread by 5 PPG — and only 20-26-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
➤At night in primetime, Murray is just 3-7 SU in his career, losing six of his last seven starts.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Everyone loves a warm trip to Florida. Teams traveling to face any of the teams in Florida early in the season have historically had success after playing at home the previous week.
Matches: BAL
System: In the NFL, we call this a business trip. Teams off a SU loss, playing on the road the next week.
Matches: DEN, NYJ, CAR, LV, TEN, SEA
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System: This system looks to face really hot covering teams against opponents with a relatively poor win percentage.
Matches: BUF, WAS
System: This one is simple. We are looking at road underdogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season — simply being undervalued.
Matches: CAR, LV, TEN, SEA
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System: Be cautious around big line moves between the lookahead line and the closing line.
Matches: Check updated lines on Action Network
System: This system works off of Pythagorean +/- and underdogs. Pythagorean +/- measures how much a team is overperforming or underperforming as compared to their pythagorean win-loss record.
Matches: CLE, NE, ARI
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