Week 7 NFL Odds
All odds as of 7:35 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -104 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
Sam Farley: Last week, Alec Pierce hauled in his first touchdown in the NFL. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has impressed both Colts fans and QB Matt Ryan, who has praised the 2022 second-round pick.
Pierce has incredible physical traits and has been growing into the offense. Over his past four games, he's put up 271 yards on 18 catches (27 targets). Although the Colts will lean on Taylor more now that he's returned to fitness, they won't forget about Pierce, who is second among rookies in receiving yards per game behind only New Orleans' Chris Olave.
Pierce is a contested-catch specialist and looks like he could at least become the 1B to Pittman's 1A.
His receiving yards total sits at 43.5, a number he's beaten in each of the past four weeks. It's a line I'd take the over on all the way up to 46.5. The +450 on him to score isn't bad value either.
Pick: Alec Pierce Over 43.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 46.5
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -168 |
Kody Malstrom: With the Giants being one of the luckier units in the league, they still sit at 5-1 with one of the best records in football. Sometimes you just need to tip your cap to the victors, and other times you need to fade them as the regression monster is looming.
Luck can only take you so far until efficiency kicks in and you are thoroughly outmatched. While the wins are nice, they are hardly deserved as the Giants have serious issues on both ends.
Lawrence and company are poised for a much-needed bounce back as the Giants field a poor defense, ranked well below average in both Def Pass and Rush DVOA. This serves as a get right game for the Jags ground game, one that Robinson and Etienne should exploit for success.
The jags defense will also be pissed off from last week's meltdown, going against a much simpler offensive scheme that revolves around Barkley's production in the backfield.
Take the Jags at no higher than -3 in what will be a redemption spot for Lawrence and company with the Giants' luck due to run out.
Pick: Jags -2.5 | Bet to -3
Phillip Kall:I think it is pretty clear which way I’m leaning in this one. Of the Panthers' 203 total yards against the Rams, 158 came from CMC. Their passing game has been so stifled that P.J. Walker averaged 0.1 air yards per attempt last week per Next Gen Stats. Even worse, his average completed air yards per attempt was -2.8. Now, that inept offense takes on one of the league’s best defenses. This should be complete domination by the Buccaneers.
On the other side of the ball, even if you don’t trust the Bucs’ offense, they should have so many opportunities eventually they will get it right. Last week against Carolina, we saw the Rams have one drive that went more than 10 yards in their first six drives. Eventually, they broke out, though, and scored 24 points. Besides, you may only need 20 points for them to cover, even with this absurd spread.
I’m going to double down on this one and take both Bucs against the spread and the under. One week is simply not enough time for a team to figure out how it is replacing the centerpiece of its offense.
Quickslip: Buccaneers -13 | Bet to -13.5
Pick: Under 39 | Bet to 38.5
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Blake Krass: The Packers are not just in a funk. Overall, their roster isn't all that great, and there is a clear lack of coordination between the quarterback, head coach, and skill position players.
With the Packers looking to emphasize the run and the Commanders also emphasizing the run against a bad Packers run defense, points should be at a premium in this matchup, giving even more value to the underdog Commanders.
Heinicke could inject a jolt of life into this Commanders' offense with his style of play that is so different from Carson Wentz. Defensively, Washington is built to withstand the Packers' rushing attack. I think this game comes down to the wire, and the Packers could possibly drop their third straight game as favorites.
Pick: Commanders +5 | Bet to Commanders +3.5
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| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -303 |
Kody Malstrom: While it will be a welcome sight to have Prescott back, rust could play a major factor so expectations should be tempered.
The Cowboys will need to maximize every chance they get on offense because the Lions, when healthy, can score in a flash.
Whether it will be due to conservative calls while Prescott settles back in or uncharacteristically bad reads, Dallas will be susceptible to stalling out on offense, which could help the Lions keep the game close.
The Cowboys defense is elite, but struggles to limit the run at times and could be in for a world of hurt should Swift suit up.
Take the Lions at no lower than +7 in what will be a potential barn burner.
Quickslip: Lions +7 | Play to +7
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Cody Goggin:These two teams this season have been in a similar tier and their records reflect this. The mismatch of the Atlanta rushing game against this Cincinnati defense will be the one to watch as it is the matchup that I think gives Atlanta a chance to keep this game close and possibly even come out of Paycor Stadium with a victory.
A line of 6.5 is too high for a game against similarly-rated teams. My numbers would have the Bengals as 4- to 4.5-point favorites, so I will take the Falcons at 6 or higher to cover this spread.
Quickslip: Falcons +6.5 | Bet to +6
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -106 | 45.5 -118o / -104u | +245 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -114 | 45.5 -118o / -104u | -300 |
Cody Goggin:If the Baltimore offensive line is at full strength then they should be able to have a successful day running the ball against a Browns defense that is very susceptible to allowing big plays. With the Dobbins injury, there currently aren’t any other Ravens that have rushing props available, but I would like those as well.
The Ravens are currently 6.5-point favorites in this game, which may lend itself to a positive game script that leans even more towards the run for the Ravens. Lamar should be able to get over 56.5 rushing yards with relative ease and could even hit the over in just one long play.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 56.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 64.5
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -126 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +108 |
Phillip Kall: In a game that pits two teams that are near mirrors of each other, a tight spread makes sense. This will be a game that comes down to which offense makes more plays.
We are putting a backup quarterback and the RB duo of Melvin Gordon (maybe) and Latavius Murray against Zack Wilson and Breece Hall. I think it is pretty clear which side to take.
Trust the Jets defense and Hall to take care of business.
Pick: Jets -1.5 (to -3.5) |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -114 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | +250 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -106 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | -310 |
Dylan Wilkerson:In his last two games, we have seen an increase in Jacobs' usage and production. In his last two games, we have seen Jacobs get over 20 carries each, and average 149 rush yards.
These performances came against great defenses such as the Chiefs and Broncos.
I expect the Raiders to expose the Texans' run defense, leading to a big game from the Raiders' RB1.
Quickslip: Josh Jacobs Over 84.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 89.5
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -225 |
John LanFranca:Geno Smith is playing at a high level, and the sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted.
Smith is 16-10-2 in his career against the spread as an underdog and more importantly, 8-2 over his past 10 games catching points. In general, underdogs on the road in the month of October seem to be quite undervalued. Over the past five years, underdogs of more than three points are 70-46-2 (60.3%) against the spread in October, a 15.8% return on investment.
The Chargers are not an explosive offense and should not be favored by 5+ points. Their only win of the season greater than five points came against the Texans in a game in which they won the turnover battle and still had to score a touchdown with 2:34 left in the game to win by 10. The Texans just happened to also put up their highest offensive yardage total of the season (346 yards) in that contest.
I expect Seattle’s highly efficient offense and improved defense to win the first down battle on both sides of the football. Sprinkle some on the moneyline if you so choose — this will be a close game — but I will gladly take the points with the Seahawks.
QuickSlip: Seahawks +5 | Play to 4.5
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 48.5 -114o / -106u | -122 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 48.5 -114o / -106u | +104 |
Anthony Dabbundo: The lookahead line had the Chiefs as a 1.5-point favorite and while that line was as high as three early in the week, it moved back toward the 49ers after the McCaffrey trade and the positive injury news. The line seems about right to me at the current number with no value on either side.
The Chiefs however do rank 25th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and that will enable the 49ers to stay ahead of the sticks, use the clock and keep Mahomes off the field. I still have question marks about the Niners passing game, but the more effective they are running, the more the clock will be draining.
The Niners rank 27th in the league in situation neutral pace and the result of that is fewer possessions and more long drives. Kansas City plays on the faster side, but they do play considerably slower in the second half (16th) than first (9th)
In the world of totals, 49 is a key number, so I wouldn’t play it any lower than the current market offering. But with San Francisco’s ability to run the ball on offense and get pressure on Mahomes defensively, it has the recipe for a lower scoring affair on Sunday in Santa Clara.
