Key Numbers
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos: The Chiefs are stumbling and bumbling and by God, the betting market is reacting.
A couple weeks ago, Kansas City was undefeated and the Broncos were winless. I reckon most folks would've guessed this line was K.C. -7 rather than K.C. -3, but here we are.
It's quite the Pros vs. Joes affair, but the sharps have forced this line down from the 4-5 point region down to the most important number in NFL betting.
Saints at Bears (-3): We have very similar line movement in Chicago, but everything else about this game is different.
After opening as a 4-point road dog, the public has pounded the Saints down to +3 against da Bears, who will likely be led by Chase Daniel once again.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Bears just lost to the Raiders over in London, and quite frankly, Teddy Bridgewater's Saints look pretty darn good.
They've won all four of Bridgewater's starts — two high scoring games, two low scoring games — and remain one of the league's best teams despite missing Drew Brees.
With that in mind, pro bettors have not felt the need to back the Bears up to this point. It's possible that there is some buyback, but I would also expect any +3.5s that pop up will be gone in a jiffy.
Eagles at Cowboys (-3): The battle of the mediocre 3-3 NFC East teams! Which team will disappoint more on Sunday night?
Some books have held steady on Dallas -3 all week, while other have tested -2.5 (one book lasted five minutes).
Like our first two games, the road team is getting right around 70% of the spread bets. If you're undecided, might as well take the points, right? The Philly moneyline is also getting slammed and is currently up over 90% of tickets and cash.
While the other two games could limbo between the 3/3.5 line, this one could bounce down to 2.5 a few more times before Sunday.
Popular Sides
49ers (84%) at Redskins: The Niners are undefeated. The Redskins have one win and it was against the Dolphins. Did you expect San Francisco to see anything less than this?
The Skins have been getting sharp action, particularly at +10, but it's been just enough to essentially hold the line steady. Some books have the line at 9.5, others at 10, but no books have gone through 10 up to 10.5.
Just too many points to give a team at home, even if that team is the Redskins.
Jaguars (79%) at Bengals: With two straight losses, the last being a 13-6 loss to the Saints with no touchdowns scored, Gardner Minshew-Mania has kind of settled down … or at least I thought it did. In the betting market, it's alive and well!
Nearly 80% of bettors are backing Jacksonville against the Bengals, who quietly still have no wins. The line has been bouncing around between Jacksonville -3 and -4, with both sides seeing sharp action.
It's not going to be the most-watched nor most-bet-on game of the week, but it'll likely still be offering some contrarian value by week's end.
Biggest Movers
Vikings-Lions Total: One would expect this game to be more of a defensive divisional showdown, but sharp bettors have been hitting the over since the lines opened.
Minnesota's recent offensive showings (28 and 38 points in past two weeks) are likely one reason why this total has gone from 44 to 45.5/46 since opening. We've tracked three bet signals on the over compared to zero on the under.
Raiders (+5.5) at Packers: Despite Packers' controversial win on Monday, which pushed their record to 5-1, action on Oakland has the line moving in their favor.
The Raiders are coming off two impressive wins of their own, one in Indy and one in London against the Bears, and are getting the majority of bets and dollars to my surprise.
After opening at +6.5/+7, Oakland is down to +5.5 at some spots and even +5 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. I'd expect some buy-back to come in on Green Bay now that they're down below -6, but I've been wrong before.
