Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 7 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 7 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Bills
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 91.1%
2. 49ers
Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 84.1%
3. Patriots
Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
4. Packers
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 75.7%
5. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-6. Chiefs
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-6. Rams
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-6. Bears
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-9. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-9. Jaguars
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-9. Giants
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-12. Colts
Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
T-12. Titans
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
14. Vikings
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
15. Lions
Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
T-16. Chargers
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
T-16. Texans
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
T-18. Cardinals
Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-18. Eagles
Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-18. Bengals
Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-21. Broncos
Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-21. Falcons
Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-21. Saints
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
24. Ravens
Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
25. Raiders
Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 24.3%
26. Jets
Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
27. Redskins
Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 15.9%
28. Dolphins
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 8.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Packers
Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. OAK
T-2. 49ers
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ WAS
T-2. Bengals
Spread: +4
Opponent: vs. JAX
T-2. Dolphins
Spread: +17
Opponent: @ BUF
T-5. Patriots
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ NYJ
T-5. Colts
Spread: PK
Opponent: vs. HOU
T-5. Lions
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. MIN
T-5. Chargers
Spread: +2
Opponent: @ TEN
T-9. Seahawks
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. BAL
T-9. Rams
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ ATL
T-9. Cardinals
Spread: +3
Opponent: @ NYG
T-9. Eagles
Spread: +3
Opponent: @ DAL
T-9. Broncos
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. KC
T-9. Saints
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: @ CHI
T-15. Chiefs
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DEN
T-15. Bears
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. NO
T-15. Cowboys
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. PHI
T-15. Giants
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. ARI
T-15. Falcons
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-15. Ravens
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: @ SEA
T-21. Titans
Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. LAC
T-21. Vikings
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ DET
T-21. Texans
Spread: PK
Opponent: @ IND
T-21. Jets
Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. NE
T-25. Bills
Spread: -17
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-25. Jaguars
Spread: -4
Opponent: @ CIN
T-25. Redskins
Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. SF
28. Raiders
Spread: +6
Opponent: @ GB
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
