NFL Week 7 Picks
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Anthony Dabbundo: The Giants pulled off yet another stunning one-score win in comeback fashion after the Ravens fumbled twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday.
The underlying box score suggests that the Giants were extremely fortunate to win the game. Baltimore won the yards per play battle 7.0-3.8 and the total yards 406-238. The Giants are a run-first offense through Saquon Barkley, entering Week 6 in the top 10 in rushing success rate and sixth in rushing DVOA on offense.
It's really difficult to run the ball against Mike Caldwell's defensive scheme in Jacksonville though. The Jags are top 10 defensively in line yards, as well as top seven in rushing success rate allowed and in DVOA defense.
The Jaguars will force the Giants to be in passing downs and third-and-long situations for large parts of the afternoon, and that's not a place the Giants will be successful. Jacksonville also has a major statistical advantage in early down success rates. While the Jaguars defense grades out as elite in early downs and in the top five overall, the Giants defense is just 26th in defensive early down success rate allowed.
Jacksonville's biggest problem in its close loss to the Colts was its inability to protect Trevor Lawrence, but the Giants are just average in pressure rate and pass rush win rate. Lawrence should have time to throw. Jacksonville is the better team regardless of the records and is at home.
I'd play the -2.5 before it moves to 3, which it already has at most books as of Sunday at 10:30 p.m. ET, and maybe even 3.5.
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Brandon Anderson: The division leading perfect-against-the-spread Atlanta Falcons continue to get no respect from the books.
The Falcons were downright impressive against the 49ers Sunday. San Francisco came into the game with the best Defensive DVOA in the league, and Atlanta drove right down the field for an opening TD, went up 14–0 in the first quarter and never looked back. The Falcons ran and passed with great success on an elite (albeit banged-up) defense, and Marcus Mariota only threw a single incompletion all game.
This isn’t exactly breaking news. Atlanta entered Sunday with a top-10 DVOA offense and the league’s second most lethal rushing attack, and the Falcons use that run threat to run endless playaction to pinpoint the defense’s weak points. Arthur Smith has been brilliant, putting this offense in position to succeed and helping them move the chains.
In other words, he’s been everything Zac Taylor has not.
The Bengals insist on making things harder for themselves on offense, staying overcommitted to the run. And although Cincinnati won a coin flip game Sunday, the Saints were arguably the better team and should have won if not for going 1-for-5 in the red zone.
Cincinnati’s defense has kept the Bengals season alive, but if Atlanta can move the ball and score on San Francisco, then they can score on the Bengals too — especially with stud Bengals run stopper D.J. Reader sidelined to injury.
These teams feel about equal, so this line is priced way off. I’ll grab Atlanta at +6.5 with the line already dropping at some books, especially since six is a key number too. Undefeated ATS teams that are underdogs in Week 6 or later are now 7–4 ATS all time, winning four of the last six outright.
That includes the Falcons win over the 49ers Sunday, and if the Bengals aren’t careful, they might be next on the list.
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Jets defense has looked much improved since the start of the season, giving up 20 points or less in their last three games. Their offense seems to have taken a step forward since the return of Zach Wilson.
Things are looking promising for the Jets as of late.
On the contrary, the Broncos have yet to get that offense going. If they have a poor performance on Monday Night Football (which I anticipate), this line could easily slip to 2.5 or even a pick'em.
Protecting Russell Wilson against this pass rush will be the key, but they haven’t proved they can protect him yet. Why would this week be any different?
