We're onto our NFL Week 7 picks.
With six teams on bye in Week 7, we only have 13 games to pick from. Our analysts have three of them covered for you below.
NFL Week 7 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jaguars vs. Saints
Love me a good, ugly Thursday night under.
The Jaguars returned from London and seemed to do just fine with a dominant 37-20 score line over the Colts. But did Jacksonville actually play well? The Jags offense had only 233 yards at just 3.8 yards per play. Jacksonville was helped by Indianapolis giving the game away by turning it over six times, including once near the start of the game to gift the Jags a TD and an early 14-point lead.
Jacksonville's offense remains mostly unimpressive, but the Jaguars are 4-2 now because the defense has been outstanding. They entered the weekend 11th in DVOA and were terrific again. But the Saints defense is even better. That unit entered Sunday fourth in DVOA and mostly shut down a very good Texans offense, especially in the second half.
Jacksonville may have survived its initial post-London test, but it's not out of the woods just yet. This game is a short week on the road after those two weeks in London and a flight home, and it wouldn't be surprised to see a lethargic team show up Thursday night.
Saints games have finished with 31, 37, 35, 35, 34 and 33 points. All six finished well below this total, at an average of 34.2 points per game. This total was 45 on the season lookahead, then 43 Sunday morning, and it's already trending downward.
This opened on Sunday night 42.5, which I bet, but was quickly bet down to 41.5 on Sunday night. I'd still play it at this number.
Totals below 42 are 30-18 on Thursday nights since 2010 (63%), and they're a pristine 17-4 if the total hits 40. Unders also continue to hit in primetime games at 60% the last four years and for home underdogs at 61% the last two years.
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Lions vs. Ravens
By Ricky Henne
I’m always on the lookout for what I feel are overwhelming trends, which is why I’m eyeing the Lions catching points next week in Baltimore.
Detroit is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) this year after dismantling the Buccaneers in Week 6. The Lions a dominant 28-12 ATS in the Dan Campbell-Jared Goff era, which is the best mark in the league over the past three seasons.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has struggled as a favorite over the same period of time. He’s only 8-16 ATS when laying points, and he's now returning stateside to face one of the league’s most under-appreciated defenses.
While a high-flying Lions’ offense averaging the fourth-most points per game (29.6) makes the headlines, Campbell’s defense is quietly among the league’s elite. That unit ranks third in DVOA, fourth against the run and eighth against the pass.
The Lions' prowess against the run makes this an especially tough spot for a Ravens team that pounds it at the league’s second-highest clip (50.93%). Baltimore terrific running the ball, though, ranking second in DVOA. However, the Ravens are just average passing the ball, ranking 17th in DVOA. I don’t like their chances of keeping it close if forced to air it out.
Simply put, Baltimore isn’t the all-around team that Detroit is. Combine it with the aforementioned trends, and I like Detroit as road 'dogs.
I’m not quite ready to jump on this yet, though. I’m holding out hope to get it at +3. I’m fine taking it at -2.5, but I vastly prefer it at the key number.
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Browns vs. Colts
We may not know much about this NFL season, but one thing we know for sure: the Browns defense is real, and it is spectacular.
Did anyone expect Cleveland and its third-string QB to take down the mighty 49ers? San Francisco had scored at least 30 points in every game this season, and the Browns held them to just 17 points. The Niners had a TD on the opening script they had practiced all week but was otherwise pretty completely shutdown other than a one-play eight-yard TD drive after an interception.
The Browns entered Sunday with the No. 1 Defensive DVOA, and that rating will only go up after that performance. Cleveland games have now finished with totals of 27, 48, 30, 31, and 36 — and remember, that 48 came thanks to two defensive TDs by the Steelers! Outside of those two scores, Browns games are averaging a measly 31.6 points per game. That is LOW.
Do we get Deshaun Watson this game? I wonder whether it even matters. Watson has been terrible and has a bad rotator cuff, and there's little reason to think he ignites this offense against a steady Gus Bradley defense in Indianapolis. There's a good chance we get a pair of backup quarterbacks in P.J. Walker and Gardner Minshew, and two backup QBs screams under all the way.
Minshew was awful Sunday with three interceptions and a strip sack, so hopefully neither backup is so bad that they set up the opponent for easy scores. Kevin Stefanski games with a total under 44 are 13-6 to the under (68%).
I got this under 40.5 while it was hot. PointsBet was the only place hanging 40 as of 10:45 p.m. ET. It was otherwise down to 39.5 everywhere else.
Pick: Under 40
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