It's Week 7, which means one-third of the season is in the books, and it still feels like we barely know anything. The only teams we definitely know are good are the Eagles and Bills, and they're both on a bye week.
Despite the parity and overall lack of clarity, we've got nine favorites of 3.5-plus, eight in that dangerous 3.5- to 10-point range we talked about earlier this week. Underdogs in that range are 36-17 ATS (68%) this season with a winning ATS record every week and a 34% ROI on the moneyline.
Underdogs have been lethal in 2022. If we're backing one of these clear favorites, we better be really certain.
Before we get to decisions on our three Waits from earlier in the week, let's make two updates.
That Seahawks line is still moving. We grabbed Seattle +7.5 on the Lookahead last week, and I still feel great about that.
We bet Seahawks +6.5 on our early week picks too, still good. Now the line has dropped past two key numbers to +5.5 and killed the value. If you still spot a +6, go for it, but otherwise I'll just play a bit on the moneyline.
With Russell Wilson out for the Broncos, Brett Rypien will make the start. Sean Koerner's ratings made that an 8.5-point drop before the season.
Wilson hasn't been good, but even if you account for his drop in play, this line hasn't moved enough toward the Jets. They're clear favorites now, playing well with a competent coaching staff and the better QB at this point.
I'll switch sides to the Jets -1, but I don't feel the need to play it. It's a great opportunity for New York to get to 5-2 on the road.
We've already made decisions for every other game, so be sure to check the full explanations there. Let's recap those Bet, Lean, and Pass decisions now that the lines have shifted and then get to our final three decisions.
Bet
- FanDuel QuickSlip: Seahawks ML | (Lean +5.5, Bet at +6)
- FanDuel QuickSlips: Falcons +6.5 | Falcons ML
- Titans -0.5 1H (Lean Titans -2.5) vs Colts
Lean
- Patriots -4 1H (Lean Patriots -7.5) vs Bears
- Jaguars -3 vs Giants
- Browns +6.5 at Ravens
- Texans +7 at Raiders
Pass
- Jets -1 at Broncos
- Commanders +4.5 vs Packers
- Bucs -13 at Panthers, but sprinkle Bucs shutout win +1400 (DraftKings)
Week 8 Lookahead Picks
- Falcons (-6.5) vs Panthers
- Seahawks (-1) vs Giants
Note: Odds are the best available for each pick as of writing. Shop for the best real-time lines with our NFL odds page.
Dak Prescott is back. Thank you for your service Cooper Rush, but this is Dak's team now, and what a gift to come back to games against the Lions and Bears before a bye week.
Prescott hasn't been great returning from injury, though, and this is a bad situational spot for the Cowboys. They're coming off a disappointing loss in a big division game against the Eagles, while the Lions are rested coming off a bye.
Detroit is also undervalued right now after a shutout loss that wasn't nearly as bad as it looked, one in which the Lions were missing a bunch of guys that are back now.
Teams coming off a shutout loss as an underdog are 52-37-5 ATS (58%), and road teams after a blowout ATS loss of 24 or more are 124-79-4 ATS (61%). It's also a winnable matchup since Detroit is built around a strong run game, and that's not as strong defensively for Dallas.
Our Luck Rankings also love this spot for Detroit. The Lions have been the unluckiest team in the NFL so far, while the Cowboys are the fourth luckiest. There's a 57% Luck Gap between these teams, and the unluckier team with a 40% or greater Luck Gap is now 12-1 ATS (92%) this season.
The trends and Luck Rankings all tell the same story: There's value on the line in Detroit's direction. The market is telling us the same thing.
The line sat at Dallas -7 all week, then moved toward the Lions after Prescott's return became official. The only way that makes sense is if money is coming in heavily on Detroit, and that's the case.
This is a Pros vs. Joes spot. The public is backing the Cowboys, like usual, but sharps are backing the Lions and the value on the line. Besides, wouldn't it be just like the Cowboys to bring back their franchise QB only for him to blow it against the Lions and ignite a quarterback controversy all over again?
The Pick: Lions +6.5 (Bet) | Previously: Wait for Dak Prescott news |
There are just too many injuries here for me to feel great about playing either side.
The trenches are the biggest problem. Kansas City's offensive line has struggled and would be a huge issue against a healthy 49ers front, but it's not clear which linemen will play or be effective for San Francisco.
As for the Niners, it looks like they get LT Trent Williams back, but he hasn't always been great when not fully healthy, so I need to see it.
The trenches determine so much for these teams, so I may bet live once we get a look, but it's tough to predict before the game. Both teams have serious cornerback depth concerns, too. San Francisco's pass defense DVOA has plummeted to 20th over the last three weeks, so injuries have hit hard.
Too many unknowns for me. I'd back Patrick Mahomes with a near coin flip spread if I had to make a pick.
The Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for 49ers injury report
Pardon the pun, but this line smells fishy.
There's just no great reason Miami should be getting this much respect. This line should be on the other side of that key number at least, and the Dolphins have major injury question marks. We don't know if LT Terron Armstead is ready, which corners will play, and what in the world to expect from Tua Tagovailoa.
This line is begging us to take the Steelers. Why? Pittsburgh just got a huge upset win over the Bucs as double-digit underdogs, and the Steelers cleared Kenny Pickett, Pat Freiermuth, and Levi Wallace from concussion protocol. The Steelers are the healthier team and Miami has lost three straight and hasn't won comfortably since the opener.
One big worry for the Steelers is that they've given up explosive pass plays, and that's why I'm buying before the game on Tyreek Hill to win OPOY at +1600. But that alone isn't enough to make this Dolphins by more than a TD.
Is this another Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot? He's now 38-15-1 ATS (72%) as an underdog Week 5 forward in his career.
I wondered how the trend held up after a big win the previous week. When Tomlin's guys covered the previous game by double digits, he's 11-2-1 ATS (85%) as an underdog the following week, including 9-5 SU, a 50% ROI. The trend holds, and then some.
I'm riding with one other more specific Tomlin motivational trend.
Tomlin went out on a limb this offseason by hiring a somewhat controversial defensive assistant coach. That'd be Brian Flores, who had an extremely ugly exit after three years with the Dolphins.
Flores knows this Miami roster inside and out, and you know this particular game means everything to him and, by extension, to Tomlin and the team.
I just can't get past the Flores angle. This might be Pittsburgh's Super Bowl.
The Pick(s): Steelers +7.5 (Lean) and Steelers ML +290 | Previously: Wait for QB injury news |
