D.K. Metcalf
ATD +160 (bet365)
This is a boom-or-bust pick, but the odds were too good to pass up for our first Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorer pick.
Metcalf can look great one game and be forgotten the next. Last week, Metcalf had just two catches on seven targets, although he hasn’t historically done well against the Cardinals. This week’s matchup is much better, though.
The Chargers have been abused against the pass this season, especially marquee free-agent signing J.C. Jackson. The former Patriots CB has allowed a 155.3 passer rating in coverage this season, which is second last among all corners who have been targeted 10 or more times, according to Pro Football Focus.
For this exercise, here’s what you need to know: The Chargers rank in the bottom five in TDs allowed to opposing WRs. Metcalf has nine red-zone targets this season and at least two looks inside the 20 in four straight games.
Brandon Aiyuk
ATD +180 (Caesars)
The Chiefs defense has been awful in stopping the pass this season and has allowed an NFL-leading nine touchdowns to opposing WRs.
Seven of those touchdowns came from the opposing team’s WR1. I know some consider Deebo Samuel as the 49ers’ top pass-catching option because of the targets, but it’s actually Aiyuk who has played more than 90% of snaps.
Aiyuk showed his physical nature with two touchdowns in the red zone last week against the Falcons. San Francisco will have to strike quickly to hang with the Chiefs, and Aiyuk is the guy it will go to to do that.
Brian Robinson Jr.
ATD +210 (bet365)
This is a bit of a momentum bet, but you can’t overlook an RB1 when you’re getting odds higher than +200.
Robinson has been getting the majority of carries since he made his NFL debut in Week 5. He had 15 rushes last week against Chicago, including four in the red zone and one touchdown. No other Washington RB got looks inside the 20.
Also, the Packers are a mess against the run. They’ve allowed five rushing TDs over their last three games, including one to all three opposing RB1s (Damien Harris, Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall).
Taylor Heinicke is getting the start, and his inclusion into the offense will likely lead to Washington trying to establish the run and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.
Robinson is around +175 at most books, so make sure you’re getting the best number by using our tracker.
David Njoku
ATD +330 (FanDuel)
Every fourth Sunday of October is National Tight Ends Day! A happy holiday to those who celebrate.
Last year, this day brought a TE-scoring frenzy. Hunter Henry, MyCole Pruitt, Mike Gesicki, C.J. Uzomah, Foster Moreau and Mo-Alie Cox got in on the celebrations.
Back to Njoku. He has eight red-zone rages this season, which is fourth among tight ends behind Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews. Not bad company.
The Ravens have given up four TDs to tight ends this season, which is in the bottom five of the NFL. Guys like Daniel Bellinger and Hayden Hurst were leading receivers when they played Baltimore.
Another trend worth noting: Njoku has scored in three of the seven games he’s played in his career against the Ravens. All three of those games were in Baltimore. Food for thought.
Shi Smith
ATD +600 (FanDuel)
This might be the grossest ATD pick I’ve made this season, mostly because I’m legitimately worried that the Panthers are going to get shut out.
We’re going to take a stab on Smith because, frankly, there’s no one left on the Panthers' roster to score. Christian McCaffrey is gone. Robbie Anderson is gone. D.J. Moore has been despondent.
Smith was playing 70% of offensive snaps before those trades, but he’s likely now the Panthers’ WR2. He’s also second on the team with three red-zone targets.
Carolina is playing a Bucs defense that has been beaten in the air this season, allowing three touchdowns to opposing WRs the last two games. Tampa Bay has also given up nine passing TDs to just three on the ground.
This one might come in garbage time, but they all count for six points.
