While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown specialist with Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite NFL player prop picks. Through six weeks, I’ve gone 9-9 for +2.5 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 21 of 28 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 7!
Ryan Tannehill
Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props as Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have been mainstays for this series. However, sportsbooks have caught on to them trucking defenses with their legs and, coincidentally, both are on BYE in Week 7.
That’s why we’re pivoting to Ryan Tannehill and banking on him to rush for at least nine yards against the Colts in an AFC South divisional matchup.
Part of the reason why we’re taking Tannehill here isn’t just because of the number (disrespectfully low), but because of his career rushing tendencies. In three-plus seasons as a Titan, he’s averaged at least 10 yards rushing per game, including last season when he averaged 15.8 rushing yards in 17 games.
Why Tannehill has been able to get his on the ground is due to how much of a decoy Derrick Henry is. The Titans have a nearly 70-30 split for run plays to pass plays in 2022, and with defenses shifting so much to stop the big play from Henry, that leaves Tannehill open to grab some easy yards on play-action or run fakes.
Tannehill ran for nine yards in the matchup with the Colts in Week 4, but last season, he ran for 82 yards on only seven attempts in two games against them.
Do I think he’ll go off for 50-plus yards on the ground? No. But getting nine yards is quite obtainable in this offense.
Kareem Hunt
Over 2.5 Receptions (+155, Bet365)
Although the Browns have stumbled out of the gate, the one phase of the game where they have solid footing is running the ball.
Nick Chubb is elite at breaking big plays, but his backup, Kareem Hunt, might be the best RB2 in the NFL. I like Hunt to get some work in the passing game in Week 7 and tally at least three receptions against Baltimore.
Hunt is the clear passing-down back in this offense over Chubb, as evidenced by their target share. Hunt has 17 targets to Chubb’s nine, while Hunt is second on the Browns in yards after catch (YAC) with 76 yards. Hunt has also gotten at least three catches in half of the games this season — Chubb has only gotten three targets in one game.
Facing a ferocious Ravens defense that will blitz early to make QB Jacoby Brissett make quick decisions, Hunt could be in line for a big day catching the ball on screen passes and dump-offs. The Ravens have also allowed opposing running backs to get going in the passing game as they rank 30th in catches allowed to the position (6.8 per game).
Aaron Rodgers
To Throw Interception (+210, BetMGM)
Six quarterbacks have plus odds to throw an interception in Week 7, including Tom Brady, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.
While those three have been hit or miss this season, I’m going big-game hunting this week and taking another swing on Aaron Rodgers, who we cashed in Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay, to throw an interception at +210.
While the Commanders' defense isn’t as formidable as Tampa's, they do something that I think lends itself well to bet this prop.
The main thing the Commanders can exploit is the Packers' struggling offensive line. Rodgers has been sacked 15 times this season and is on pace for nearly 40-plus. This is much higher compared to his previous two MVP seasons when he was sacked a combined 50 times.
Being able to get in a quarterback’s face and obstruct vision is essential when trying to force turnovers, and the Commanders' pass rush is undeniable with 19 this season (fourth in the NFL).
Playing on the road with a banged-up thumb could cause issues for Rodgers, who's had coordination issues with his wide receivers. Even last week against the Jets, there was a near-interception on his first pass of the game that just barely touched the turf before Sauce Gardener picked it up.
At this price, I’m willing to take a stab that another mistake is coming for the Packers quarterback.
