Week 7 features a loaded NFL slate that is off to a strong start after Arizona’s exciting 42-34 win over New Orleans on Thursday Night Football.
If you want to add an extra edge to your card, I recommend checking out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including ones where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the two PrizePicks props I’d consider playing.
QB Zach Wilson, Jets
Over/Under 175.5 Passing Yards
Sure, Wilson had a horrific Week 6 against Green Bay (10-for-18, 110 yards) and is now on the road to face the league’s best pass defense (per DVOA).
But doesn’t this line seem ridiculous?
Projections have Wilson soaring over this number. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Wilson for 211.5 passing yards and Stokastic’s Player Props Tool has him at 214.1 yards.
Moreover, the market has this line set closer to 185 than the 175.5 available on PrizePicks, giving us an extra edge.
This pick has no rhyme or reason, but I trust the projections. Plus, 175 passing yards is wildly low for a quarterback with 462 combined yards over his first two weeks back from injury.
Pick: Over 175.5 Passing Yards
RB Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
Over/Under 67.5 Rushing Yards
It’s time to accept the Seahawks offense is good.
Seattle is fourth in offensive DVOA, fifth in EPA per play and 13th in success rate. Geno Smith has transformed this offense and defenses have yet to stop it.
Rookie Kenneth Walker is quickly becoming a big part of the offense. The rookie out of Michigan State didn’t get a shot in the first few weeks, but broke out against New Orleans (eight attempts, 88 yards) and Arizona (21 attempts, 97 yards).
The Seahawks don't have a great offensive line as they are bottom 10 in line yards and get stuffed at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
That’s where Walker comes in — he makes up for some of the deficiencies in Seattle’s rushing game.
Despite facing stacked boxes 33% of the time last week (10th most), Kenneth Walker generated the 3rd-most Rush Yards Over Expected at 1.8 ROYE/Att
He might just be #goodatthegame#Seahawkspic.twitter.com/enylTgIus2
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) October 21, 2022
Walker produced 75 yards after contact against the Cardinals. He averaged almost five yards after contact per attempt in limited carries against San Francisco and Atlanta.
I’m expecting Walker to get more opportunities against the Chargers, who are letting teams run all over the place.
Los Angeles ranks 22nd in rush DVOA while allowing the 11th most rushing yards (750) and the second-highest YPA (5.6). In addition, it ranks among the bottom 10 in PFF’s run defense and tackling grades.
Good luck beating Walker, who was bred in the Big Ten to dominate shoddy tackling.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Walker for 75 rushing yards, making this a must for your PrizePicks card.
Pick: Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
