I'm back with three NFL picks for Week 7. My NFL predictions are 20-11 (+19.71%, +6.17 units) over the last 30 days as of Friday night.
I'm on an under and two spreads for Sunday's slate of games. Both teams I'm backing against the spread (ATS) are on the road, although only one is laying points. According to our Public Betting data, I'm backing two of the public's most popular teams, but there's nothing wrong with that when you're on the right side.
Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Predictions, Picks
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Over/Under Pick
The Browns offense has been horrid. Through six weeks, Cleveland is yet to score 20 points or gain 300 yards.
Per RBsdm.com, Deshaun Watson ranks 32nd out of 32 quarterbacks with 100-plus plays in adjusted Expected Points Added per dropback (-0.235).
The Browns just traded Amari Cooper, the only non-passer on the team responsible for multiple touchdowns. That means any success the Browns have on offense is likely to come via Nick Chubb and the running game, which will bleed clock.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has struggled the past two times he’s traveled to Cleveland, failing to lead his team to more than 13 points of offense.
- Week 1, 2023: 67 net passing yards on 33 dropbacks (2.0 net air yards), lost 24-3
- Week 8, 2022: 191 net passing yards on 40 dropbacks (4.8 net air yards), lost 32-13
This game also pops in our Luck Rankings with a score of -6.4 and anything less than -5.0 triggers a ‘Luck Under.’ Per Luck Rankings creator Nick Giffen, Luck Unders are 128-85-3 (60%) since 2018.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
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Pick Against the Spread
The Eagles will be without left tackle Jordan Mailata while the Giants will be without left tackle Andrew Thomas.
The difference?
The Eagles still have one of the best offensive lines in the game, with three starters ranking as above-average, per PFF (LG Landon Dickerson, 23rd of 76; RG Mekhi Becton, 24th of 76; RT Lane Johnson, 13th of 76), and a fourth (C Cam Jurgens, 19th of 37) that just misses the cut.
The Giants, meanwhile, have none.
Another difference: Jalen Hurts is fourth in completion percentage over expectation (+5.0%) despite A.J. Brown having missed three games, DeVonta Smith having missed one game and change, and Dallas Goedert (hamstring) having missed essentially all of last week.
Daniel Jones, meanwhile, is 21st in CPOE (0.0%) despite Malik Nabers having missed two games – one fewer than Brown.
The Eagles defense is coming together under Vic Fangio, and they’ve been at their best against offenses with offensive line issues. The Eagles held a Saints team with an injury-ravaged offensive line to 212 yards and 12 points in Week 3, and they held a Browns offense with a beat-up offensive line (among other issues) to 244 yards and no offensive touchdowns last week.
The Eagles are a bit underrated because of some fluke luck. If Saquon Barkley doesn’t drop a pass in Week 2, this is likely a 4-1 team. And if Cleveland doesn’t return a blocked Jake Elliott field goal for a touchdown last week, we’re likely looking at a 23-9 thrashing instead of a 20-16 “bad win” against the Browns.
Per our Action Labs data, the Giants are 14-19 (42%) ATS in Jones’ home starts and are failing to cover those contests by 3.8 points per game.
That includes a 1-4 (20%) ATS record in their second straight home game, contests they’re failing to cover by 6.2 points per game.
Bet to: -4
Pick: Eagles -3 (-115)
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Underdog Pick
The loss of Aidan Hutchinson for the Lions fifth-ranked defense in DVOA is big, but there is still a 17-spot difference between the Lions offense (first) and the Vikings offense (18th), with the Vikings offense being the only unit in this game that ranks outside the top 10.
The Vikings defense won’t be able to get as much pressure as usual against the Lions top-tier offensive line. When getting pressure, the Vikings are allowing an absurd 3.0 YPA and -0.79 Expected Points Added per dropback. When they’re unable to get pressure, they allow 7.4 YPA and 0.09 EPA/DB.
Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 39-17 (70%) ATS, covering by 1.9 points per game.
Furthermore, despite the Vikings playing at home, the Lions are the better bet to get some officiating breaks with Clay Martin being the head referee.
Per Action Labs, road underdogs are 35-16 (70%) ATS with Martin in charge, covering by 3.8 points per game.
Bet to: +1
Pick: Lions +1.5 (-110)
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