Welcome to Week 7 of survivor pool analysis, or as I like to call it "Which New York team am I going against this week?"
The New York Jets are on a historically bad pace and have apparently decided that Adam Gase is the right man to lead them into this disaster of an abyss. It's no surprise that the team facing the Jets this week is once again the most popular play.
Deciding whether or not to go against the Jets the entire season is likely to make or break you in your pools this year. Are the Buffalo Bills still worth a play this week? Let's look at the data to find out.
Here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
As you can see, the Bills are the most likely team to win and they don't have much future value to speak of.
This is also the Philadelphia Eagle's easiest projected game of the season as they host the other team from New York, the Giants. Surprisingly this is also one of the New Orleans Saints' easiest remaining games as they enter the difficult stretch of their schedule.
The Chiefs number is lowered slightly by the weather forecast:
First snow game of the year? pic.twitter.com/UoZ6bqCNp4
— Travis Reed (@BetLabsTravis) October 21, 2020
Here is the expected value of each team given their projected win percentage and how many people are expected to take them.
| Team | Pick % | Model | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 46.3% | 79.1% | 0.98 |
| Saints | 12.6% | 72.6% | 1.08 |
| Eagles | 5.3% | 71.9% | 1.14 |
| Chiefs | 12.4% | 70.5% | 1.05 |
| Chargers | 12.2% | 70.4% | 1.03 |
| Rams | 0.5% | 66.4% | 1.10 |
Let's first eliminate some choices. Taking the Chiefs on the road in a snowstorm when they have so many opportunities upcoming seems foolish.
The expected value difference between the Los Angeles Chargers and Bills doesn't seem like a big enough gap to fade Buffalo so I'd cross off the Bolts as well.
My Pick: Eagles over Giants
As a generic pick for the average reader, I like the Eagles this week as the best play on Thursday Night Football.
But there is a caveat.
If a large chunk of the people in your pool have already used Buffalo, then the Bills become a better option. Most pools will allow you to see what other users have picked. You should be able to calculate how many people have the Bills as an option.
As the number of entries that have Buffalo as an option decreases, the expected value of taking the Bills increases.
In simpler terms, if you are in a giant pool I think going against the masses is eventually going to pay off one of these weeks. If you are in a smaller pool where a lot of people have already used Buffalo, you can feel pretty good about taking the Bills.
For users who have to make multiple picks this week, the obvious choice is taking both the Bills and Eagles.
If you have somehow used both, the Saints and LA Rams are both contrarian options that have positive expected value this week.
