Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
With the one Luck Ranking matchup in Week 8 ending in a loss (San Francisco failing to cover against Cincinnati), unlucky teams meeting our luck criteria move to 7-7-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-61-6 overall since 2018 in luck-based matchups.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the science behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at expected scores and comparing them to actual scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 8, before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 8
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Green Bay Packers (+1.5)
- Actual Result: Vikings 24, Packers 10
- Expected Score: Vikings 21, Packers 18
- Swing: 11 points, 30.8% win probability
The Packers started off the game with four straight three-and-outs and closed the first half with a measly three points. The bad luck came in the second half for Jordan Love and the offense.
The first came after the Packers were able to block a field goal attempt from Greg Joseph following the tragic season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins. The Packers, trailing by 14, turned the ball over on downs inside the redzone with three straight incompletions.
The second came on the very next possession, in which Green Bay recovered a fumble at the Minnesota 15-yard line. The Packers then had a sack, an incompletion and a Love scramble on 4th and 16 that came up one-yard short.
After forcing the Vikings to punt again, the Packers tried to find Christian Watson on multiple attempts in the endzone, but were unable to score.
Green Bay was in plus territory on three straight possessions and couldn't score a single point. As a result, we label the Packers as the most unlucky team this weekend.
2. Buffalo Bills (-10)
- Actual Result: Bills 24, Buccaneers 18
- Expected Score: Bills 31, Buccaneers 11
- Swing: 14 points, 25.9% win probability
Although the Bills were able to win this one outright, they should have won by at least three scores, according to our models.
The bad luck began for the Bills on their second offensive possession, where they had two plays from the Buccaneers' 1-yard line. A stuffed rush attempt by Latavius Murray, followed by an incomplete pass on fourth down ended the drive with no points for the Bills.
The Bills were able to stretch this game to a 14-point lead, but the offense hit a rut midway through the second half, resulting in four straight punts. The last four punts, and last four drives of the game, all ended at midfield or on the Buccaneers' side of the field. We expect at least a couple of these drives to end in some form of points for the Bills.
The last bad luck for the Bills was the 4th and 10 for the Buccaneers in plus-territory with 2:48 remaining in the game. While it was a huge backdoor cover for Buccaneers bettors, a touchdown was far from expected, especially when a failed fourth-and-10 is pretty commonplace in the NFL.
3. New York Giants (+2)
- Actual Result: Giants 10, Jets 13
- Expected Score: Giants 15, Jets 12
- Swing: 6 points, 22.5% win probability
This is a game where the team that lost actually should have won and if you watched it, you know why.
The first play that set the alarm off was the Jets 1st and 10 from the 50-yard line toward the end of the first quarter. Many bettors expected a good day from Breece Hall, but a 50-yard touchdown reception may not have been on their bingo cards. The Giants missed a couple tackles on that drive that probably would have changed the outlook of the possession.
The following possession saw the Giants' drive end at the Jets' 29-yard line, where Graham Gano attempted his second field goal of the afternoon. He missed that one in tough conditions, but is expected to hit it north of 65% of the time.
Later in the game, Gano missed another field goal attempt. While it is "bad luck" according to the metrics, it is truly just bad kicking. However, even for the worst kicker in the NFL by percentage, we expect him to make a 35 yarder the vast majority of the time.
