Entering Week 8, we've had just two double-digit favorites this season. This week, we could see as many as three games close with that high of a favorite.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 8 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
A Whole New World
Lions Big Favorites
Lions are 11-pt favorites vs. Titans this week…
Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since September of 1996 vs. Bucs as a 12-pt favorite behind 125 rushing yards from Barry Sanders. That was 459 total games ago for Detroit.
Road Domination
Pack It Up
Road favorites are 16-2 ATS since start of Week 5, with the Jets and Chargers the only losses, both coming in primetime in Week 7.
Overall, road teams are 61-39-3 ATS (61%) this season — the 2nd best win pct through 7 weeks in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Engine Trouble
Eagles Starting Slow
A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-6 against the first quarter spread, only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.
Eagles first quarter offense: 13 possessions. 59 plays, 175 yards (2.97 yards per play), 5 three-and-outs, 3 turnovers. 0 points.
Last 20 years, only three teams have scored 0 1Q pts through Week 7.
2021 Jets (finished 4-13)
2008 Lions (finished 0-16)
2005 Cardinals (finished 5-11)
Public Strikes Back
Turn Around
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 48-53-3 ATS (48%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $932. Like with big dogs, we’ve seen a turn the last two weeks.
Public by week:
Weeks 6-7: 20-7-1 ATS (Teams with 66%+ tickets are 17-0-1 ATS)
Weeks 1-5: 48-69-2 ATS, 41%
Trouble vs. Your Own
Stefanski Against AFC North
The Browns are 8-17 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 153 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable ATS. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), no head coach has a worse ATS win pct in more divisional games coached than Stefanski.
Chalk Back
Favorites On Great Run
Through the first four weeks of the regular season, favorites went 27-35-2 ATS (44% ATS), failing to cover the spread by almost 2 PPG.
Since then, favorites are 28-14-1 ATS (67%) over the last three weeks, covering the spread by 4 PPG.
New Sheriff In Town
Jets Favored Again
Jets haven’t closed -7 or higher vs. Patriots since Sept 12. 1999 after closing at -6.5 against them earlier this season.
2001-02 is the last time the Jets have been favored in consecutive games vs. Patriots, with 2001 the last time they were favored in both season meetings.
Monday Mike
New York At Night. Again.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are tough to beat at any time or place under Mike Tomlin. But at home, under the lights, especially on MNF, it’s another level. Dating back to 1992, the Steelers are 21-1 SU in home MNF games, with their only loss coming to Washington back in 2020.
Another week, another New York team in primetime at night. The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-32 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019. They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games back in 2015 – they are 11-45 SU in primetime since then.
Daniel Jones is 1-15 SU and 6-10 ATS at night in his career, including 0-8 SU at home and 1-7 SU on the road at night.
Every NFL Game For Week 8
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➤This will be Sam Darnold’s first start for Minnesota in 4p ET kick or later – a more high-profile spot, outside of the London game vs. Jets.
Danrold is 5-10 SU in games played at 4p ET or later – including just 1-2 SU when listed as the favorite.
On short rest, Darnold is just 2-6 SU in his career. He was 2-0 SU with the Panthers and 0-6 SU with the Jets.
➤Since 1990, undefeated teams after suffering their first loss of the season SU, in Week 8 or later, are just 29-21 SU and 22-28 ATS in their next game.
When that team is listed as a road favorite, they are just 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS.
Teams who are undefeated and then suffer their first loss, who have to play on TNF the next week, are just 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS since 1990.
Teams who are undefeated and then suffer their first loss, who have to play on short rest in their next week, the over is 26-8-2 in that same time frame.
➤Matthew Stafford has played four TNF games in his career. He’s 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite and 0-2 SU/ATS as underdogs.
➤Sean McVay on the other hand, is 19-16-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 6-3 ATS. He started his coaching career 0-3 ATS in this spot and has covered six straight since.
Since 2019, McVay is the best coach ATS in this spot.
➤In terms of preparing teams for a game on short rest and prep – no coach is better than McVay.
In his coaching career, he’s 13-6 ATS on short rest, covering 4 in a row, and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games in this spot. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 5-1 ATS on short rest.
➤Stafford needs to turn the clock back to his Super Bowl run. He went 3-0 SU as a dog that year. Since then, he’s 2-14 SU as a dog. Career, he’s 30-79 SU as an underdog — 28%.
Since 2022, Stafford is the 2nd-worst QB in ML profit ahead of only Bryce Young.
➤How much does win pct matter in Thursday Night games?
Teams with a win pct 50+ pts higher than their opponent is 19-26-1 ATS (42%) since 2003. On either TNF, SNF or MNF, these such teams are 79-97-6 ATS (45%) since 2003.
➤Teams after facing the Lions are 0-4 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 26 PPG and 14-23 ATS over the last three seasons.
➤A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-6 against the first quarter spread, only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.
Eagles first quarter offense: 13 possessions. 59 plays, 175 yards (2.97 yards per play), 5 three-and-outs, 3 turnovers. 0 points.
Last 20 years, only three teams have scored 0 1Q pts through Week 7.
2021 Jets (finished 4-13)
2008 Lions (finished 0-16)
2005 Cardinals (finished 5-11)
➤The Eagles are now 1-5 against the first-half spread this season joining the Panthers and Dolphins as the only three teams with one ATS win or fewer in the first half this season.
Question is, was 2022 an outlier? Nick Sirianni was 15-5 1H ATS that year they went to the Super Bowl. Outside of that year, he is 15-27 1H ATS as coach of the Eagles.
➤Road unders with Jalen Hurts have been the way lately. Hurts is 20-11 to the under on the road in his career, including 10-3 since the start of last season. That's the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 40-25-1 ATS (63%) – Entering last week, the Browns had been a thorn in his side. He’s now 2-5 SU vs. Cleveland and 1-3 SU on the road vs. Browns.
After Burrow faces the Browns, he is 5-1-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in his career and 12-7-1 ATS the game after facing an AFC North opponent.
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 41-24-1 (62%) against the second-half spread. He's 7-10 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
When the first half margin is within one-score, he is 25-12-1 against the 2H spread, the 2nd-best mark of any QB in the last 20 years behind just Alex Smith.
➤Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 29 times in his career; he's 22-6-1 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in 2024 so far.
➤In 2022, Burrow completed 38% of his attempts 20+ yds downfield. That dipped to 33% in 2023 and in 2024 so far he is 9-20 going 20+ downfield, for a 45% comp pct. Burrow is the No. 2 graded passer 20+ yds downfield via PFF this year behind only Trevor Lawrence.
➤Dating back to 2022, Burrow is 10-2 SU vs. the NFC, including 12-6-1 SU in his career. He’s 10-1 SU in his last 11 games vs. NFC. As a favorite vs. NFC, he’s 10-2 SU.
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➤Ravens got out to a big lead on the road last week and won by 10, covering the spread. Since 2019, Baltimore is 29-7 SU when leading by 7 pts or more on the road at any point – that 81% SU win pct is 2nd-best in the NFL behind just the Chiefs.
➤Without Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the season, the Browns will be turning to a backup QB, in Jameis Winston.
Since 2013, this will be the 64th game played by a backup QB for the Browns – the most in the NFL over that span by over 15 games.
Cleveland is 23-40 SU, 30-32-1 ATS with a backup QB in that span. Since the start of last season, Cleveland has played 12 games with a backup QB, between Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel, DTR and PJ Walker, the Browns are actually an even 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS.
➤So far during the 2024 season, we’ve had 17 games started by backup QBs. They are 8-9 SU and 9-8 ATS.
Here is how backup QBs have performed last two seasons.
48-70 SU
56-56-6 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their first start with the team.
12-23 SU
15-19-1 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their second start with the team.
9-15 SU
13-11 ATS
➤Jameis is 34-42-4 ATS in his NFL career. Since he was drafted in 2015, Jameis is the 5th-least profitable QB ATS, ahead of just Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Mac Jones.
When Jameis last made a start back in 2022, he went 0-3 ATS that season, failing to cover the spread by 7.3 PPG.
One of Jameis’ Achilles heels is trying to cover at home. He is 13-23-2 ATS at home in his career, which ranks 150th of 152 QBs over the last decade. Since the start of the 2019 season, Jameis has covered 1 of 10 home games for the Saints and Bucs.
➤How bad has Watson been recently? 64 QBs have had at least 200 plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 58th in EPA/play, 57th in success rate, 49th in CPOE (completion percentage over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Zach Wilson and Will Levis.
Watson’s last 300-yard game came with the Texans in January 2021.
Deshaun Watson’s passing success rate% is 33.3 through 7 games – 16th-worst mark of any QB in the last 30 years. Of those 16 QBs, his 8.4 yards gained per completion is tied for the worst of any of those 16 QBs with Bobby Hoying from the Eagles back in 1998.
➤Entering last week, the Browns had yet to score 20 points in a game this season and had yet to have 200-yard passing game. They finally had the 200+ yd passing game, but are the only NFL or CFB team yet to score 20 pts or more.
They were the first team to start a season without reaching either of those marks through six games since the 1999 Browns did it through seven games.
Now, Cleveland is the 4th team to start their first 7 games without scoring 20+ pts since 2000 with 2009 Redskins, 2005 Ravens and 2004 Redskins.
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 45-31 ATS (59%) since 2018, best of any division, they are .500 ATS or better in seven straight seasons and they are 23-16 ATS since 2021. So far in 2024, they are actually 0-2 ATS.
➤The Browns have lost three consecutive home games both SU and ATS entering this contest.
Cleveland hasn’t lost three in a row SU at home since 2019, and they haven’t lost four straight since the 2017 season (also lost ATS).
➤The Browns are 8-17 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 153 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable. Stefanski is 27-23-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤Between 2008 and 2020, the Ravens went 22-4 SU vs. Browns. Now, since 2021, the series is tied with three SU wins a piece, with the Ravens failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 meetings.
➤In Lamar Jackson’s career, he is 0-4 ATS vs. Steelers and 12-8 ATS vs. Browns and Bengals – 6-4 ATS vs. each team.
On the road in Cleveland, Lamar is 4-0 ATS in his career. He’s also 4-0 ATS on the road in Cincinnati – for an 8-0 ATS mark on the road vs. Cleveland and Cincinnati. On the road vs. Steelers, he is 0-3 ATS.
➤Lamar is 6-3 ATS in his career when playing on a road trip (2nd consecutive road game or later). But he’s only laid 4 pts or more on the road in that spot twice – and he’s 0-2 SU/ATS in those games back in 2023 vs. Steelers and 2020 vs. Patriots.
➤Laying 3.5 pts or more on the road in consecutive games isn’t the easiest spot. Teams in that 2nd game of -3.5 on the road or more are just 27-36 ATS (43%) over the last decade.
➤Lions are 11-pt favorites vs. Titans this week…
Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since September of 1996 vs. Bucs as a 12-pt favorite behind 125 rushing yards from Barry Sanders. That was 459 total games ago for Detroit
➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 2-1 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 32-19-2 ATS (63%) at home, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤In his career, Goff has closed as a double-digit favorite 10 times. His teams are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS. This would be the first time since joining the Lions he closes as a double-digit favorite with Detroit, with all 10 games coming with the Rams.
With Detroit, Goff has closed above a 7-pt favorite four times, his teams are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, with the lone cover coming against the Panthers.
➤Lions are averaging 30.3 PPG. Titans are averaging 17.7 PPG.
Teams avg 30+ PPG are just 58-64-2 ATS as DD favorites over the last 20 years in the regular season after the month of September, including just 14-16-1 ATS since 2020.
When those teams are on a 4+ game win streak, they are 24-34 ATS (41%).
➤Goff is the only QB to go 4 straight games with an 80% completion percentage and passer rating of over 140 since the AFL/NFL merger of 1970. In their past four games, the Detroit Lions have scored more touchdowns (18) than Jared Goff has had incompletions (15).
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor…
Indoor: 40-18 ATS (30-10 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
➤No matter the circumstances, the Lions have figured out a way to cover the spread since 2022. Here are their ATS numbers off a SU win and SU loss since 2022.
SU win: 18-8 ATS
SU loss: 10-4 ATS
➤The Lions are 40-17 ATS (70.2%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
➤Titans closed as 9.5-pt underdogs last week vs. Bills and failed to cover the spread. This week, they look like they will close as double-digit underdogs.
Teams to close +9 or higher previous week in an ATS loss, who are +9 again, are 69-53-1 ATS (57%) over the last 20 years.
➤There have been 158 QBs who have started at least 10 games in the last 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second-half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of MNF, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-10 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-7 SU/ATS as a starter. Levis has scored more than 17 points once in those eight games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he is 2-9 SU/ATS as a starter.
➤Of the 63 QBs to have at least 100 plays since the start of last year, Levis ranked 50th in EPA/play, 49th in success rate, 53rd in completion percentage … and 3rd in air yards at 10 per attempt.
As a comparison, Mason Rudolph is ranked 26th in EPA/play, 34th in success rate, 2nd in completion pct and 55th in air yards. Rudolph is playing it safer and is a better option for Tennessee to stay in games.
➤The oddest of odd, but in his career, Rudolph is 10-5 ATS in 15 starts, covering the spread by over a FG per game.
He’s only closed as a 7-pt dog or higher three times, he is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in those games – with opponents scoring 24 pts or more in all three games.
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➤Kyler Murray has only started two games on the road on short rest in his NFL career.
In 2021, a 30-12 loss in Detroit.
In 2020, a 28-21 loss in Seattle.
He’s 0-2 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 17.5 PPG
➤Kyler is not a QB you usually want to fade as an underdog. He is 28-17-2 ATS as a dog in his career, and 10-16 ATS as a favorite.
As a road dog, Kyler is 18-7-2 ATS – that is the 6th-best mark since 2003.
➤In his career, Kyler is 14-17 SU, 16-14-1 ATS after a Cardinals SU win, but 0-2 ATS this season. Kyler, himself, hasn't won consecutive starts SU since October of 2021 – a streak of 11 consecutive SU losses.
➤Cardinals will travel across the country on short rest after facing the Chargers on MNF.
Teams traveling from MST/PST to EST on short rest are 33-43-3 ATS (43%) since 2003.
➤Dolphins are 0-3 ATS at home this season.
Miami hasn’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. They are 39-26-3 ATS since 2016 at home. The Dolphins are now the 2nd-best home team ATS in that span, with the Packers the best.
Dating back to last season, the Dolphins are on a 4-game ATS home losing streak – they haven’t lost 4 in a row at home ATS prior to this since 2019. They haven’t lost five straight ATS at home since 2010-11.
➤Mike McDaniel is 20-22 ATS in his pro coaching career. He’s 17-16 ATS with Tua Tagovailoa and 3-6 ATS with Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in 9 starts.
In the nine games without Tua Tagovailoa, they are scoring 21 or less in 8 of the 9 games. McDaniel is 20-13 SU in games Tua Tagovailoa starts. He is 2-7 SU in games he doesn’t.
➤With Tua slated to return this week, Miami can hope they go back to their old ways.
Last week was the 29th game of the last decade where the Dolphins franchise has to turn to a backup QB. They are 8-20 SU, 11-17 ATS, going 4-13 SU since the start of the 2019 season.
➤Miami has played eight home games under Mike McDaniel where their opponent wasn’t a team based in EST. They are just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in those games.
➤The Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall dating back to last season.
That is their worst 9-game ATS stretch since 2015-16.
➤Talk about a difference. This season, the Dolphins are 1-5 against the first-quarter spread, getting their first 1Q ATS win last week. In 2023, they were 11-6 1Q ATS, 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
➤The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. Patriots after winning and covering their last two meetings vs. New England.
Jets are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games vs. Patriots, including 4-23 SU since the start of the 2011 season. Prior to these two straight wins, they had lost 15 consecutive games vs. NE.
This is the Jets first 2-game SU and SU/ATS win streak vs. NE since 2008-09. They last won three consecutive games SU vs. NE back in 2000-01 and the last time they won and covered three straight? 1997-98.
➤Jets have now been favored twice vs. Patriots since 2002 – Nov. 13, 2011. Mark Sanchez vs. Tom Brady and earlier this year on TNF.
Jets haven’t closed -7 or higher vs. Patriots since Sept 12. 1999 after closing at -6.5 against them earlier this season.
2001-02 is the last time the Jets have been favored in consecutive games vs. Patriots, with 2001 the last time they were favored in both season meetings.
➤Rodgers has historically dominated divisional opponents. He is 55-33 ATS (63%) in his career, including 48-26 ATS (65%) as a favorite.
When his opponent is on normal rest or less, he is 41-24 ATS, when they are on 8 days rest or more, he is just 9-7 ATS.
➤There have now been seven different Jets coaches since 2000 and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤QBs are chucking the ball downfield against the Jets this year. Opposing QBs aDOT is 9.7, T-2nd highest mark in the NFL, with the highest going to the Texans at 9.9. 16.5% of pass attempts are deep throws (20+ yds) vs. Jets this year, also 2nd-highest behind just the Browns.
2024: 9.7 – 2nd of 32
2023: 7.1 – 31st of 32
2022: 8.1 – 16th of 32
➤Patriots return from a game in London vs. Jaguars, without a bye week in between.
The Jaguars and Patriots this week will be the 25th and 26th teams to play a game on 7 days rest or less coming off an International Series game. Those teams are actually 16-8 SU, 13-11 ATS in their next game. Additionally, 15 of those 24 teams were tied or trailing at the end of the 1st quarter in their next game.
Overall, of the 93 teams to play a game directly after an International Series game, no matter if they had a bye or not, 58 were tied or trailed, while just 35 led the game.
➤The Jets have scored two more pts through seven weeks than they did last year. Let’s compare New York through seven games last two seasons.
2024: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 128 pts, 145 opp pts, 11 pass TD, 7 INT, 6.0 Y/A, 5.00 yds/play, 3.9 yds/rush att
2023: 4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 126 pts, 129 opp pts, 5 TD, 5 INT, 5.3 Y/A, 4.78 yds/play, 4.9 yds/rush att
➤Jets have scored 20 pts or less in four straight games and is now on the verge of laying 7 pts on the road – it’s been 13 years, the 2011 Texans, since a team “accomplished” that feat.
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➤Falcons have covered two straight games in Tampa Bay entering this contest – first time they’ve done that since 2010-11.
Atlanta, in its franchise history, has never covered three straight games on the road against the Bucs.
➤Kirk Cousins is already 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) vs. divisional opponents while playing with the Falcons. During his time in Minnesota, he was 19-10-1 SU vs. NFC North opponents – for a 22-10-1 SU mark. In his days with Washington, Kirk was only 8-14 SU vs. divisional opponents.
➤Here is how Cousins has performed career of a SU win and loss.
Win: 32-44-2 ATS (2nd-worst of 243 QBs since 2003)
Loss: 40-26 ATS (5th-best of 280 QBs since 2003)
➤A good home spot for the Bucs. Last decade, teams who played on MNF at home and are at home again as favorites are 24-6 SU and 18-14 ATS.
With the Bucs and Panthers, Baker is just 1-5 SU/ATS on a homestand (2+ consecutive home games), but 1-0 SU/ATS in 2024, beating the Eagles earlier this year.
➤Baker Mayfield is 7-5 ATS in his career on short rest, covering the spread in five of his last six regular season games on short rest, with the only loss coming to the Falcons three weeks ago.
As an underdog on short rest, Baker is 5-3 ATS, while he is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite.
➤Against divisional opponents, Baker has been dreadful at home ATS, but better on the road. He is 4-10 ATS at home and .500 ATS at 10-9 on the road.
He’s the 4th-worst QB ATS vs. divisional opponents since he was drafted and the worst ATS at home.
➤The Bucs are coming off a MNF game against the Ravens last week. Teams after facing the Ravens last three seasons are 27-15 SU in their next game – 3rd-best team on the ML in that span. When that team plays at home after Baltimore, they are 17-7 SU.
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through seven games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks each.
On the season, the Falcons have just six sacks in seven games – only four teams have had fewer than six sacks through 7 games since 2000.
➤Chris Godwin is most likely out for the remainder of the season. He led the Bucs this season entering Week 7 in routes run, targets, receptions, rec yds, YAC and first read/designed targets. His yards after catch may be the biggest loss. Godwin had 335 entering Week 7. No other Bucs player had 200 or more and no Bucs WR/TE had 100 or more.
Since Godwin’s last missed game in Sept. of 2022, he had gone 40 of 41 games with 5+ targets, including 14 straight games with 5+ targets for the Bucs.
➤Jaguars return from back-to-back games in London, without a bye week in between.
Last year, Jacksonville went 2-0 in consecutive games overseas then returned home to face the Colts at home. Jacksonville started slow, trailing 3-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, but ended up winning and covering by double-digits.
The Jaguars and Patriots this week will be the 25th and 26th to play a game on 7 days rest or less coming off an International Series game. Those teams are actually 16-8 SU, 13-11 ATS in their next game. 15 of those 24 teams were tied or trailing at the end of the 1st quarter in their next game.
Overall, of the 93 teams to play a game directly after an International Series game, no matter if they had a bye or not, 58 were tied or trailed, while just 35 led the game.
➤Trevor Lawrence’s last three starts have gone over the total. He’s only had four straight starts to the over once in his career in his 59 career starts.
Lawrence is 33-26 to the under in his NFL career, including 24-16 to the under in November or earlier. Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤Among active starting QBs, Lawrence’s 2-7 ATS mark at home last two seasons is T-2nd worst with Kirk Cousins in the NFL ahead of just Geno Smith, who is also at home this week.
➤The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a dip in his numbers when favored, but he’s actually 33-29 ATS as a favorite with the Packers. The issue has been away from home, where he's gone 9-14 ATS as a favorite.
➤After a SU win, LaFleur has performed well with the Packers. His teams are 36-27 ATS after a SU win, they are 24-18 ATS after 2+ straight wins and 16-12 ATS on a 3+ game SU win streak.
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 4-5 ATS as a favorite in his short career and he is 10-6 ATS as an underdog. Love is just 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.
GB has closed above -3 on the road with Love under center twice, they are 0-2 ATS in those games.
➤Against the Texans and Cardinals, Jordan Love has gotten his groove back.
He has 7 TD, 3 INT, but a 70.8% completion pct.
Through the first five games, Love had 8 TD, 5 INT and a 56.1% completion pct, lowest among QBs with 100+ pass attempts at the time.
Love’s CPOE (completion percentage over expected) is -2.1 this year, ranked 27th of 34 QBs with 100+ plays.
The good part? Love’s long passing game. Last season, he was 38-of-90 (42%) on passes 20 yards downfield — that was the most completions in football and ranked in the middle of the NFL in terms of percentage. This season, he’s 11-of-28 on those throws with 5th-most completions in just five games.
➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-16 ATS (64%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – 6th-best mark of any head coach since 2003.
LaFleur is only 22-19 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU, but he’s covered six games in a row in that spot.
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➤Since 2013, the Colts are 10-1-1 ATS on the road in Houston. Richardson is 1-0 SU/ATS in Houston, in that span, the only ATS loss came from Matt Ryan with Luck, Brissett, Rivers, Richardson, Wentz and Hasselbeck combining for the 10 covers.
➤Through three weeks, Richardson is completing just 48.5% of his passes. The only QB under 50% with at least 25 pass attempts.
Richardson is the 12th QB since 2000 to be under 50% passing through 7 games with 100+ attempts – with his pass success rate pct at 35.2%, that is the lowest among those 12 QBs since Josh Freeman in 2013 and his 6 INT among that group is the most since Derek Anderson and JaMarcus Russell in 2009.
Richardson’s off-target throw pct is 29.7% this year, the highest pct for any QB this year with at least 15 pass attempts.
Among players with 150-plus pass attempts in their first two seasons in the NFL, here are the lowest completion percentages over the last decade:
Bryce Petty: 53.1%
DeShone Kizer: 53.1%
Anthony Richardson: 53.5%
➤Richardson faces a good offense in the Texans this week (23.6 PPG).. He is 0-2 SU/ATS in his career, facing offenses scoring 20 PPG or more, losing to the Packers this year and Rams last year.
➤Richardson still leads the NFL with 12.2 aDOT through seven games for the Colts. He had an aDOT of 8 last season. His 12.6 aDOT is highest for any QB through two weeks since 2018.
Highest aDOT through Week 7, Since 2018 (min. 100 plays)
12.2, 2024 Anthony Richardson
11.6 2022 Jameis Winston
10.9 2019 Ryan Fitzpatrick
10.9 2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick
10.7 2021 Lamar Jackson
10.7 2019 Jameis Winston
10.6 2020 Drew Lock
10.5 2018 Jameis Winston
10.2 2022 Mac Jones
10.2 2018 Tyrod Taylor
10.0 2019 Matthew Stafford
➤The Colts have started the season with each of their games decided by one score (eight points or less) through seven games. Their record is 4-3 SU and their point differential for the season is plus-six. Dating back to last season, Indy’s last nine games have all been decided by one score.
Of teams to start season with seven straight one-score games over the past decade, four missed the playoffs, while the 2022 Giants were the only team to win a playoff game.
2024 Colts
2023 Vikings – Miss
2022 Giants – L Div
2019 Colts – Miss
2016 Ravens – Miss
2016 Lions – L WC
2015 Ravens – Miss
Dating back to 1990, any team with seven straight one-score games to begin the season is 4-8 ATS in their next game. Since 2019, any team on a 7+ game one-score streak, is 7-14 SU and 8-13 ATS in their next game.
➤This will be CJ Stroud’s fourth career game vs. Colts (1-2 ATS). He’s scored 20+ points in all three meetings, but it is his defense that has been the issue in his two ATS losses vs. Indianapolis, allowing 27 and 31 pts in both of those games
➤We know Nico Collins is important to the Texans offense. In his career with Houston, the Texans are 5-12 SU in games he either doesn’t play or has one target or fewer.
When Nico scores a receiving TD, Houston is 8-5 SU in those games.
In Weeks 1-5, Nico led the NFL in receiving yards by over 100 and his 1st read/designed target mark of 36 was T-6th most at that point in the year.
➤Dennis Allen has struggled as a head coach when his teams don’t have extra time to prepare. He is 15-41 SU on normal or short rest as coach of the Saints and Raiders.
Allen is 1-11 SU on short rest.
Allen is 14-30 SU on normal rest.
Allen is 8-7 SU on extended rest.
➤Derek Carr has missed four regular season games for injuries in his career. He also missed a playoff game for the Raiders in the 2016 season and was benched for the final two games of the 2022 season.
Weeks 6, 7, 2024 (oblique)
Week 5, 2017 (back)
Week 17, 2016 (leg)
With Carr sidelined again, the Saints go to a backup QB this week. This will be the Saints' 28th game with a backup QB dating back to 2013 and they are a very respectable 13-14 SU and 16-11 ATS using a backup QB over that span, but are 0-2 SU/ATS this year with Spencer Rattler, being outscored 84-37 in two games.
➤The Saints defense has taken a turn for the worse lately. They’ve now allowed 26 pts or more in four straight games, including 30+ pts in consecutive games.
Historically, the Saints are 40-30-1 ATS after allowing 24 or more points in consecutive games since 2003, but 30-15-1 ATS under Sean Payton and 10-15 ATS under all other coaches, including 2-6 ATS with Dennis Allen.
This is the first time in two years New Orleans has allowed 30+ in b2b games and since 2000, the Saints are 6-2 SU the game after that tough of a 4-game defensive stretch.
In the last decade, teams to allow 26+ in four straight games 43-86 SU and 51-76-2 ATS in their next game, with the under 84-45 in those contests.
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistent as a road team than as a home team.
They are 22-34 ATS at home and 34-20-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the 3rd-best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the 2nd-worst home team
➤The Saints have lost four consecutive games straight up when having a lead at any point in the contest – the first time they’ve done that since 2012.
➤Justin Herbert has made 69 career starts in the NFL. He is 33-36 SU and 35-32-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 points or fewer, he is 28-10 SU, 26-10-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 points, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 16-9 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 19-23-2 ATS
➤Over the last two seasons, the under is 15-4 in Herbert’s 19 starts – the most profitable QB to the under in that span. Last three years, that is still 25-12 to the under.
The under is 15-2 in Herbert’s last 17 starts since the first few weeks of the regular season last year.
➤Herbert is 20-44-5 (31%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford.
Herbert is 9-29-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,080 — third-worst in NFL last 20 years.
Herbert Second-Half ATS Career
2024: 2-4 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤Herbert has closed as a 7-pt favorite or higher in just seven career starts, with the Chargers 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in those games, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when playing at home.
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➤Josh Allen has 73 wins in his career and 52 of those 73 wins have been by seven points or more. When the spread for Allen is 6 points or more, he is 35-8 SU. 26 of those 35 games he won by 8 points or more.
This week he’s in a tighter spread game on the road in Seattle.
➤The interception-less streak lives on: Allen hasn’t thrown an interception in nine straight games. Prior to this nine-game stretch, he had a pick in 12 of his previous 13 games.
In the last decade, the record for consecutive games without an interception is 10: Jared Goff and Derek Carr.
Since the merger, Josh Allen in 2024 is just the 2nd QB to have 10+ pass TD and 0 INT through his team's first 7 games – Alex Smith did it in 2017.
➤In Allen’s career, he has traveled west to face a team in MST or PST five times and his teams are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, covering the spread by over 7 PPG in those matchups.
➤Since the beginning of last season, Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS at home – the worst mark for any active starting QB in the NFL, with just Sam Howell below Geno, at a 0-7-1 ATS mark at home.
In those 11 home games, Seattle is failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.
This is the first home game since January 2020, where the Seahawks have a 25% ATS win pct at home for the season entering the matchup.
➤Trying to ride Geno during a win streak isn’t the best idea historically. He is 10-15-4 ATS after a SU win in his career.
He was 3-4-2 ATS with the Jets and 7-11-2 ATS with the Seahawks.
Since Geno joined Seattle in 2022, that 7-11-2 ATS mark is 3rd-worst of 75 QBs ahead of just Dak Prescott and Mac Jones.
➤Geno does prefer normalcy in his weekly routine. He’s 22-18 SU on normal 7 day rest and 8-20 SU on short or long rest in his career.
Short rest: 3-10 SU
Normal 7 days rest: 22-18 SU
Extended rest: 5-10 SU
➤Smith is 11-17-2 ATS as a favorite in his career and 23-19-2 ATS as an underdog.
Of Smith's 11 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, he is 2-9 ATS in his career. As a dog, he’s struggled a bit lately, going 5-9 ATS in his last 14 games in the spot
➤Historically, being a home dog has been an advantage in Seattle. They are 25-15-1 ATS as home dogs since 2003, including 11-5 ATS in the first two months of the season.
➤Since Christmas of last year, the Panthers are just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS, with their only win/cover coming against the Raiders the game directly after benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton.
➤The reason for Carolina’s struggles of late has been starting slow. They are 1-13 against the first half spread in their last 14 games overall, worst mark in the NFL in that span.
Last week, the Panthers were shut out in the first half against the Commanders, scoring a total of 7 pts in the game. Teams after losing by 20+ pts are 54.4% 1H ATS over the last decade in their next game.
In 2024, teams after scoring 7 pts or less in their previous game, on normal rest or less before their next game, are 5-1 1H ATS, including 53-39 1H ATS since 2021 and are at a 54% 1H ATS clip over the last 20 years.
➤The defense really hasn’t helped Carolina recently. The Panthers have scored 20 points or more seven times since the start of last season, they are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in those games – both marks worst in the NFL in that span – with all seven games going over the total.
➤The Panthers have been an underdog in 27 straight games (36 of last 37) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Sept. 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
➤With Andy Dalton, it tends to start decent and fade from there. Between the Panthers and Saints, he is 4-11 2H ATS in his last 15 starts.
➤Last week was the first time a game featuring Andy Dalton at QB went under the total over the last two seasons, now at 5-1. In those games, the over is cashing by 10.8 PPG. His +$354 on overs in that span ($100/bet) is the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only Jared Goff.
➤The Broncos haven’t closed above a 7-pt favorite since Sept. 18, of 2022 – over two years ago, which was Week 2 of the season against the Texans behind QB Russell Wilson.
Bo Nix will be the first Broncos rookie QB to be above a 7-pt favorite since Drew Lock in 2019.
The last QB to cover a game for Denver as above a 7-pt favorite came back in 2021 under Teddy Bridgewater.
➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 4-0 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 13.8 PPG. In his career, Sean Payton is 81-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
At home has been a different story, Nix is 1-2 SU/ATS, scoring 34 pts in his only win and 22 total pts combined in his two losses. Denver is 8-12 ATS at home since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 20-28 ATS at home.
➤For the first time this season, the Broncos and Payton will play a game on some extended rest after beating the Saints on TNF last week.
Home hasn’t been friendly in terms of covering for Payton off extended rest, since the calendar turned to 2019, he is just 2-7 ATS in that spot.
➤Teams coming off a SU road win, who play at home on extended rest are 64% SU since 2017, but only 53-69-4 ATS (43%) in that span.
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➤What a disaster of a performance last week by the Raiders. They had 4 turnovers, with 10 penalties and zero red zone scores … but still covered the spread.
Teams with 4+ TO were 12-102-1 ATS (11%) since 2020 entering last week. There were 39 games since 2001 where a team had 4+ TO, 10+ penalties and 0 scores in RZ. They were 2-36-1 ATS entering last week.
Since 2011, teams off 4+ TO and 10+ penalties are just 19-28 SU and 18-29 ATS in their next game, with those games 27-19-1 to the over.
➤Brock Bowers has been the main target in Vegas this year. Last week, he had 10 of 21 receptions on the team and 14 of 35 total targets.
Since Week 4, the first week without Davante Adams in the lineup, Bowers leads all TEs in target share pct for Vegas and is T-3rd in the NFL in receptions, among all players.
Bowers’ 60 targets through 7 career games is most all-time (since targets tracked in 1992), 7 more than Evan Engram in 2017.
Bowers’ 47 receptions through 7 career games is most all-time, 9 more than Jordan Reed in 2013.
➤The Raiders are having a tough time staying close in games this year. They have fallen behind by double-digits in each of the first 7 games of the season. They are just the 4th team to do that in the last 30 years.
2024 Raiders
2019 Dolphins
2013 Jaguars
1998 Washington
➤Patrick Mahomes has 22 INT in the regular season since the start of last year, the most of any QB in the NFL.
Most regular season interceptions since start of last season
22 — Patrick Mahomes
21 — Sam Howell
19 — Jordan Love
19 — Jalen Hurts
➤Mahomes has gone back-to-back games without throwing a TD pass for the second time in his career. He also did it in Weeks 11 and 13 of 2021 vs. Cowboys and Broncos.
Mahomes is now 8-3 SU in his career when throwing 0 pass TD.
➤This season, Mahomes is 6-0 against the second-half spread, T-best mark in the NFL with Caleb Williams.
Dating back to last year, Mahomes has covered the 2H spread in 11 straight games, including going 13-1 2H ATS in his last 14 starts.
➤Chiefs are 6-0 SU this season, the only remaining undefeated team. KC’s point differential is sitting at a +43.
Worst point differential for 6-0 team in the Super Bowl era
2015 Broncos +37
2024 Chiefs +43
2000 Vikings +43
Chiefs are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games including playoffs, but have won by a combined total of only 84 points, with no wins of 20 pts or more, the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight without a 20+ pt win.
➤Part of the Chiefs success has been the defense. Allowing 27 pts or less now in 27 consecutive games – T-15th longest streak since the merger and longest for any team since the 2005 Ravens, who did it in 29 straight games.
➤The Chiefs are coming off a win against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 3-3 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 12-28 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
➤On the road against divisional opponents, Mahomes has been almost unbeatable. He is 18-1 SU, 11-7-1 ATS – his only SU loss came to the Broncos last season.
➤When Mahomes is on a road trip – 2nd game or later on the road – he is 14-2 SU, 8-7-1 ATS – but 6-0 SU, 2-3-1 ATS vs. AFC West teams.
In games played in MST or PST, he is 20-3 SU and 13-8-2 ATS career.
➤Mahomes’ average depth of target has been a large story for the Chiefs…
Patrick Mahomes average depth of target
5.7 — 2024
6.6 — 2023
7.4 — 2022
7.3 — 2021
8.4 — 2020
8.8 — 2019
9.1 — 2018
➤As a favorite of 7 pts or more, Mahomes is 22-27-3 ATS in his career, on the road that falls to just 5-10-2 ATS and overall as a favorite of 7+ pts, he is 10-12-2 ATS vs. AFC West teams.
➤The Bears are off a bye week with some time to prepare for Washington this week.
Under Matt Eberflus, the Bears have played three games on more than ten days rest and Chicago is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, being listed as an underdog in all three of those games. Bears are 5-2 ATS on extended rest under Eberflus.
➤If Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels face off, here is the history of No. 1 vs. No. 2 picks in their rookie seasons, both as QBs. QBs went 1-2 in the 2024 draft for the 11th time in the Super Bowl era. This will be the 5th time both QBs will meet that same season.
2023: Bryce Young +3.5 beat CJ Stroud at home
2021: Zach Wilson -2.5 won/covered vs. Trevor Lawrence at home
2015: Marcus Mariota +3 beat Jameis Winston on the road
1998: Peyton Manning -1 won/covered vs. Ryan Leaf at home
QBs went 1-2 in the 2024 draft for the 11th time in the Super Bowl era. This will be the fourth time both QBs will meet that same season.
In case Jayden Daniels can’t go this week, we will still see a No. 1 vs. No. 2, with Marcus Mariota slated to start for Washington.
➤Only two QBs are 6-0 against the second-half spread or better this season entering this week: Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams.
Rookie QBs are 17-7 against the second-half spread this season, with Caleb, Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels a combined 17-3 2H ATS.
➤Part of why Washington has been so good this season is their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th down.
On 4th down, they are 9-9 this season. Only Buffalo is also 100% on 4th down this year.
On 3rd down, Washington is 40-82, 48.8% – the 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
➤Washington’s efficiency this year has been through the roof. Their percent of drives ending in an offensive score is 64.1% – the 2nd-best on that list is the Ravens at 50.7%.
How good has their offense been? Washington has punted 12 times in seven games, that is tied with the 2021 Chiefs for the fewest punts through seven games since 1950.
➤If Washington starts Marcus Mariota, you may want to pay attention to the 1H line. He is 28-45-3 1H ATS career. Of 262 QBs in the last 20 years, Mariota ranks 260th.
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➤Dating back to last season, the Cowboys have struggled ATS recently. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games –tied for the worst mark for any NFL team in that span.
➤Dak has had his struggles as an underdog. He’s 17-19 ATS in his career, but 2-9 ATS as an underdog in his last 11 starts.
Since 2020, he’s 4-11 ATS as a dog. Here are the only QBs worse: Bryce Young, Minshew, Fields and Mac Jones.
➤Dak Prescott is 29-12 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,541) | 38-46-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,031).
Since 2003, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
In his career, Dak is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS at night vs. NFC East teams and he is just 12-14-1 ATS vs. non-NFC East teams in night games.
➤In Dak’s career, he has played 24 games on extended rest during the season, and he is 18-6 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 5.9 PPG.
Dak has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games on extended rest and is 12-3 ATS in the spot since 2019, best mark in the NFL.
➤Since 2003, the most profitable coach ATS on extended rest? Mike McCarthy at 38-23-3 ATS (62.3%). He was 25-18-3 ATS with the Packers and is 13-5 ATS with the Cowboys.
Prescott has faced the 49ers five times in his career. He started 2-0 SU/ATS and has since lost three straight games SU/ATS vs. San Francisco.
In night games vs. SF, Dak is 0-2 SU/ATS – scoring a total of 22 pts in two games.
➤Brock Purdy has made 12 starts at night for the 49ers. He is 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS in those games.
Purdy is 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS at home in night games.
➤In Purdy’s career as a starter, he has done a great job winning games on a homestand (2nd consecutive home game or later). He is 7-1 SU, with his only loss coming in his last game in this spot earlier this year vs. Cardinals.
➤Purdy is 18-16 ATS in his NFL career. When he’s favored by 4 pts or more, he’s 10-13 ATS, when he’s favored by 3.5 pts or less or an underdog, Purdy is 8-3 ATS.
➤Purdy is 7-4 ATS vs. NFC West opponents and just 11-12 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
➤Dating back to Christmas of last year, Purdy is just 1-6 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU on the season, with his lone cover coming against the Seahawks on TNF this year.
➤The 49ers are now 4-6 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play. His teams (Panthers, Niners) are 21-32 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
In games McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers have played four games without Deebo Samuel in the lineup and they are 0-4 SU, scoring exactly 17 points in two games last season, 24 points in Week 3 vs. Rams and just 18 points vs. Chiefs.
Overall, the Niners have played 19 games without Deebo in his career and are 8-11 SU. Here is how they’ve performed based on how many touches (Rec + Rush Att) he gets:
38-13 SU – 7 touches or more
19-14 – 6 touches or less
7-7 – 3 touches or less
➤The Pittsburgh Steelers are tough to beat at any time or place under Mike Tomlin. But at home, under the lights, especially on MNF, it’s another level.
Dating back to 1992, the Steelers are 21-1 SU in home MNF games, with their only loss coming to Washington back in 2020.
➤Another week, another New York team in primetime at night.
The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-32 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games back in 2015 – they are 11-45 SU in primetime since then.
➤The Giants defense has been a tough unit to deal with so far in 2024.
Dexter Lawrence has been double-teamed on 63.3% of his pass rushes this season, the highest rate faced by any player since at least 2018 (min. 100 pass rushes via Next Gen Stats).
Giants lead the NFL in sacks this year with 31 – most sacks for any team through seven games since 2017 Jaguars and 5th-most sacks since 2000. They are also 3rd in QB hits and 3rd in opp 3rd down conversion pct.
➤Russell Wilson brought a different spark to Pittsburgh’s offense last week vs. Jets.
Through the first six weeks of the season, Pittsburgh’s yards per play sat at 4.76, 26th in the NFL. Last week, that number jumped to 6.2 yards per play, which was 7th in the NFL.
➤Wilson started his career 24-7-3 ATS in night games with the Seahawks, between 2012-18. Since then, he is 8-16 ATS in night games.
The 24-7-3 ATS mark was best in the NFL.
The 8-16 ATS mark is second-worst of 90 QBs, ahead of only Tom Brady.
When Russ is listed as a favorite at night in primetime, he is 27-7 SU in his career, including 9-1 SU as a favorite of 7 pts or more.
➤The Steelers' second-half defense has been strong this year. Opponents are scoring 5.1 pts per second half against Pittsburgh, lowest mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh has yet to allow a single point coming out of the locker room for the second half in the third quarter this year.
➤Once again, Daniel Jones finds himself in primetime.
Jones is 1-15 SU and 6-10 ATS at night in his career, including 0-8 SU at home and 1-7 SU on the road at night.
Since 2003, Jones’ 1-15 SU (6%) mark is the lowest win percentage among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 5 starts.
➤In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-19-1 SU, 22-17 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 6-23 SU, 13-16 ATS.
The 6-23 SU mark after 1p ET is ranked 109th of 111 QBs in ML profitability since he was drafted.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Teams don't like getting embarrassed. After losing big and then being a dog over some key numbers the following week is a good recipe to cover the number.
Matches: CAR, DAL
System: When both teams are on short rest, early overs have been the calling card.
Matches: LAR/MIN
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System: Business trips have been a profitable betting strategy so far in 2024.
Matches: MIN, DAL, CAR, NO, ATL, TEN, NYJ, NYG
System: Specific spots where one team wins by 17+ and the other loses by 17+ creates a unique spot the following week.
Matches: CAR, NYG
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