Welcome back to The Lookahead.
While everyone else is still busy betting on this weekend's games, we're getting out ahead of things with a pair of picks for next Sunday. It's all about locking in that sweet closing line value (CLV) and gobbling up easy line value before this week's results move next week's lines.
Last week's Lookahead CLV is looking good. We grabbed Seahawks +7.5 and that one has since dropped as low as +4.5, crossing two key numbers and giving us a full field goal of value. We also got Chiefs -1.5 and that one's up to -2.5 and has been at -3 much of the week, another key number or two.
If you wanted to bet Seahawks +7.5 now as an alternate line, you'd pay around -185 at most books. We're getting 75 cents of value for free! That's huge.
We've already got your Sunday picks covered, so let's look ahead and get some more CLV for those Week 8 games before the weekend.
Let's take a quick trip down memory lane.
Do you remember a Panthers 38-0 beat down of the Falcons in early December 2015? Cam Newton and Carolina rolled, and the team was preening and taking pictures, celebrating during the game. The Falcons were nonplussed, as the Panthers moved to 13-0 on the season.
Two weeks later, the teams met again and Atlanta ended Carolina's perfect season. And ever since that game, the Falcons have played the Panthers like they took that game personally. Atlanta has won 10-of-13 (77%) matchups since, covering in every win.
They may not need that much motivation this time, because these Panthers stink.
Carolina has lost three straight games by double digits, with a whopping two offensive touchdowns in those games. And as 13-point underdogs this weekend (vs. Tampa Bay), that streak should stretch to four. The Panthers are terrible and appear to be outright tanking for a top draft pick at this point.
When I made this pick on the Action Network Podcast yesterday, I noted that the Panthers might not even look themselves by this game since it's two days before the Trade Deadline. Christian McCaffrey is now gone (along with Robbie Anderson), and others could be on their way out the door as well.
Carolina ranks last in offensive DVOA on the season, and that was with McCaffrey and Anderson. Now it's P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard season. The Falcons defense isn't good, but Carolina isn't good enough to threaten them.
Atlanta's offense, however, continues to perform well. The Falcons rank seventh in offensive DVOA and lead the league in rushing. Arthur Smith is expertly using his running attack to keep the chains moving and open up play-action.
The Falcons genuinely look good, and the Panthers do not. Atlanta gets to play Carolina twice in the next month, so this is a great time to buy Falcons futures, and it's a must-grab Lookahead since this line is certain to jump past the key number by Sunday night.
THE PICK: Bet Falcons -6.5
Let's stick with the bird theme and head back to Seattle island.
I keep trying to tell you: The Seahawks are good! The Giants are 5-1, but the numbers say Seattle has been the better football team, and by a sizable margin. Just let the metrics speak for themselves:
| Seahawks | Giants | |
| OVERALL | 9 | 18 |
| Offense | 4 | 13 |
| Passing Offense | 3 | 12 |
| Rushing Offense | 12 | 11 |
| Defense | 22 | 30 |
| Passing Defense | 26 | 20 |
| Rushing Defense | 21 | 28 |
The numbers tell us Seattle is better at nearly everything. Even the maligned Seattle defense is better than New York's, and that Seahawks defense is up to 11th in DVOA over the past three weeks.
Credit the Giants for finding ways to win, and Brian Daboll has done a great job, but the G-Men are 5-1 in one-score games — all of them so far — and that screams luck and regression to the mean. Our Action Network Luck Rankings back this up, rating the Giants the luckiest team in the NFL.
Seattle is playing good football.
Rookie Kenneth Walker has run the ball well, and Geno Smith continues to match numbers with almost any QB in football, dialing it up deep to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. This offense has been explosive and consistent, and the defense is improving rapidly.
At worst, these teams are equal, and Seattle is playing at home in one of the few places that still has a real home-field advantage. That alone tells us this line is short, and sure enough, there are already some Seahawks -1.5, -2 and even -2.5 in the market. This is an arbitrage play as much as anything at -1 at Westgate.
The Seahawks are a popular underdog pick this weekend against the Chargers, while the Giants are road underdogs. If Seattle wins and New York loses, this probably gets to at least -3 by Sunday night. Even if it doesn't make it that far, one and two are key numbers these days.
The Seahawks are playing good football and the market hasn't caught up, while the Giants have become overrated with their luck in the wins column and hype in a big market.
This is a great chance to buy low and sell high with an arbitrage spot on the market. Grab Seahawks -1 before Sunday.
THE PICK: Bet Seahawks -1
