Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 8 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Week 8 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 8 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Vikings
Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 91.1%
2. Steelers
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 90.4%
T-3. Patriots
Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 88%
T-3. Rams
Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 88%
5. Saints
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
6. Lions
Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 75.7%
T-7. Texans
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-7. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-9. 49ers
Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
T-9. Colts
Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
T-11. Titans
Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-11. Packers
Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-11. Seahawks
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-11. Bears
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
15. Bills
Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
16. Eagles
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-17. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-17. Chargers
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-17. Falcons
Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-17. Buccaneers
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-21. Panthers
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-21. Broncos
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-23. Raiders
Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
T-23. Jets
Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
25. Giants
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 24.3%
26. Cardinals
Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
T-27. Bengals
Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 12%
T-27. Browns
Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 12%
29. Dolphins
Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 9.6%
30. Redskins
Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 8.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
T-1. Jaguars
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ
T-1. Chiefs
Spread: +4.5
Opponent: vs. GB
T-3. Lions
Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. NYG
T-3. Chargers
Spread: +4
Opponent: @ CHI
T-5. Steelers
Spread: -14.5
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-5. Patriots
Spread: -13
Opponent: vs. CLE
T-5. Texans
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. OAK
T-5. 49ers
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. CAR
T-5. Titans
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. TB
T-5. Eagles
Spread: +2
Opponent: @ BUF
T-5. Falcons
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. SEA
T-5. Redskins
Spread: +16
Opponent: @ MIN
T-13. Rams
Spread: -13.5
Opponent: vs. CIN
T-13. Saints
Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. ARI
T-13. Colts
Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. DEN
T-13. Broncos
Spread: +6
Opponent: @ IND
T-13. Cardinals
Spread: +10
Opponent: @ NO
T-13. Bengals
Spread: +13.5
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-19. Vikings
Spread: -16
Opponent: vs. WAS
T-19. Seahawks
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ ATL
T-19. Bills
Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. PHI
T-19. Buccaneers
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ TEN
T-19. Panthers
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ SF
T-19. Raiders
Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ HOU
T-19. Browns
Spread: +13
Opponent: @ NE
T-19. Dolphins
Spread: +14.5
Opponent: @ PIT
T-27. Bears
Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. LAC
T-27. Giants
Spread: +7
Opponent: @ DET
T-29. Packers
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: @ KC
T-29. Jets
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ JAX
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
