NFL Week 8 Picks
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Saints are coming off of a beat down on Thursday Night Football, losing to the Cardinals 43-34. The Raiders beat the Texans 38-20 on Sunday on the back of Josh Jacobs and with a late pick six.
The score of the Saints' last game does not accurately depict their performance. Andy Dalton threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns at the end of the first half, one of which was on WR Marquez Callaway for bobbling the ball. The Saints out-gained the Cardinals by over 150 yards but lost because of turnovers from their backup QB.
It is possible that Jameis WInston and Micheal Thomas will be back for this game, which could take the Saints from being an underdog, to being a favorite. I expect to see some sharp money roll in on the Saints as the week goes.
This is a great opportunity to buy low on New Orleans coming off of a long week.
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Brandon Anderson: Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane.
Do you remember a Panthers 38–0 beat down of the Falcons in early December 2015? Cam Newton and Carolina rolled, and the team was preening and taking pictures, celebrating during the game. The Falcons were nonplussed, as the Panthers moved to 13–0 on the season.
Two weeks later, the teams met again and Atlanta ended Carolina’s perfect season. And ever since that game, the Falcons have played the Panthers like they took that game personally. Atlanta has won 10-of-13 (77%) matchups since, covering in every win.
Carolina blew out a stinky Bucs no-show Sunday, but that doesn’t throw me off the scent. It’s telling that Carolina won by multiple scores, Atlanta lost by the same, and this line didn’t budge. Good for the Panthers for an inspiring win, but it changed little for me. Teams coming off a blowout against the spread (ATS) win (by 26+) are 49-77-6 ATS (39%) the following week, and teams that win by 17 facing an opponent that lost by 17 are 64-102-4 ATS (39%).
Coming into Sunday, Carolina had lost three straight games by double digits, with a whopping two offensive touchdowns in those games. The offense got a few long plays Sunday but still doesn’t look particularly reliable or dangerous, regardless of who plays QB next week.
Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson are already gone, and with the Trade Deadline only a week away, we could still see others like D.J. Moore or Brian Burns out the door. Sunday was fun, but this team is and should be tanking.
Carolina entered Sunday ranked dead last in offensive DVOA, and that was with McCaffrey and Anderson. Now it’s P.J. Walker, D’Onta Foreman, and Chuba Hubbard season. The Falcons defense isn’t good and got exploited by a loaded Bengals offense, but Carolina ain’t that.
Atlanta’s offense continues to perform well. The Falcons rank seventh in offensive DVOA and lead the league in rushing. Arthur Smith is using his running attack to keep the chains moving and open up play-action.
Don’t be fooled by Sunday. The Falcons look like a competent franchise, and the Panthers do not. The Falcons are tied for the division lead and get to play Carolina twice in the next two weeks, so this is a great time to buy Falcons futures.
Sunday was a gift. This line should be on the other side of the key number and I still think it could move that way quickly.
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Blake Krass: I wrote up why you should bet the Commanders against the Packers this past week, and Washington ended up winning outright. That makes it three straight losses for the Packers to the Giants, Jets and Commanders. However, the Jets and Giants both just keep winning so maybe those losses are not as bad in retrospect.
Now, I think this is the perfect opportunity to bet the Packers at an all-time low.
The public has watched the Packers suffer those three losses in their past three games. Meanwhile, the Bills have rolled to 5-1 this season, with wins over the Rams, Ravens and Chiefs along the way.
All of that results in this being the first time that Aaron Rodgers has ever been a double-digit underdog. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have not been underdogs very often, but they are 10-4 (71.4%) ATS when they have been.
This Packers defense is also designed to face the Bills. Green Bay cannot stop the run (32nd in DVOA entering Week 7) but is very competitive against the pass (ninth in DVOA entering Week 7). The Packers will also have a chance to get some players back from injury before next week which could really help them.
I like the Packers at the current price of +10.5 and think they keep it a one-score game. I would play this down to +8.5.
