I'm back with three bets for Week 7. My NFL predictions are 17-12 (+8.66%, +2.59 units) over the last 30 days as of Saturday night.
I'm on an under, a spread and a moneyline for Sunday's slate of games. I'm backing one pinch-your-nose underdog and a betting favorite on the road. Road favorites are 16-3 against the spread (ATS) since the start of Week 5, and I'm betting one and fading another this week.
Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Week 8 Picks
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NFL Prediction for Ravens vs. Browns
This is the closest the Browns have been in 2024 to resembling their 2023 playoff team. Despite dropping their fifth straight and falling to 1-6 on the season, I’ve upgraded the Browns heading into this week.
Why?
Because the Browns are at home once again, and the savagery their fanbase displayed last week when Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury warrants a substantial upgrade to their home-field advantage.
I kid, but in all seriousness, it does start at the quarterback position.
According to rbsdm.com, Watson is 50th of 53 QBs with 400 dropbacks since 2021 in Expected Points Added Per Dropback (EPA/DB) at -0.118. Winston? Sixteenth (0.103).
You have to lower the dropback threshold to 150 for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but somewhat hilariously, he’s somehow been even worse than Watson, ranking 77th of 80 among QBs with an EPA/DB mark of -0.263.
Make no mistake, Winston’s ceiling as an NFL quarterback tops out somewhere between below-average and mid, but he looks like a first-ballot Hall of Famer compared to the clown show the Browns have been trotting out at the position this season.
The quarterback change accounts for the largest upgrade, but the Browns pass offense is trending up across the board, which is important because the Ravens defense is first in yards per carry (3.5) but 30th in yards per pass attempt (8.1). Here's where else Cleveland is looking better:
- Offensive Line. Right tackle Jack Conklin returned to the lineup two weeks ago and hasn’t allowed a sack on 69 pass-blocking snaps. There’s also a decent chance All-Pro right guard Wyatt Teller will play for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 3 after practicing in full on Friday.
- Tight End. David Njoku finally looks healthy after missing three games earlier this season. He broke out for 10-76-1 last week and now faces a Ravens defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against tight ends.
- Wide Receiver. The Browns are down their WR1 after trading Amari Cooper to Buffalo last week, but that’s offset by the Ravens being down their CB1 with Marlon Humphrey (knee) listed as doubtful. In fact, these developments arguably favor the Browns, because Cooper was posting dismal efficiency (4.7 yards per target) on high volume (8.8 targets per game) while Humphrey’s 85.1 PFF coverage grade ranks second among 105 qualified corners. Cedric Tillman’s 8 public-betting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">receptions last week are more than Cooper has in any game this season, and Tillman’s 81 yards are more than Cooper has in all but one game.
- Running Back. While Nick Chubb in his second game back since suffering a career-threatening knee injury last September has no impact on the spread for me, there’s at least an outside shot he raises the ceiling of what has been a bottom-five rushing offense.
The wild card is Kevin Stefanski handing over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Given that the Browns are lacking in attention to detail – they're the most penalized team in the NFL – and given that Buffalo’s decision to fire Dorsey seemed to have more to do with philosophical differences than with performance, I’d lean toward it having a slightly positive impact on the team as a whole.
Defensively, the Browns are also inching back toward resembling the unit that finished second in DVOA last season. Starting safeties Juan Thornhill and Grant Delpit were active at the same time for the first time since Week 2, when the Browns allowed a season-low 13 points to the Jaguars. Meanwhile, Ravens WR1 Zay Flowers is questionable with an ankle injury that limited him to just one practice this week and could be hampered given the quick turnaround from Monday Night Football.
Despite having a two-time MVP at quarterback, the Ravens struggle to cover large spreads because their defense has a tendency to let teams hang around. Per our Action Labs data, the Ravens are 24-33-1 (42%) against the spread (ATS) in Lamar Jackson’s starts when favored by more than -3, including 17-26-1 (39%) when favored by more than -5.
Bet to: +7
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NFL Over/Under Prediction for Eagles vs. Bengals
Despite the Eagles scoring 28 points against the Giants last week, the state of their offense is concerning due to the absence of left tackle Jordan Mailata, who is on IR with a hamstring injury. With an 88.4 PFF grade, Mailata ranks as the second-best tackle in football. Mailata’s replacement is Fred Johnson, who has allowed a pressure rate of 22.7%, the worst of 80 qualified tackles and nearly four times the league average for tackles of 6.2%.
With Mailata out of the lineup last week, Jalen Hurts was pressured on 48% of his dropbacks and passed for only 114 yards while taking four sacks. Part of that is due to facing Myles Garrett and Brian Burns in back-to-back weeks, but it won’t get any easier for Johnson this week against Trey Hendrickson.
The Eagles will also be without tight end Dallas Goedert (hamstring) for a second straight game.
Meanwhile, the Bengals caught a tough break when Tee Higgins suffered a quad injury in Friday’s practice. Higgins is 12th in receptions per game (5.8) and 11th in receiving yards per game (68.2). Higgins being out or even limited would be a major blow offense since it would allow Philadelphia to dedicate more double-teams to Chase.
Meanwhile, both teams are trending up defensively. The Eagles defense was always going to take time to gel while learning new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s complex scheme, and thus greatly benefitted from an early bye in Week 5. In two games since the bye, the Eagles allowed 9.5 points and 181.5 total yards while registering 6.5 sacks compared to 24.0 points, 365.8 total yards, and 1.5 sacks in four games before the bye. Some of that is due to playing the Browns and Giants listless offenses, but good defenses are supposed to dominate inferior competition, so I’m not chalking up their entire uptick solely to strength of schedule.
The key for the Eagles is that they’re already starting to get positive ROI from their pair of rookie corners. First-rounder Quinyon Mitchell has allowed a catch rate of just 54.8% and a passer rating of just 79.8 on 31 targets. DeJean’s sample is smaller, but he has allowed only 20 receiving yards on 63 coverage snaps. Even 33-year-old Darius Slay is playing well, with 128 yards allowed on 200 coverage snaps.
The Bengals are much healthier on defense than they were earlier in the year, especially along the defensive line, with B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins back in action, which has shored up their run defense.
The Bengals are No. 1 on defense in explosive (20-plus-yard) pass rate (4.6%), and the Eagles are No. 8 (7.2%). Both teams are also above-average at limiting explosive runs, so we should see some longer drives even when these teams do score.
Referee John Hussey should also help the cause for the under. According to NFLPenalties.com, Hussey has called only five roughing-the-passer penalties in 40 games since the start of 2022, while the league average over that span is triple that. According to Per NFLPer our Action Labs data, the under is 66-43-3 (61%) in outdoor games Hussey has reffed, covering by just under 2 points per game on average.
This game also qualifies as a Luck Under in our Luck Rankings. It has a Luck Total of -5.6, which means they would be expected to score 5.6 fewer points per game after factoring out luck. Games below -5.0 in Week 3 or later are 130-91-3 (59%) since 2018.
Bet to: 46
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NFL Moneyline Pick on Bears vs. Commanders
Jayden Daniels already looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but even if he weren’t battling a rib injury that is expected to sideline him this week, the Commanders offense would be in for some serious regression. The Commanders have scored on 64.1% of their drives, which is simply unsustainable. No team this century has finished higher than 52.8%, and that was the 2007 New England Patriots, who had Tom Brady at QB1 and Randy Moss at WR1.
The job Kliff Kingsbury has done with the offense this season looks even better in light of Kyler Murray’s uneven play over the past couple of years, but for context, Kingsbury’s offenses averaged a 39.0% drive scoring rate with a high of 44.7% across his four seasons in Arizona, and Murray is a far superior quarterback to Marcus Mariota.
It’s worth noting that Daniels hasn’t technically been ruled out, but according to public betting data in the Action App, the majority of the handle has been on Washington all week, yet the line has continued to move toward Chicago, which is a strong indicator that he’s not expected to play. After it was initially reported that Daniels was not spotted at practice, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn claimed that Daniels did indeed practice out of view of the media, which seems more like gamesmanship than anything.
Regardless of who is behind center, the Bears will pose a tough test on defense. They rank fifth in drive scoring rate allowed (30.0%) and seventh in defensive DVOA. Dating back to last season, they’ve held 10 of their last 12 opponents to under 20 points and haven’t allowed a single game of more than 21 points.
The knock on the Bears is they’ve faced a soft strength of schedule, but especially if you take Daniels’ hyper-efficient passing out of the equation, and Washington starts to look like another one of those cushy matchups. Their biggest threat at receiver is Terry McLaurin, but the Bears have Jaylon Johnson, who was No. 1 in PFF grade among corners last season and is No. 6 this season.
The Bears have been leaky against the run at times (24th in DVOA), but are coming off their best performance of the season in holding Jacksonville to 20 carries for 68 yards, and they’ll be able to dedicate more resources to stopping the run with Mariota at quarterback and an uninspiring group of pass-catchers behind McLaurin (Noah Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Zach Ertz).
Offensively, the Bears have been improving both schematically and execution-wise each week.
Caleb Williams looked rough the first two weeks, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. In four games since, he’s averaging 7.9 YPA with 9 TDs and 3 picks. He’s no Daniels as a runner, but he has been productive on the ground with 28.2 rushing yards per game on the season, including 45.0 over his past two games. Williams now gets to face a Commanders defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass and 20th versus the run.
Per our Action Labs data, the Bears are 11-4-1 since trading for former Commander defensive end Montez Sweat last November, covering by 6.1 points per game.
Bet to: -175
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